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  • Bob Gaughan

Stone Cold Locks

Updated: Sep 29, 2023

By Bob Gaughan

2022 Record 66-38-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 314-230-11=57%

Mr. Over/Under: First Score will be a Field Goal or Safety

This year’s Super Bowl reminds me of Super Bowl 25. The Bills went into that game having led the NFL in points, while the Giants allowed the least amount of points. The Giants squeezed by San Francisco in the Championship game by 2-points, while the Bills embarrassed the Raiders by 48-points. The Bills were favored by 7 and lost by 1. Probably the best Super Bowl ever. This year the Chiefs led the NFL in points but only won the championship game by 3-points. The Eagles scored 55 more points than their opponents in the playoffs. Like the Bills & Giants in 1991, one team has dominated in the playoffs while the other team squeezed by.  If you’ve followed me over the years, you know I always bet the first score in the Super Bowl will be a field goal or safety, which usually is a combined single bet. My theory is, as the team gets closer to the end zone for their first score, they play more conservative and will be happy to just get points. Thanks for checking in this year.

Man in Stripes: Philly first half money line -120

A very close game is predicted here and this might be the closest line in Super Bowl history. This has been one of the best bets all year. 15-4 ATS in the first half are the Eagles. The Eagles offense has been phenomenal this year on first drives. I look for the Eagles to continue the trend against a banged up Chiefs team. Too many weapons for the Eagles and you have an advantage on both lines. I do see a tight finish Eagles 31-27.

Also like: Mahomes over 38.5 attempts

Opening kickoff to be returned

2-point conversion attempt Yes

Mano: Chris Jones Under .5 sacks

Jones is a monster that recorded his first playoff sack in the AFC Championship game against Cincinnati. In fact he had two against Burrow. He finally broke the string of 14-playoff game without a sack. The streak starts again on Sunday. The Eagles offensive line is the best in the NFL and even if you get through it’s not easy to contain or bring down Jalen Hurts. Jones may generate pressure but I don’t see him bringing Hurts to the ground. This is contrary to how I would lean on the side. Can’t go against Reid and the Chiefs.

Brutal: Philadelphia -1.5 over Kansas City

I think that Philadelphia will dominate both lines of scrimmage.  Philadelphia has the best offensive line in football.  As a result the Eagles should be able to run the football and take the pressure off of Jalen Hurts. The Chiefs are injured at receiver and that’s a problem because I feel they will be one dimensional on offense.  The Eagles are great against the run so I don’t KC will be able to move on the ground. The bottom line is the Eagles overall have more talent and should come out on top.

Bob:  Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions

I respect the Philly pass rush so I believe that Mahomes will have to get the ball out quickly.  This will mean more passes to Kelce.  Kelce is the only person that Mahomes has to throw to. I don’t believe he will have the time nor does he have much to throw to at receiver. As a result Kelce has to be a major part of the game plan right from the start. I agree above with Brutal that the Chiefs will struggle to run against this stout Eagles defense. This means Mahomes will need to throw to move the ball all day.

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