by Bob Gaughan, Buffalo Sports Page
2020 record 9-5-1
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Mr. Over/Under: New Orleans -4 over Detroit
Last year after 3-weeks in the NFL, the favorites won 30 and lost 17 with one tie. This year the favorites won 33 and lost 15. But against the spread this year the favorites are 23 and 25.
Last year at this time 22 games went over while 26 went under, as the defense usually has the advantage at the beginning of the year. However, this year 28 of the 48 games have gone over, as scoring has been much higher.
Last year the Bills first three games went under. This year they’ve gone over. Vegas seems to have caught on, as last week there were 4 games with odds of scoring 50 points or more. This week there are 8.
The New Orleans Saints have been scoring, but not winning. They can’t afford to lose 3-in-a-row. They’re indoors at Detroit, who lucked out last week due to 3 interceptions. I like New Orleans -4.
Man in Stripes: TCU +13 over Texas
Tough spot last week for TCU, as their opener the week prior had been cancelled. They didn’t play well in a loss to Iowa State. Texas played poorly but pulled out an unlikely win over Texas Tech. TCU has owned this series of late 6-2 outright and 3-1 in Austin. Gary Patterson will have TCU ready to go and their D usually plays well against a potent Texas offense. The Big 12 is a dog eat dog world, with lots of uncertainty, after last weeks games. These two teams are pretty even and I get Gary Patterson and almost 2 TD’s.
Mono: Tampa Bay -7 over Chargers
The Bucs are beginning to pick up some steam here, which we all knew would happen. Brady will be without pro bowl receiver Chris Godwin, but he still has two good tight ends and Mike Evans. The Chargers defense will show some resistance early. This is the first road start for rookie QB Herbert going up against a top 10 defense. Chargers defense will wear down after Brady keeps them on the field for 35 minutes. Expect Brady and company to pull away in the second half and cover the touchdown spread.
Brutal: Mississippi State -16 over Arkansas
This is the first time that Mike Leach has had a lot of A recruits on defense. He inherited a good defense with some studs. Arkansas has a good defense but it’s against the run. Last week they played great against a run heavy Georgia team. This week is the ultimate pass offense. MSU had 637 yards passing last week and only 9 yards rushing in their upset over LSU. The Arkansas good run defense means nothing this week. Costello looked like a special QB last week. No cow bells or not, MSU rolls at home. It will take a little time for the SEC to adjust to Leach’s Air raid offense.
Bob Gaughan: Dallas -5 over Cleveland
The Cowboys have played a much tougher schedule with losses to the Rams and Seattle. The Browns have beaten Washington and Cincinnati. Dallas is at home and only giving 5. Dallas has the number one offense in football. The Browns are a running team with a suspect passing attack. Baker Mayfield is throwing for only 160 yards a game. Dallas has struggled against three good passing offenses. The Cowboys can stop the Browns running game and the Browns haven’t shown they pass the ball that well. Dallas at home takes it against a Cleveland team that has struggled on the road.
For more picks, check out Bob’s Bets video segment.