2020 record  46-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Mr. Over/Under: First Score Will Be A Field Goal or Safety +140

Every Super Bowl I bet that the first score of the game will be a field goal or safety  It’s a combined bet and in Vegas it’s +140. It has been successful the last 4 out of 5 Super Bowls. Obviously it doesn’t always happen, but my theory is, that a team doesn’t want to screw up when they get in scoring position. So they play it a little conservative, in the beginning, not wanting to have an interception or fumble, and are happy to get some points.

Some casinos force you to choose which team will score first and whether it will be a field goal or TD. In that case I bet on both teams equally to score a field goal first. Those bets are usually around +440. That way, if one of the teams score a field goal first, my winning bet will more than cover my loosing bet. With this game expected to be high scoring, there is a good chance that the first score of the game will be a TD instead of a field goal. But the betting odds are so good, I’ll stick with my theory and hope it’s not too windy.

I do like one other kind of crazy prop bet. Tom Brady will rush for over .5 yards. Assuming he does a quarterback sneak, it’s a winner. Hope you enjoy the game and thank you for checking out my picks this year.

Man in Stripes:  Tampa Bay +10.5 over Kansas City total rushing yards

Am I missing something here?  The Bucs allow 81 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs allow 123 per game.  The Bucs have outgained their last six opponents on the ground. The combo of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones should get plenty of carries on Sunday.  Weather maybe an issue that would mean more running. Tampa wants to keep Mahomes and Company on the sidelines as much as possible. The Chiefs on the other hand will pass, pass and pass some more. This game should remain close, so the Bucs should be able to run for four quarters. I’m get the better running team and the better running defense at about even money, I’m in!

Other picks: Kelse over 7.5 receptions, Brady under 302 yards and opening kickoff NO touchback (+230).

Mono:  Mahomes over 40.5 pass attempts

Considering the Bucs come in with the best running defense in the league. I naturally expect the Chiefs to come in with a pass heavy offense.  That especially holds true with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes on your side. In the regular season match-up Mahomes was able to expose the Bucs defense early and he hit Tyrek Hill for over 200 yards in the first quarter. I don’t expect much success for Hill but I see Mahomes throwing the ball plenty.  He threw 49 times in the first game.

Bonus Pick: Bucs ML- Go with the GOAT. Brady has shown he’s not done and not ready to pass the torch yet. The Bucs offense has a weapons advantage against the KC defense. Even after the Chiefs historic first quarter the Bucs had a chance to win late in the first game. Brady and company take home the trophy.

Brutal: Tampa Bay +3.5 over Kansas City

Tampa Bay can get pressure on Kansas City.  The KC line is banged up.  The Bucs front four should get the job done.  Shaq Barrett, Suh, Vea and Pierre-Paul are the best front four KC will face this year. The Bucs can control the game running the ball. They can keep Mahomes on the sidelines just enough. I just don’t think Kansas City is as good as most people do. Do people forget that San Francisco should have won last year’s Super Bowl? Take the points!

Bob Gaughan: Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 receptions

I see Kansas City playing like they always do.  They will play press coverage and make Tampa Bay wide receivers make plays.  That’s the way DC Steve Spagnuolo plays it.  He’s been successful against Brady in two Super Bowls already.  As a result I see Tom Brady dumping the ball off to his running backs.  Fournette has taken over as the main man in Tampa.  I see him as a big part of the game plan if the Bucs expect to win.

 

Bob Gaughan

Bob Gaughan has worked in Buffalo media for over 25 years. He spent 15 of those years as a staple on WGR radio as a talk show host and sports director. Currently, Bob works for UB Athletics on the radio broadcast of football and women’s basketball. Off the air, he has been an adjunct professor for over 20 years at Buffalo State College where he developed and has taught a class on how to be a talk show host.

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