Stone Cold Locks- New Year's Edition

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 56-53-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 370-285-14=56%

Mr. Over/Under: Teaser: Philly -3.5/ Green Bay +9

Did anyone really think that San Fran, Dallas, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Denver would all lose last week? How could the Bills lose to the 2 worst teams in their division? How could anyone believe that Houston would be tied with Jacksonville & Indy, for their division, lead after 16-weeks? Yes, this has been one of the most difficult seasons to pick winners, let alone against the spread. That’s why I’m going back to the 7-point teaser, which has done well for me this year. I love Philly hosting Arizona. Arizona gave up 250 rushing yards last week in Chicago. Now they travel further east to play a team that can run the ball. Green Bay and Minnesota are still in the playoff hunt. I think Green Bay has the better QB and their getting points in a division game. Parley Philly -3.5 with the Packers getting +9 and make it a Happy New Year.  

Man in Stripes: Cincinnati +7.5 over KC

Probably the worst stretch of football in the Mahomes/Reid era!!! They’ve lost 4 of 5 and already have lost four home games. Frustration is mounting, helmet being thrown,

and negative post-game comments being thrown around!!!  Maybe too much Taylor Swift!!!!This is a short week, and the injuries are mounting with Pacheco and Tony doubtful. KC is in a month-long funk and coming off a bad loss Christmas Day.  The Bengals are coming off a bad loss as well, but they get an extra 2-day rest advantage. The Bengals might get Chase back too. Cincinnati is still battling to get into the post season even with a back-up QB.  The Bengals normally play well at Arrowhead. The crowd has been becoming more and more anxious. I’ll say Cincinnati keeps it close and maybe pulls the upset. Love the Bengals with more than a TD!!!!!

2 Extras to ring in the New Year!!!

LAC +5.5- Broncos a hot mess!!!

Bama ML- Saban with a month to prepare!!!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!

Mono: Bucs -2.5 over Saints

This Bucs team is on the brink of another NFC South crown. October and November were not kind to this team that went 2-6 in that stretch. Since then they have won four straight and have a chance to ice the NFC South crown with a win at home on Sunday. Baker has turned back the clock and may have earned a few more seasons at the helm. He’s surrounded by weapons, and they are finally making plays. The Saints on the other hand are coming off a big loss to the Rams where the team didn’t show up until the five-minute mark of the fourth quarter. When you look at the Saints season as a whole they haven’t been too impressive beating who they should and losing in head scratching fashion. The offense often goes dormant, and the defense is showing their age. With two teams heading in opposite directions, I’m banking on the home side. The Bucs are loaded with playoff experience from previous playoff runs. Let’s not forget even with Tom Brady they were sneaking away with division titles in similar fashion. Baker and Todd Bowles get to write their chapter and it begins Sunday with a division-clinching win. Bucs win 24-14.

Brutal:  Ole Miss +5 over Penn State

 The Nittany Lions are the perennial bronze medalist in the Big Ten.  They are a clear level below the gold & silver medalists Ohio State and Michigan year after year.  Those two monolithic mammoth monstrosities spend, spend, cheat and spend some more to retain that lofty perch in an endless loop of deep pockets analytics that breeds football success.  Penn State can't beat them, but they can dominate the rest of the Big Ten ( Actually the ever expanding oxymoron has fourteen teams and will add two next year so it is the "Big Sixteen" with more corporate raiding & pillaging to follow).  Dominating the rest of the Big Ten is a dubious achievement.  The other eleven teams probably couldn't win the title in Conference USA, the American Conference, the Sunbelt or the Mountain West Conferences; .... maybe the MAC?  That's how far the Big Ten has fallen, and they are hoping the ransoming absorption of UCLA and USC next season will elevate overall play to mask this embarrassment. 

  Penn State probably couldn't win any of the previously mentioned "lesser" conferences either.  In this Peach Bowl game they face a top tier SEC team with a talent, speed and coaching edge that is far more battle hardened.  The game is indoors, on fast turf and below the Mason-Dixon line; all Rebel pluses on the football ledger for Ole Miss. 

  Head coach Lane "Sneaky & Shifty" Kiffin also knows that Penn State is still a brand name with distinction, and beating up on a once legendary program is a CV/Legacy bonus.  The Midnight Irsay of college football will motivate his team likewise.  Ole Miss has won ten games this year, has an incoming top recruiting class and transport portal haul for next year.  A big win here continues their momentum.  Mississippi has lost only one starter to the transport portal and several inconsequential backups.  They are poised for attack.  Penn State has lost their top defensive player, DE Chop Robinson as well as All-Big Ten CB Johnny Dixon who have made executive decisions to embrace risk management protocols to preserve the maximum financial potential of their upcoming professional careers. 

  Penn State rates near the top of most defensive category statistics for the entire country.  However, that was accumulated against the aforementioned dregs of the Big Ten.  Speed kills, and the Rebels are not the sloth paced Iowa Hawkeyes or Michigan State Spartans.  It makes you wonder if the conference should lose its "power five" status. 

  Penn State travels well, but a split crowd in the Georgia Dome's successor won't make a big difference.  Ole Miss is the play here on the spread and the money line to win outright!  

Philly: Baltimore -3 over Miami

The Dolphins are coming off an impressive win, stepping it up against a good team in Dallas. Problem is, the Ravens are ROLLING!!! Lamar is on a revenge tour and blowing by everyone in his way. He finally has a group of receivers that can get open and run after the catch. The Ravens defense has been lights out.  This isn’t about the Dolphins.  I’m taking the Ravens -3 against anyone at this point and time.

Bob: Rams-Giants Over 44

This number was hanging around 41.5 all week before the news that Tyrod Taylor will be QB of the Giants. The number jumped up because it’s obvious that the Giants offense can score more with Tyrod than with Tommy Devito under center.  The Rams are on a roll and look like one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  In the NFC they are the team you don’t want to face in the playoffs. In terms of the Over Matt Stafford has historically done very well against the blitz. Wink Martindale the Giants DC is a pressure guy. That’s what he always does. I believe that Stafford has the weapons to do well against this defense. Not to mention the Rams RB Kyren Williams has been a scoring machine recently as he has helped many making their fantasy football championship game.  I looked at the weather forecast, and it called for zero chance of rain so it might be in the 30’s but it doesn’t appear that weather should hurt scoring.