by Bob Gaughan, Buffalo Sports Page
Last Week 5-0 Yearly Record 59-39-2
Last Year Weekly Record 12-6-3, Overall Record 72-50-3
Mr. Over/Under: First Score FG or Safety +160
This looks like it could be a very exciting Super Bowl. You have to be impressed by San Fran’s defense and KC’s offense. If I’ve noticed one thing about Super Bowls, it’s that which ever team gets the ball first, has a tendency to play cautiously. They don’t want to turn the ball over, and the closer they get to the end zone, the more conservative the play calling. This is why every year I place a prop bet that the first score of the game will be a field goal or safety. It’s usually a combined bet and at South Point Casino in Las Vegas, it’s a +160 bet. Both teams are capable of scoring many touchdowns, but early points can be rewarding, and getting $160 on a $100 bet is great odds. Good Luck and thanks for checking out my picks this year.
Man in Stripes: Mahomes rushing yards OVER Carey Price saves (-120)
You have to do your homework to find these Super Bowl props.. Carey Price has averaged 29 saves per game this year, on Sunday they play the defensive minded Columbus Blue Jackets at home, where Price and the Habs have struggled this year.. The Jackets should play it close to the best, and I would be shocked if they even get to 30 shots on goal.. And I will take Mahomes OVER THAT ALL DAY LONG.. He has had 53 yards rushing in each of his 2 playoff games, I need 1, maybe 2 big runs from him all game, and I am home free!!! Yes, the Niners will be hard to run on , but Patty Mahomes has been at a level not seen at QB , maybe ever.. The Chiefs will spread it out, with 4 WRs , and give Mahomes even more space to run.. The over under for Mahomes is 38.5 at even money, nowhere near the saves I see Price having to make against the scoring deprived Blue Jackets.. And at -120, you are not giving much juice..
As for the game, if these teams played 10 times, the Niners win 7.. Better 53 man roster.. But it’s a best of 1.. The Chiefs can put up points in bunches.. Mahomes, Hill , Kelce, and Co., will get theirs, and stop the Niners JUST enough, Jimmy G will throw a pick late, and Andy Reid gets his Super Bowl ring, in a classic.. 34-30 KC.. Enjoy the game!!!!!!
Mono: Butler minus the points over Providence
Providence takes a trip to Butler. Butler has been carried the past few games by phenomenal second half performances by guard Kamar Baldwin. He has taken over the scoring duties since starting guard Aaron Thompson has gone down. Thompson is expected back in this one and it’s a tune up for a showdown with Villanova next week. Providence has dropped their last three games all against ranked Big East teams. Their game last week against Villanova was close, but they had home court advantage in that one. Considering this one is in Bulter and I expect Thompson back, I expect Butler to cruise. Providence has had a hard time shooting the ball from behind the arc and on offense as a whole. The line should be between 5-8.
Bonus picks: Tails never fails in the coin toss for the Super Bowl. Gatorade color for the winning team go with cool blue.
Brutal: Kansas City -1.5 over San Francisco
Unlike the Rams last year the Chiefs are peaking at the right time. The weather should be fine in Miami. This chiefs offense is the fastest offense I’ve seen. It’s not just Mahomes. He has so many weapons. I can’t see San Francisco’s offense keeping up with KC. I think the Chiefs offensive line will do a good job in holding the Niners defensive line in check. The Niners won’t be able to play the 1980’s Giants, Redskins, Cowboys offense and win this game.
Bob Gaughan: Tyreek Hill Under 5 Receptions
I think that the Niners will put Richard Sherman more times than not on Hill. That should limit some of his receptions. Hill catches many passes down the field and with the Niners pass rush that should limit those types of passes as well. I expect the shorter passing game to work for the Chiefs. To me that means more passes for Kelce and the running backs. I’ll take this as a good bet that Hill doesn’t get six receptions.