Stone Cold Locks- Divisional Picks

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 67-66-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 381-298-14=56%

Mr. Over/Under: Teaser: Detroit +.5/ Baltimore -2.5

So now the RUST vs. REST week begins. If you get to rest for 2 or 3-weeks, will you be a little rusty? In the case of San Fran and Baltimore, I don’t think so. Last year the two #1 seeds did well in their first playoff game. KC beat Jacksonville, 27-20 and Philly beat the Giants 38-7. Both games also went under. In fact all four divisional games went under last year. I see two games this week, in which there is a much better team, that being Baltimore and Detroit. According to Covers.com, Detroit, at home, has averaged 10 points more per game than their opponent.  Baltimore is the third highest scoring team behind Dallas and San Fran, and their defense only allowed 26 TDs this year, while Houston allowed 37. Last year, 3 out of the 4 home teams won their divisional game. Buffalo lost to Cincy. So, once again I’m going with a 7-point teaser parley, even though I feel Detroit will cover the spread and Baltimore should. Take Detroit +.5 with Baltimore -2.5, and enjoy the games. 

Man in Stripes: Teaser: KC +8.5/Over 39.5

Well, we are undefeated so far on games yours truly has been at, let’s try one for time with one of the biggest games in Bills history Sunday!!!! We all know the history here, and the atmosphere will be off the charts in Orchard Park.  That said, the Bills are decimated on defense. KC offense has struggled, especially in the red zone. But I expect Mahomes, Kelce (and Mrs. Swift) to be able to score some. Josh Allen has been from another world the last few weeks. The Bills offense is healthy, dangerous and they will be able to score. Weather should be fine; it must stop snowing sometime!!!! This game smells like a 3-point game.  Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as a road dog.  This game will come down to one possession, as is the history between these two teams.  So, we will tease above the key numbers of 3,6, and 7 points.  Should be a classic 27-24 Bills!! Enjoy the games!!!

Mono: Green Bay and San Francisco Over 50.5

The 49’ers play host to the upset minded Packers. The Packers torched that sorry ass Cowboys defense last week. Big Whoop. The 9ers are healthy but their Achilles heel is a pass defense ranked in the mid teens. They give up big plays and Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur have seemed to found something. Shanahan and the 9ers are rested and should have no problem putting up points. In a season that saw a lot of unders hit, particularly in prime time, the opposite has been true through the first week of the post season. I don’t see a world where both of these teams aren’t in the mid to high 20’s. Take the over!!

Brutal:  Detroit -6.5 over Tampa Bay 

This is a stat for the ages.  Detroit won their first playoff game since 1992.  They are now trying to win consecutive playoff games for the first time since 1957.  The ghosts of Bobby Layne, Alex Karras and Lem Barney will be urging the team on. Detroit is healthy and I loved to see Sam LaPorta playing last week and he showed no health issues. Tampa Bay doesn’t put up a ton of points.  The home crowd will be raucous. I think the noise will be a big advantage.  I think Detroit will jump out to an early lead and it will be too much for Tampa. I was on Tampa last week but that was against a fading Philadelphia team.  This week they will have trouble keeping up with the Lions offense.

Philly: Texans +9.5 over Baltimore

I continue to tail and fade the Texans. I think Stroud is legit and had some doubts last week against a good Cleveland Browns defense.  But The Texans held strong by constantly confusing Joe Flacco with Coach Ryans defense. Two pick sixes broke the game open. Most of the Ravens starters haven’t played for three weeks. I expect them to have some rust. The Texans have won two elimination games in a row. While I think a win is not out of the question, I am going to take the hot hand to cover the large spread.

Bob: Baker Mayfield over 253 passing yards

I think this game could be close, but I think the better play is going with Baker to go over his passing yards.  Last week Matthew Stafford threw for over 360 yards vs the Lions.  The Lions secondary is the weak spot of this team.  The general view is the Lions defense is middle of the pack, but the advance metrics have this secondary as one of the worst in football.  They are bottom five in terms of their pass defense. Let’s throw in that the Lions player insulted Baker this week.  If you didn’t see it Lions DB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was quoted as saying “If you give the Tampa receivers a good QB that’s a good group.” Adds to a little extra motivation.  This is the only way I see the Bucs moving is through the air. Baker has been better of late, and I see an edge with WR’s like Evans and Godwin.  Look for the emergence of TE Otton too. This seems like a reasonable number to go over with on Sunday. Baker has gone over this total four of the last five weeks.