Stone Cold Locks By Bob Gaughan's Panel
Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2023 Record 31-32-1
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Mr. Over/Under: Tease: Detroit _6.5 over Chicago (-140)
Why hasn’t the media asked Josh Allen if he feels responsible for the firing of Ken Dorsey? After all, Dorsey doesn’t lead the lead the league in interceptions. Every year in Buffalo, Allen has said in press conferences, “I need to do better”. Really? Rookie C.J. Stroud lead his team to 30-points and a win in Cincinnati, while Allen lead his team to 18-points and a loss. It’s time for Bill’s fans to stop treating Allen like the darling the press has made him out to be. Speaking of darlings, after being traded away by the Rams, Jared Goff has lead the Lions to the top of the NFC North. This week they’re back home against division rival Chicago. The Bears have the 26th ranked pass defense and is 27th in points allowed. With the Vikings on their tail, the Lions need to keep winning. If you’ve followed my picks, you know I hate a -7.5 spread, so just like I did a couple weeks ago, I’ll tease a point, bring the spread down to -6.5 and take the Lions at home, even though they should cover -7.5.
Man in Stripes: Jets-Bills Under 40.5
No over thinking here, this was my lock as I was walking out of Highmark stadium late Monday Night. The Bills/Josh Allen are broken, too many turnovers and mistakes on offense. Elevating Joe Brady with the firing of Ken Dorsey on a short week against the number 1 defense in football. This won’t help much. Bills are playing tight at home and it will be ugly again. On the other side of the field we have Zach Wilson. Need I say more!!!!! Allen has 9 TD’s and 19 INT’s in his 10 career games vs the Jets. Bills are 7-3 and the Jets are 6-3 to the under. Take the over in punts and the under in points!!!!
Bonus: Jets +7- Bills 0-6 ATS last 6.
Bills team total under 23.5
Steelers +1.5- Tomlin four leaf clover year continues with Watson out
Mono: Mississippi State -14 over Southern Miss
State in the midst of a down year following the death of Mike Leach. Zach Arnett took over and completely changed the identity of the team. One of the reasons Arnett was fired. Getting him out of the building and having offensive analyst Greg Knox take over and let Will Rodgers air it out. Southern Miss is a fun team this year having sneaked out a few upset wins including recently @ Louisiana. Frank Gore Jr adds a fun element but otherwise this team is awful. This line is short because the Bulldogs don’t look like a team that can beat anyone by double digits. Will Rogers is too good not to throw the ball 30+ times a game and that has hindered this team this year. An embarrassing 51-10 loss to A&M and the team hit rock bottom. Rogers is back, State sets up an “Egg Bowl” with the Rebels next week with a win for Bowl eligibility. Bulldogs win in a rout 42-14.
Brutal: The 110th Grey Cup: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-7.5) vs. MONTREAL ALOUETTES @ Hamilton, Ontario
This is Winnipeg's fourth straight appearance in the Championship game. They won in 2019, Covid 19 cancelled the 2020 event (Only World War One has otherwise postponed the final), the Bombers won again in 2021, but lost a bitter 24-23 contest to the heavy underdog Toronto Argonauts last year. This season they have focused on peaking at the right time. They knocked off the upstart British Columbia Lions to reach the final and were all ready to face the Argos.
Then the double-digit favorite Argos imploded against Montreal losing at home 38-17 in front of a record crowd, thus denying the expected revenge rematch. Toronto QB Chad Kelly inexplicably had his worst outing in pro football and morphed into Johnny Manziel. He looked totally lost; throwing interceptions, pick sixes and carrying a static facial expression that looked as if he was suffering from a walking concussion. That won't happen with 35-year old QB Zach Collaros (University of Cincinnati) who has the experience to not undergo an emotional breakdown in the big game. Winnipeg RB Brady Oliveira (a hybrid of Derrick Henry/Ray Rice) is a punishing weapon who should wear down the Alouette defense, control the clock and dictate field position late in the game. Montreal QB Cody Fajardo (University of Nevada-Reno where he directly followed Colin Kaepernick) has had a nice run this year in his new home, but beating the mediocre, toothless Hamilton Tiger Cats and the fragile psyche Toronto Argonauts will not compare to overcoming this final obstacle.
Weather does not appear to be a major concern on Sunday. Head to head this year, Winnipeg easily beat Montreal 17-3 and 47-17. The Blue Bombers have the edge in experience, motivation, quarterback, running game and overall defense. Cinderella flops at the ball and the Blue Bombers win their thirteenth Grey Cup going away covering this growing spread.
Bonus Picks: Iowa State (+7.5) vs. #7 TEXAS
New Mexico State (+25.5) @ AUBURN
Philly: Oregon State -1 over Washington
With wins in recent weeks over USC and Utah, as well as one possession wins over Arizona, Oregon and Arizona State, Washington remains undefeated and alive for the college football playoff. Michael Penix Jr has been spectacular and with the help of one of the best receiver rooms has become a Heisman favorite. The UW defense hasn’t been great of late and particularly against the run. Guess who has one of the best offensive lines in the country. Yes, Oregon State!!! The Beavers are #2 in the country in rush success rate. I expect this to be a huge advantage. They also have one of the best safety duos, which should cut down on the explosive plays by the Huskies. Give me the home team to knock off the undefeated Huskies and cause a little shake up in the college football playoff. We know the NCAA loves drama.
Bob: Missouri -11 over Florida
I think the average bettor looks at this line and will jump all over Florida. That’s exactly what Vegas wants you to do. Missouri is for real. Their only two losses were to LSU and Georgia. They played both of these powerhouses tough. Last week against Tennessee the Tigers outgained the Vols by 180 yards. This team is legit. Brady Cook is a solid QB and WR Luther Burden III will be a high draft pick. These two teams have played six common opponents. In those six games Missouri has an average of +90 yards in those games. Florida is -50 yards per game against those same six teams. Florida is 1-3 on the road this year as well.