2020 record 41-43-3
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Mr. Over/Under: Bills/Colts Over 51
There were more games in the NFL with over/under odds of 50 or more this year, than ever before. Yet only 124 games went over while 122 went under. The Raiders had the most games over with 13 while the Bills were second with 12. The Giants were the worst with only 4 games over. As for point spreads, Baltimore & Buffalo had the best records at 11-5 while Philadelphia an embarrassing 4-12. Dallas was 5-11.
You may recall there were only 4-games in the Wild-Card round last year and three of the visiting teams, Tennessee, Minnesota and Seattle won. Buffalo was the only visiting team that lost and didn’t cover. In fact, the Bills haven’t won a playoff game since December 30, 1995. However if the NFL hadn’t changed the playoff structure this year, the number 2 seed in each conference, Buffalo & New Orleans, would have a bye this weekend.
In the last three weeks, the Buffalo Bills have scored more points (142) than any other team. Tampa Bay is next with 122 points. The Bills are 12-4 with the over/under this year, while Indy is 9-7. The Colts have averaged 29 points in the their last 5-games. The Bills have averaged 40 points in the last 5-games. I don’t see the weather being a problem for this game, so scoring shouldn’t be a problem either. Take the over.
Man in Stripes: Bills -6.5 over Colts
The first home playoff game in a quarter of a century in Orchard Park bringing a familiar face to town. Frank Reich brings his 11-5 Colts to town. RB, Jonathan Taylor had a huge game with 253 yards last week vs the Jags. The way the Colts could win this game is to play keep away from the Bills offense. I think the Bills defense will stack the box and force Phillip Rivers to beat them. I love Rivers but he’s a sitting target back there. Colts get some points but the Bills offense is on fire. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, now add John Brown and Isiah McKenzie to the mix. The Colts are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. Josh Allen should light them up. I love giving less than a TD. Bills win 38-20 in a game that won’t be that close.
A bonus teaser: Rams +10 and Washington +12.
Mono: Ravens -3.5 over Titans
Huge revenge spot for the Ravens as they were bounced last year by the Titans and then lost this year to them in overtime. Tennessee’s lack of defense finally comes back to bite them in this one. Baltimore has a huge advantage on the defensive side. On offense Lamar and the running game have been on fire as of late. I expect the Ravens to come up with some key stops and the Titans will not be able to stop the Ravens offense.
Brutal: Titans-Ravens over 54.5
Lamar Jackson still hasn’t won a playoff game. Jackson needs to come out and perform this week. I don’t know if he wins but I think he plays well. Tennessee offense can score on anyone. The Titans with Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Corey Davis have legit studs on the offensive side. The Ravens have been explosive recently scoring 30+ in four of their last five games. I love the way JK Dobbins has been running towards the end of the season. He has taken over as the top back in Baltimore. The weather should be fine in Tennessee this week.
Bob Gaughan: Buffalo -6.5 over Indianapolis- Double Down
This is a bad match-up for the Colts. The Colts defense has two very good defensive tackles that can shut down any teams running game. The problem for the Colts is I can see the Bills not trying to run at all. In the first 40 plays it wouldn’t surprise me that the Bills throw 35 passes. The Colts can’t get into a shoot-out with Buffalo. Phillip Rivers can’t move. It’s made worse because of a toe injury. The Steelers blitzed him in the second half and it stalled the Colts offense. I can see the Bills being very aggressive against the Colts. The Bills have won the last three by 25 or more. The last team to do that was the ‘96 Packers. Bills are on a roll and playing their best football right now.