by Bob Gaughan, Buffalo Sports Page
2020 record: 17-11-2
2019 Record: 62-41-2
2018 Record: 72-50-3
Mr. Over/Under: Steelers-Titans over 50.5
Due to unprecedented high scoring in the NFL, during the first 4 weeks, Vegas was getting a little carried away with their over/under lines, which resulted in only 4 games going over last week. Compare that to 11 games going over in week two.
When betting over/unders, the one thing you should be aware of, starting in late October, is weather. It definitely had an effect on the Bills/Chiefs game, where the over/under was 57, but under a constant rain the two teams only scored 43 points.
That’s why I rarely will bet an over/under more than 4 hours before game time, if the game is in an outdoor stadium. The Steelers and Titans have been lighting up the scoreboard. As of Thursday the forecast for Nashville on Sunday is cloudy and 70, with no rain the previous day. Assuming this forecast is correct, I see no reason why this game shouldn’t go over.
Man in Stripes: Carolina +7.5 over New Orleans
Some say numbers are for losers but here are some you can’t afford to overlook. The Panthers are playing hard without Christian McCafferty, going 3-1 ATS without him. Teddy Bridgewater, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore make an underrated combo in the NFL. They get to attack a suspect New Orleans secondary. Saints totally lucked out against the Chargers last time out. First ballot HOFer Drew Brees looks his age.
Here are the numbers:
Carolina 4-1 ATS the last 5, 15-5 the last 20.
New Orleans 2-6 the last 8 at home.
Underdog 10-2 ATS the last 12 in this series.
Teddy Bridgewater 30-9 ATS all-time as a starter, highest of any QB the last 20 years.
I’ll take Carolina with over a touchdown.
Mono: Steelers +1 over Titans
This is an early game of the year candidate in the NFL. It’s a shame that it’s at Steelers +1 after the Steelers beat down of Cleveland last week. Once again they showed that their defense is one of the best in the NFL. Tennessee has had two great weeks since coming back from COVID issues. They blew out the Bills and then came from behind to take down the Texans. Houston did show that the Tennessee defense is vulnerable scoring 36 points and almost beating them. Now the Steelers defense is a different monster. I can’t see Tennessee keeping up with the Steelers offense. Steelers win 38-27
Brutal: Minnesota +3 over Michigan
Openers for both teams. I have no faith in Jim Harbaugh on the road giving points against a good team. I think this is on reputation alone. PJ Fleck is the better coach and getting points at home. The Gophers have a solid quarterback and in my eyes a much better offense coming back. Michigan defense was hurt when one of their better CB’s opted out on the season. Michigan new QB Joe Milton will struggle in his first start under the big lights of a prime time game.
Bob Gaughan: Double Down Carolina +7.5 over New Orleans
Our Man In Stripes makes several great points just above. I will only add that Teddy Bridgewater knows this team very well. Remember last year he was 5-0 as a starter for the Saints. Matt Ruhle is a great coach and has done as good of a job as you could expect in his first year at the helm. This is a division rivalry and in my eyes too many points to give up.