2020 Record  45-48-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Mr. Over/Under: TEASER- Bills-Chiefs UNDER/ GB-TB UNDER

Weather forecasts can change by the minute and this weekend there’s a good chance that weather will affect at least one of the NFL games if not both. As of today (Thursday), Kansas City is calling for rain and Green Bay is calling for snow. I’m liking the under for both games this weekend, however I wouldn’t even consider such a bet until Sunday morning, when I’ll have a real good idea what the weather will be.

The Bills were the hottest and highest scoring team in the NFL towards the end of the regular season. In their two playoff games, they’ve only averaged 22 points, which is how many points the Chiefs scored in their playoff victory over Cleveland. While the Bills were 11-5 against the spread in the regular season, KC was 6-9-1. Over/Under the Bills were 12-4 while KC was 7-8-1.

Green Bay ended their season scoring 40  & 35 points respectively; while Tampa ended their season scoring 47 & 44.The big difference I see here is that Tampa played Detroit and Atlanta their last 2 games. Two teams with a combined record of 9-23, while Green Bay played Tennessee & Chicago, which had a combined record of 19-13.

If the weather is snowy in Green Bay on Sunday, take the under. If not, then parley the two games under, on a 7 point teaser. That would be the Green Bay game under 59 and the Bill’s game under 63.

Man in Stripes:  Teaser: Packers +3, Bills +9

Plain and simple the Packers are the better team in the cold.  Aaron Rodgers and company in cold weather have been unstoppable. TB 12 and the Bucs have been getting a ton of breaks.  The Saints gift-wrapped last week’s game.  Pack and getting three, I’m in.

 

Bills are 9-1 ATS the last 10. The Chiefs are 1-9. Mahomes is banged up and looks tired.  They were ready to be beaten last week. THEY WILL GET BEAT THIS WEEK! The Bills are healthier and match-up well against the Chiefs. Chiefs don’t run the ball a lot and their D stinks. The Bills have survived the last two games and they bring their A game this week. JA and Co. too much for mediocre defense.  Bills OUTRIGHT!!

Mono:  Stefon Diggs over 7.5 receptions

The Bills go as Diggs goes and Josh Allen.  Allen has made it a point to get him the ball ever since the first loss to KC.  The Chiefs secondary is hurt.  Even with Bashaud Breeland possibly coming back, nobody can guard Diggs. We’ve watched him make almost every DB lined up against him fall at least once a game. Expect Allen to look for Diggs on several crossing routes, a few screens and deep balls as well. Diggs get at least half of his total by half time.

Brutal: Bills +3 over Kansas City

Cleveland could have beaten the Chiefs last week.  I didn’t like the play calling by Cleveland or they could have won.  Mahomes was limping all day before his concussion.  I have to believe that foot still is a problem this week.  If it weren’t for that cruel touchback rule they would have lost.  How long can Kansa City keep winning these close games?  The Chiefs red zone offense has been a problem for weeks.  The Bills red zone defense has been outstanding this year.  I like the demeanor of the Bills.  They have the right team to go into KC and win.  I think the clock runs out on KC.

Bob Gaughan: Josh Allen over 302 passing yards

I expect a totally different game than the one that was played in Buffalo earlier this year.  The Bills played very passive on defense and hardly blitzed all day.  The Bills will challenge the Chiefs offense more this time.  On offense the winds were howling and the Chiefs sat on all of the short routes for the Bills.  Allen couldn’t burn them deep because the wind wouldn’t allow it.  As a result the Bills only threw for 122 yards.  I think that keeps this line a little lower than it should be. The Bills didn’t have a great offensive day last week.  That was against one of the best secondary’s in football with the Ravens.  Another reason the line is down.  The Chiefs secondary can be had.  This should be entertaining as the Bills go toe to toe with the Chiefs.  The Bills aren’t even trying to run.  Take Allen over his passing yards.

 

Bob Gaughan

Bob Gaughan has worked in Buffalo media for over 25 years. He spent 15 of those years as a staple on WGR radio as a talk show host and sports director. Currently, Bob works for UB Athletics on the radio broadcast of football and women’s basketball. Off the air, he has been an adjunct professor for over 20 years at Buffalo State College where he developed and has taught a class on how to be a talk show host.

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