Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 60-41-1
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 456-344-15=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: 7-point TEASER: PHILLY game OVER 40.5, KC game Over 40.5
Although I expected Detroit to be here, It seems turnovers have played a large part in the NFL playoffs this season. Just ask Detroit, Baltimore & the Chargers. Buffalo didn’t win their game last week, Baltimore lost it, due to turnovers. So, let’s break down both games, and see who has the most turnovers this week.
Since their bye, in week 5, Philly has won 14 of 15, losing that one game to the Commanders, when Philly lost their QB for most of that game. The Commanders have won 7 straight, 4 of them on the road, averaging 31.3 points in those games. However, Washington was third worst in the league this season when it came to rushing defense. Last week Saquon Barkley ran for over 200-yards against the Rams, while the Commanders allowed over 200-riushing yards in Detroit. Both teams are 11-6 ATS
The Bills have never beat the Chiefs in their three playoff matches, but did beat them at home this year, 30-21. The Bills have only turned the ball over 8-times this year, while KC hasn’t turned the ball over since they played the Bills in week 11. The Bill’s only lost 4-games this year, but they were all on the road, when their defense did not play as well as it has at home. Allen is the more physical QB. Mahomes is the smarter QB. Bill’s fans seem to despise Mahomes, yet the only reason he’s in Kansas City is because your team traded their 10th pick in the first round of the 2017 draft to the Chiefs, and KC was smart enough to pick Mahomes. So why dislike the QB, that your organization gave away? This game could come down to a single crucial mistake. So, ask yourself, which QB is likely to make that mistake?
We won our 2-team teaser parley last week, so I’m giving it another shot. The O/U for both games is 47.5. As of today (Thursday) it appears the weather for both games will be somewhat cold, but not a problem. Since you’ve got to score to win, I’m taking the over on a 7-point teaser for both games. Parley Philly over 40.5 with KC over 40.5. Score baby score.
Man in Stripes: Bills +8.5/ over 41.5, 6 point teaser..
Championship weekend is here. Should be two great games. Lets focus on the biggest game in the 716 in 3 decades. Bills / Chiefs games are usually close and higher scoring. Bills have lost 2 games the last 3 years by more than 8. Every Allen/ Mahomes game has gone over this number. Maybe blindly we go this way. Weather will be fine, Bills have score scored 30 or more in 8 of last 10, throw away week 18 vs. Pats. All we need is each team to get to 20. No overthinking. I was 1/2 point from going 4-4 in my divisional teasers last week. And the Lions meltdown hurt a few of us last week. Both teams relatively healthy, Taylor Rapp, and Matt Milano questionable, Mecole Hartman is out for the Chiefs.
Now for the picks:
Bills got thru the Divisional wall last week, and now there's unfinished biz at Arrowhead. There's something about this team, this QB, and yes, this head coach. As the late great Pat Summerall said when Matt Bahr hit the walk off FG at Candlestick to beat the Niners, THERE WILL BE NO THREE PEAT. The 716 is up for grabs. Bills 27-23
Commanders, Daniels just fall short. Too much Barkley, and 4th straight road game catches up to Dan Quinn and Co. Eagles 23-19.
Enjoy the games!!
Mono: Bills-Chiefs Under 48.5
Points have been at a premium this post season and I don’t expect championship weekend to be any different. I’m going under 48.5 in the bills-chiefs game. KC has done it a different way this year, winning games behind a top 5 defense and scoring just enough. In this matchup during the regular season, these 2 combined for 51, Buffalo scoring the most on the chiefs all year. This game has a narrative to it, Josh is on his revenge tour. I expect a defensive battle, not like the previous playoff matchups between these 2. KC welcomes back Jaylen Watson with McDuffie on the other side. Buffalo's defense will key on Kelce and make the others beat em. In a battle for a trip to the Super Bowl, first team to 24 wins. Bills take it, 24-17 and we’re back to the Super Bowl baby. Take the under 48.5
Brutal: Buffalo +2 over Kansas City
Like many, I am sick and tired of the Kansas City Chiefs! They are not even fun to watch this year. They have won one too many games with fourth quarter luck this year for me to accept that they are not due for a comeuppance this week. Through guile, luck, experience and some very poor officiating they have won over three quarters of their games this year by a single score. The Karmic Klincher for me was last week when I had to watch QB Patrick Mahomes pull an advanced class in Kenny Pickett late & fake sliding to draw a big penalty against Houston and barely beat the Texans. The worst play was not even called for a penalty in the game. Mahomes appeared to be running out of bounds, but suddenly stopped at the sideline, causing the Houston linebacker to collide with him in the back. Then, Mahomes launched himself like he was shot out of a tee shirt cannon, while pointing at his foot, indicating his toe was out of bounds and therefore it was a late hit. A gutsy and creative referee would have thrown a flag on Mahomes for unsportsmanlike conduct or for just generally being a prima donna, diva a$$%ole.
What garbage! This is Claude Lemieux, Matthew Barnaby, Bill Barber level bad sports acting! Patrick the Killdeer Mahomes sullies the integrity of the game and his own legacy with this rubbish. Bias in the playoffs, the stats indicate the Chiefs have had a 9-1 advantage in personal fouls. It ends here!
The Bills have Milano back, they can frustrate Mahomes enough, they can find some scheme to occasionally slow-up Kelce. Josh Allen is going to have his best game as a pro and all the trends, streaks and bad luck ends here with a decisive Buffalo win.
Bob: Jayden Daniels over 222.5 passing yards
I think the only chance Washington has is for Daniels to pass them to victory. The Eagles have the best lines in the league. That’s why offensively they are so dangerous with Barkley running behind. Defensively they are tough
to run against. In the two games earlier this year Brian Robinson ran for an average of only 43 yards per game. This means the game is going to be on the arms and legs of Jayden Daniels. This is a low total in my eyes. Daniels has gone over this number in each of his last five games. He’s gotten better as the year has gone on and is now a cinch for the rookie of the year. I checked the weather in Philly and unlike last week it should be fine. I think Washington has a chance in this one considering Philly has been outgained in both of their playoff games this year.
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