Stone Cold Locks for Christmas

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 51-48-2

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 365-280-13=56%

Mr. Over/Under: Denver -6 over New England

Looking at the weather for outdoor games this weekend, it appears Mother Nature may only require a light jacket. The only possibility of rain, as of today (Thursday) appears to be the Monday game at KC. That’s good news, as many games have important playoff potential. As of this writing, nine games have a point spread of 3 or less, with four games at 1.5. One of those 3-point spreads is Detroit at Minnesota. Detroit is 5-2 on the road, while the Vikings are 2-4 at home. Go figure? I’m going out on a limb a little bit this week, expecting the Broncos to come back strong, after an embarrassing loss at Detroit. The Broncos host New England. The Patriots have the worst record against the spread this year at 3-11. Denver has a much better QB and is still in the playoff hunt. This is a must win for the Broncos, so I’ll take Denver -6. Merry Christmas to all and to all a winning bet.

Man in Stripes: Teaser: Steelers +8.5/ Colts +7.5

Steelers- +8.5- I know the Steelers are staggering to the finish line.  They have QB issues and for the first time ever, Mike Tomlin is on the hot seat. That being said he’s 16-6-2 as a home dog. Cincinnati is banged up with no Chase or Burrow. AFC North game means low scoring and close. I’ll go with the terrible towels with over a TD.

Colts- +7.5-  Extra day rest for Indy. Gardner Minshew has been solid. The Colts a very well coached team and fighting for the playoffs. The Falcons are coming off a brutal loss to the Panthers. Arthur Smith has one foot out the door as the team looks like a dumpster fire. Tyler Heinecke gets the nod at QB this week. The Falcons don’t blow anyone out. I’ll take the road team getting more than a TD. 

Stocking stuffers:

GB-5

LAC +13.5

Baltimore- +5.5

Northwestern +6.5

Troy -7.5

Mono: Baltimore +5.5 over San Francisco

This is a heavyweight bout. Fitting, given the day of reckoning in Saudi on Saturday night (4 heavyweight bouts including Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua). Enough about that, its Christmas week and it feels like the books are giving us a last minute present. More than field goal either way in this showdown? Both offenses are top 5 in total yards. San Francisco is a little better balanced. Baltimore does favor the running game. Passing lanes should be open for Lamar and company. The Ravens have been vocal about the disrespect of this line. The old belief is that the home team gets three points which means odds makers think SF would be a 2 point favorite on a neutral field. In a potential Super Bowl preview, I like the winner to squeak by with a late field goal. Ravens keep this within the number and that disrespect they’re feeling just may propel them to an outright victory. Lamar plays the Grinch!  Ravens win 24-20.  Merry Christmas!

Brutal:  Utah State -1.5 over Georgia State

Georgia State is down many of their best players. Georgia State’s top two running backs, their top Receiver, their top CB and their top lineman are all not making the trip.  This is a much closer trip for Utah State.  I can’t imagine anyone from Georgia is making the trip to Boise. Georgia State has lost their last five.  The Georgia State defense hasn’t showed up in these games. Compare that to Utah State that has won three of their last four. A team from the South going to Idaho in the cold is never a good idea. How motivated can Georgia State be? Not to mention the Utah State QB will be playing his last game because next year he will be a NAVY SEAL!  What’s not to like.

Philly: Dolphins-Cowboys Under 50.5

The Dolphins continue to dominate below average teams while the Cowboys got knocked off their high horse last week in Buffalo. Both teams have had inconsistent defenses, but this is a crucial game for both teams to build their confidence. The Dolphins need to win a game against an opponent that is a playoff caliber team. When they struggle to score early, they have trouble in those games. The Cowboys on the other hand were just gashed against the Bills. I think the Cowboys will be fine, but I can see both defenses being asked to step up. For that reason, we will take the under on a very high total.

Bob: Dallas +2 Over Miami

There is no way that Dallas doesn’t show up Sunday and not give a great effort.  The Cowboys were pushed around last week by the Bills. The Bills ran all over them. Their manhood has been questioned.  The pride has to come out this week. Dallas’s defense was not built for the way the Bills played last week. BUT, you know who the Dallas defense is built to stop? A team like, Miami. Dallas has the team speed on defense to make it difficult on Tua. If you can take away Tua’s first read and get him off schedule then the Miami offense has struggled this year. I think Dallas can do that exact thing. The Cowboys offense that had been rolling, but threw a dud last week.  I believe there is too much talent on that offense to not bounce back this week. Miami hasn’t proven they can beat a good team all year.  Let them prove to me they can beat a good team that we know is going to show up and give a great effort.