TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-FALCONS
- Tony Fiorello
- 5 days ago
- 18 min read
by Tony Fiorello
Welcome to Week Six of the 2025 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ sixth game of 2025 will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia as they face the Atlanta Falcons. Here’s what you should know:
ATLANTA TRYING TO RECREATE THE PAST OFFENSIVELY
Some of the Atlanta Falcons’ best offensive seasons have come under the schematics of the Shanahan version of the West Coast offense. After reaching Super Bowl LI in 2016 with then-head coach Dan Quinn and play-caller Kyle Shanahan calling the shots, they returned to them with inconsistent results under former sideline boss Arthur Smith (who learned under another Shanahan disciple, Matt LaFleur, in Tennessee).
That approach is continuing with second-year head honcho Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zack Robinson. Robinson’s approach is inspired from working in Los Angeles for Rams coach Sean McVay, who spent his days as an assistant coach working with Mike and Kyle Shanahan in Washington (along with stints with Jon and Jay Gruden).
Like his former colleagues, Robinson is using a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. It can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field.
Leading this team offensively is second-year signal caller Michael Penix. Penix, a first-round draft pick out of the University of Washington in 2024, is a pocket quarterback with good arm strength, accuracy and poise. However, he’s been more comfortable throwing outside the numbers rather than over the middle and hasn’t been quite as effective when asked to do so. This is likely due to him still getting used to the hashmarks in the NFL being in the middle of the field rather than the larger ones in college football (which lead to bigger plays on the outside).
Penix has some good weapons to work with and his best is running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson is one of the NFL’s best all-around backs, boasting size, quickness, speed, vision and one-cut downhill ability – making him a perfect fit in the Shanahan/McVay scheme. He’s also a good receiver, and he and powerful backup Tyler Allgeier make up a classic thunder-and-lightning combination.
The two work behind a solid, athletic offensive line. Veterans Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom are this unit’s best players while Ryan Neuzil and Elijah Wilkinson are the other two starters.
The Falcons love utilizing shotgun and pistol formations (in fact, no NFL team has used them more this year than Atlanta) along with “11” personnel (one back, one tight end, three wide receivers) and sets with multiple tight ends. Their best wideout is Drake London, a big, physical pass-catcher with good hands who does his best damage out of the slot and can find voids in zone coverage. Darnell Mooney (out for Monday) is a vertical threat and talented tight end Kyle Pitts, who can align anywhere in the formation, has been a disappointment beyond his stellar rookie season in 2021. However, he’s in a contract year so his production has gone up a bit.
Atlanta comes into this game seventh in total yards, sixth in rushing and 13th in passing but just 27th in scoring. They also use motion on 53 percent of their snaps, the second-highest rate in pro football.
FALCONS’ DEFENSE YOUNG AND TALENTED
Morris and defensive play-caller Jeff Ulbrich (the former coordinator with the New York Jets) worked together with the Falcons from 2015-20 and both are well-versed on this side of the ball. While at their core Atlanta is a 3-4 defense, Morris and Ulbrich have concocted a scheme that presents many different fronts at the line of scrimmage (with 82 percent of it being in nickel, the second-highest rate in the NFL) that attacks pass protections well with a multitude of blitzes – they bring pressure on 43.5 percent of opponent drop-backs according to NFL Pro data, the highest in pro football – and lots of man coverage, especially Cover One.
Morris and Ulbrich have lots of youthful athletes to carry out these tactics. At inside linebacker is the underrated duo of Kaden Elliss and Divine Deablo – Elliss is athletic, an elite blitzer and great at avoiding blocks. The defensive line is made up of ex-Buffalo Bill Leonard Floyd, Brandon Dorius, David Onyemata, Arnold Ebiketie and a pair of rookies in first round draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce. While both are speed rushers who can bend the edge, Walker can drop into coverage and is a better run defender than Pearce and can kick inside to play defensive tackle in passing situations.
The Falcons’ secondary is composed of one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell, two-time All-Pro Jessie Bates and versatile rookie Xavier Watts. But the outside corner position opposite Terrell is a question mark. It’s currently held down by a solid pro in veteran Mike Hughes, but Dee Alford (who’s a better fit in the slot) has challenged him for playing time. Their nickel is rookie Billy Bowman.
Atlanta is just 15th in points allowed and 16th versus the run, but they’re first in the league against the pass and in total yards given up. They’ve also surrendered just 14 explosive plays in 2025, the NFL’s second-best mark.
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY GOOD, BUT UNDERGOING A MAKEOVER IN 2024 AND ‘25
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense was one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with 2023’s sack total being the best of the McDermott era.
2024, however, was a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door were longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers) and Shaq Lawson.
Especially when one includes names from the past on the defensive line such as Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson, Carlos “Boogie” Basham, Trent Murphy, Vernon Butler, Justin Zimmer, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, Austin Johnson and Casey Toohill, that’s a lot of turnover during the last eight years. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth (Buffalo made it to the AFC title game last year with the third-most dead money on the salary cap in the NFL and used just 71 percent of the cap).
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fifth and sixth professional seasons, respectively – who have been asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.
They are backed up by a familiar face in Jordan Phillips (who is on the practice squad) and second-year men Javon Solomon and DeWayne Carter (Carter is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon) while rookies Deone Walker, T.J. Sanders (currently injured) and Landon Jackson learn the ropes of the NFL. Ex-Charger Joey Bosa, a five-time Pro Bowler and 10-year pro, will likely get between 10-15 snaps a game in obvious pass rush situations and fill the role that future Hall of Famer Von Miller settled into after a torn ACL 11 games into his first season compromised his play on the field. Additionally, veterans Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht will provide valuable depth after they return from six-game suspensions (Hoecht is an intelligent and versatile athlete who McDermott and Babich can deploy in multiple ways).
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and stopping the run. The run issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL for years), a lack of gap integrity, subpar eye discipline, inefficient communication and an inability to handle motion (which causes issues with leverage, spacing and run fits). Perhaps the infusion of new faces this season can eventually put those issues to bed once and for all, but they’ve reared their ugly heads yet again in 2025.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more single-high man coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens last year so they could put more bodies in the box to stop the run and to limit communication) but before the snap it is complex. Safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. In 2024’s regular season they were 27th in blitz rate but Buffalo blitzed Lamar Jackson on 15 out of 31 drop-backs (48.4%) in the playoffs, their fifth-highest blitz rate in a game under McDermott and their highest in a game since Week 15 of 2021, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He and Milano are also adept at being used to spy quarterbacks – they spied Jackson on every third down in last year’s postseason.
For the third straight year, Milano has suffered a major injury – this time a pectoral problem. When he misses time, backup Dorian Williams usually picks up the slack. Williams displays flashes of quickness and burst but is sometimes slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also takes many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid and has improved with more experience game by game. He had increased playing time in the playoffs to stop Baltimore’s running game, as evidenced by being on the field for a third of Buffalo’s snaps.
Additional depth comes from former Carolina Panther Shaq Thompson and Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that he played in a similar role as Milano while in college. Thompson, meanwhile, has turned back the clock with some strong performances.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020 (although their percentage of base personnel has gone up so far this year). When Milano is out with injury, they’ve also increased their usage of dime personnel with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage and in the past, that setup featured Poyer near the line of scrimmage, Micah Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end.
The Bills’ safety position is now manned by Rapp, who is better playing near the line of scrimmage, the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin (out for Monday) and Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Poyer, who re-signed with the team following a one-year stint in Miami, is on the practice squad providing veteran depth.
At the boundary cornerback spots are White (also back after a year away to replace Rasul Douglas) and Christian Benford and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram, Dane Jackson (another experienced face back on the practice squad) and speedy rookies Max Hairston, Dorian Strong and Jordan Hancock (Hairston is currently out with a sprained knee). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains strong in in the quickness and tackling departments and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis, who can also fill in at safety.
2024 saw the Bills end the regular season 11th in points allowed, 12th against the run, 17th in total yards, tied for 18th in sacks and 24th versus the pass. They were also 29th in third down percentage, gave up the most completions, yards and touchdowns in the NFL on screen plays and allowed nine touchdowns on plays of four seconds or longer – the most in the league according to Cover 1’s Eric Turner. However, they were third in takeaways and were fifth-best in allowing plays of 20 yards or more.
Yet the team’s start to the 2025 season has been quite uneven. Although they’re ninth in total yards allowed and sacks and second versus the pass, they’re just 17th in points given up and fifth-last versus the run. Needless to say, Buffalo certainly has their work cut out for them on this side of the ball.
BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE STILL PRODUCTIVE
For five consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills both pre and post-snap, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, those factors allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was ninth in passer rating and rushing touchdowns and tied for seventh in passing scores).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills went through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo was how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and ‘23, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that created favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and they would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme get them open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel with the New York Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense last year was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs (now in New England), while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans like John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Amari Cooper walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of Keon Coleman from Florida State last year fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position Coleman is accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs and free agent pickups Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore. Shifty pass-catcher Khalil Shakir mans the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage, Gabriel Davis has returned to the practice squad to supply depth and Tyrell Shavers could prove to be a new weapon after making the team’s active roster out of training camp.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by third-year man Dalton Kincaid and their diverse skillsets have allowed the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions as a rookie, the most of any first-year Bill and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, sweeps, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who boasts great vision, patience and burst, is backed up by physical second-year man Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson brings solid receiving skills to the table.
The starting front five used to be iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection but has become a strength in recent years. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. In 2023 Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team again led the league with just 14 sacks allowed last year (tied for the sixth-least since 2000).
Buffalo also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, the sixth guy is currently Alec Anderson and the Bills had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and were near the top of the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen on the field (rookie tight end Jackson Hawes, an excellent blocker and the replacement for Quintin Morris, is being used more in this regard with “13” personnel looks which diversifies what they can throw at opponents).
Another area the Bills needed to clean up was protecting the ball. They used to be one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and he led the NFL with 18 interceptions in ’23. Last year Allen cut down on his interception total significantly with just six – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
In fact, the Bills tied the league record for fewest turnovers in a season with just eight (with the 2019 Saints). They also became the first team ever with less than 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 turnovers in the same season.
Buffalo ended the 2024 regular season second in points scored (the highest scoring team in franchise history) and red zone efficiency, 10th in total yards and ninth in rushing and passing and became the first team to ever have 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in one season. They, along with the Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, were also the top four teams in the NFL on fourth down conversion rate – so far they’re second in the NFL in rushing and explosive plays, third in points scored and total yards gained and seventh in passing and third down efficiency.
Ex-49er Mitch Wishnowsky is the team’s third punter this year and kicker Tyler Bass has missed time due to a groin injury – meaning 41-year-old former All-Pro Matt Prater has replaced him. Prater, who holds the NFL record for most 50-plus yards field goals in a career, also owned the league mark for longest career field goal after he connected on a 64-yarder in 2013.
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· Last year Buffalo tied the franchise record for wins in a season with 13 and are 17-5 all-time at home in postseason play. They won seven games by 20-plus points (a franchise record) and they went undefeated at home for the first time since ’90.
· Buffalo faced eight-man boxes 32 percent of the time in 2024, the most in the NFL according to Cover 1’s Erik Turner. It’s a stark contrast to the prior four years in which they went against them 16 percent of the time in 2020 (32nd), 18.6 in ’21 (27th), 20.4 in ’22 (20th) and 19.9 in ’23 (19th).
· Allen had 40 combined scores for the fifth straight year in 2024 – no other quarterback has done it more than three times (Drew Brees from 2011-13) – allowing him to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player by the Associated Press, an honor previously bestowed upon just two other Bills (Thurman Thomas in 1991 and O.J. Simpson in ‘73).
· Buffalo’s quarterback is also a threat to become the first signal caller to ever rush for six scores or more in each of his first eight years in the NFL. The only other players to do so are Hall of Fame running backs Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk and LaDanian Tomlinson.
· Allen has tied the league record (currently held by Cam Newton with 45) for most career games with a passing and rushing touchdown.
· Buffalo has forced a turnover in 16 straight home games – their longest streak since a 31-game outing from 1988-92.
· So far through five games, according to Sumerbrain the Bills have had a rushing play on 81.58 percent of their under-center formations versus 18.42 percent pass. Conversely, when in shotgun they’ve thrown the ball 78.31 percent of the time versus 21.69 percent rushing. One would think those are tendencies that Joe Brady would like to change up soon.
· Similarly, Buffalo has returned to their old identity of “11” personnel with it being utilized on 61 percent of their offensive snaps.
· Heading into Week Six the Bills are 11-4 since 2017 when playing indoors. Their point-per-game average in such games (27.5) is fourth in the NFL among teams who have outdoor home stadiums.
· According to Next Gen Stats, Buffalo’s offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate (22.3 percent) and the longest time to pressure (2.92 seconds) through five weeks.
· Last week the Bills had a season-high 11 penalties in their first regular season loss at Highmark Stadium since November 2023 (a defeat on Monday Night Football to the Denver Broncos).
· Buffalo is 15-5 in primetime since 2022 but they’re just 5-5 on Monday nights when Allen has been under center since he became their starter in 2018.