Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 58-38-1
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 454-341-15=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: TEASER KC -1.5, WASHINGTON +16.5
My Chargers pick last week, was my worst pick of the season. It’s frustrating to spend hours researching and reviewing games, and the QB you pick to win throws 4 interceptions. Remind me never to pick the Chargers again.
Since 2022, home teams have gone 6-2 straight up in the divisional games. Both those loses were by the Buffalo Bills, who are the only home underdog this week. The Houston Texans are 0-5 in divisional games and have never won a road playoff game. Both the Bills and Kansas City are undefeated at home this year. It appears both Sunday games with be cold with a chance of snow. Washington averaged 28.5 points per game this year, while the Lions averaged 33.2. The Commanders were 30th against the run this year while Detroit’s defense is still banged up. You don’t have to be an expert to expect this to be a high scoring game.
There’s always been the question about how the conference leaders will play, having a week off. Will there be any rust or will they have more players who got healthy? That’s why the two Saturday games intrigue me, and why I’m going with a 2-team teaser this week. C. J. Stroud has not played up to his rookie year. Mahomes continues to excel and is at home. Give me the better QB at home.
The Commanders are getting 9.5 against a team with defensive problems, and they have a rookie QB that plays far beyond his years. Detroit should win this, but by how much? These are the only two teams this weekend, that haven’t played each other during the regular season. Washington has attempted more 4th downs than Detroit this season. I expect them to play aggressively. With a 7-point teaser parley, I get KC
-1.5 and Washington + 16.5. Basically, to win this bet, all I need is for KC to win by a little, and Washington to just stay in the game.
Man in Stripes: KC ML/ DET ML/ RAMS +7.5 ( +140)
And we are down to 8 in the NFL.. The Divisional Round is upon us, my favorite weekend. We hit a 3-teamer last week for plus money. IF IT AINT BROKE. We go with 2 rested #1 seeds to win, and a hot, experienced team playing for a cause!!!
Houston at KC- I know the Chiefs have had a four-leaf clover with them much of the year. It seems like they are getting healthy and playing their best football as they try to make a historical run to 3 peat! They beat Texans 27-19 at home in week 16, as a 3.5 fav.. Mahomes, Reid, and Co. look to be ready, they are undefeated at home in divisional round, rested and ready vs a Texan team that was lifted last weeks win vs the Chargers. Herbert 4 picks. Houston in the cold on the road, sorry not happening. Losing Tank Dell has/ will hurt the Houston offense. KC might not cover, but for sure they host the AFC title game....AGAIN!!!!
Wash at Det- Jayden Daniel's has been nothing short of spectacular this year. The Commanders have been the surprise of the NFL this year, and a great road win in Tampa last week. I think it ends on Saturday night at Ford Field. This is a step up in class. Short week for Washington, on the road again too big of a ask for this young, exciting team...The Lions at home, with Jared Goff, and weapons Montgomery, Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown will just be too much. Lions came within 30 minutes of their first Super Bowl last year. Even though their defense is banged up, Dan Campbell at home will get the troops ready, they will host the NFC Championship game next week.
Rams at Eagles-there’s always one " under the radar" team that gets hot at the right time!!. The Rams are that team. Terrible start to season, now 6-1 SU in last 7, the 1 a throw away game in week 18. Big win in Arizona vs the Vikes, (you think Sam Darnold cost himself some $$$!!). Sean McVay is a big game, big time coach, this team is playing for a city, in LA, that has been through so much the last couple of weeks with the horrific wildfires there. We are thinking and praying for you LA!!! Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, throw in a healthy Puka Nacua, and an underrated defense, 9 sacks last week, and you have a recipe for a tight game. Philly is a great team, but pressure at home will be immense. I don't think Hurts is 100%, If Rams can control Barkley, and put some pressure on Hurts, they can win this game. I think McVay rally’s the troops and might pull the upset here, but we will push that number to +7.5 to complete our 3-team parlay.
Bonus pick-Of course, no way we are NOT mentioning the game of the year at Highmark Stadium. Ravens at Bills. I will be there!! And it will be cold!!! Just the way we like it. Jackson vs Allen, 2 MVP seasons, maybe a 3rd vs what possibly the best season from a QB in Bills history. Harbaugh vs McDermott, 1 has a ring, one desperately trying to get to the big dance.. This has been the Bills kryptonite; THEY JUST CAN'T LOSE A THIRD STRAIGHT DIVISIONAL GAME AT HOME!!! NO EXCUSES THEY ARE HEALTHY!! This game might define Sean McDermott’s legacy. Find a way to slow down Henry, I feel the Bills healthy D, the cold, and the 12th man will do the rest!! As long as there are no meltdowns on the sidelines... see 13 seconds, 12 men on the field, 10, heck even 9. And throw in a little Rich Stadium magic. Tucker has struggled here. I have a feeling that might be the key. Bills 30-27. IN AN INSTANT CLASSIC. Maybe a walkoff fg for Bass. Ohio St crushes UND as well in the title game. They are just better than everyone!! Win and cover. Enjoy the games on what should be a great weekend of NFL/ NCAA playoff football.
Mono: BILLS +1.5 over RAVENS
Going with the Bills +1.5. I'm drinking the Kool aid big time and think it’ll be refreshing this time around. Buffalo welcomes a hot Ravens team with a deadly rushing tandem of Lamar and King Henry. Ricard lead blocking and you wonder how they can be stopped. Zay Flowers hasn’t practiced all week, which isn’t a good sign for his availability. If he does suit up, I don’t expect him to be 100%. McDermott and Babich know what happened last time and their game plan has to focus on slowing that down and making Lamar beat them through the air. This Bills offense is rolling both on the ground and through the air, especially on their home turf. This one’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be loud and the Bills will need to force long 3rd downs and get some takeaways. If this game is in Baltimore, I think it’s the Ravens. In their building on Sunday night, Josh and the Bills win a classic. Defend your dirt. Bills win and cover.
Brutal: Washington @ DETROIT (-9.5)
Detroit was always a music city; best known for Motown, Detroit was also essential in the metamorphosis of Rock and Roll. In the late sixties leading into the seventies, Detroit gave us Mitch Ryder and the Detroit Wheels, The Amboy Dukes featuring Ted Nugent, Alice Cooper (via Los Angeles, via Phoenix), Suzi Quatro, The Bob Seger System, Frigid Pink, Iggy Pop and the legendary, totally subversive MC5. The Detroit Lions are definitely more rock & roll than Motown.
Now, we do not normally bet large spreads, but somehow, we are not as impressed with the Washington Commanders and rookie QB Jayden Daniels as the East Coast Press seems to be. Running back David Montgomery will be back for the Lions, so the two headed monster of Montgomery & Gibbs is reunited for this game. Detroit may be the team of destiny this year. They go for the jugular and I see them putting up a lot of points here. Maybe the OVER is the better play here with all the injuries to the Lion defense, but a few bodies have trickled back, Detroit has had a week off and the world class level, jet engine decibels of Ford Field will rattle a greenhorn QB, even one as composed and mature as Daniels. Also, I just cannot see the Commander defense stopping Goff and company.
Motor City roars and leaves the Commanders in the dust.
We will take the team that gave us Wayne Fontes, Lem Barney, Barry Sanders, Alex Karras and Bobby Lane!
DETROIT (-9.5)
Bonus: In the National Championship Game, the Over-Under on the number of times Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard invokes praise for Jesus Christ in the post-game interview is 3.5 if the Fighting Irish win, and 2.5 if they lose to Ohio State.
Bob: LIONS TEAM TOTAL OVER 33.5
With all of the weather potentially a factor around the country I will take a game where we know the conditions will be perfect inside in Detroit. The Lions should be able to move the ball up and down the field on the Commanders average defense. The Lions by all advanced metrics have a top 3 offense in football. Furthermore, with David Montgomery coming back they have a great running game with Gibbs and Montgomery. The Commanders have the 30thranked rushing defense. To go along with the running game Detroit sports two-thousand-yard receivers in St. Brown and Williams and one of the best TE’s in the league in LaPorta. So, the play-action game should succeed in full force. You also have the Dan Campbell factor here in which both coaches are known for being super aggressive. Campbell will be going for it on fourth downs and going for touchdowns rather than field goals. I just can’t see the Commanders defense stopping Detroit all day so in a limited field this week I’ll take the Detroit team total over.

Comments