Stone Cold Locks Thanksgiving Weekend

Stone Cold Locks

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 33-36-1

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record 52-52-4

2019 Record 62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 349-269-12=56%

Mr. Over/Under: San Francisco -7 over Seattle

For the last 4-years, Buffalo and Kansas City were 2 of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. So what changed this year? Both Buffalo and KC have only gone over 3-times this season. Even teams like Houston, the Chargers and Detroit, plus four others are outscoring the Bills & Chiefs. While scoring is down this year, one team may have the perfect combination of high scoring and a strong defense. San Francisco has allowed less than 16-points per game this year, while averaging 28-points. They’re going into Seattle on Thanksgiving, where starting QB Geno Smith (elbow) may not play. Since the trade for Chase Young, the 49ers are on a roll with a +6 turnover ratio in their last 2-games. I like San Francisco -7

Man in Stripes: Teaser: Lions -1.5 and Cowboys -5

Lions have been one of the best stories in the NFL and they have the coach of the year in Dan Campbell. Campbell has turned things around in two years. Lions have a great offense, and a solid defense, which will be going up against a Packers team without Aaron Jones. Jordan Love is very underwhelming, so let’s tease this down past all of the major numbers to just a point and a half.

As for the Cowboys they have been destroying bad teams at home. Cowboys are 4-0 ats at home and have been winning by 24 points at home. Sam Howell has been sacked 51 times this year. That’s not good going up against this Dallas front four. Good luck Ron Rivera, who’s dead man walking in Washington. I know Dallas is 1-11 ats the last 12 on turkey day and that’s why we teased it down to a reasonable number.

Turkey Leftovers:

Steelers -1.5 no Burrow and new OC gets a spark.

Miss St +10.5- Bulldogs at home for the Egg bowl in a rivalry game. Need win for a bowl.

Balt/LAC Over 45.5 two great QB’s light it up in Sofi.

Mono: Tulane -3.5 over UTSA

This is a welcome to the AAC moment for the Roadrunners. They have had a nice schedule this year going 7-0 against the bottom half of the conference and avoiding the likes of SMU and Memphis. This is their first real test at Tulane. The winner books a spot in the title game against most likely SMU. Tulane comes in winning nine straight after an early season loss at Ole Miss. Michael Pratt and this Green Wave offense can score and their defense is one of the best against the run in the country. Frank Harris and the Roadrunners offense can score but they can turn it over too. I can see Harris trying to play hero ball when the Roadrunners can’t run. Tulane should pull away late and get a date in the title game. Green Wave win 20-13.

Brutal: Washington State +16.5 over Washington

This might unfortunately be the last Apple Cup because of the foolishness of college football. If so, then we think it will be a good one. Washington State hit a bad stretch in mid-season but has bounced back with a blowout of Colorado last week. Washington needs a win for the playoff and I’m rooting for them, but I think the Cougars make them earn it. The Washington defense has given up points this year and I see a tight game. Washington State needs this win for bowl eligibility so they will be motivated.

Philly: Bills +3.5 over Philadelphia

I’ll tell you what. I promised myself I would give up on the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen was making decisions like a 4thgrader playing madden all the time. The defense, normally bend but don’t break, was getting cooked by the likes of Mac Jones and Russell Wilson. But the Eagles put the time and energy in besting the Chiefs last week in a revenge Super Bowl loss. Josh Allen got his swagger back and its ready to bring Philadelphia back to reality in a statement game for the Bills. I’m actually going with the Bills money line.

Bob: Teaser: Detroit -1.5, Miami -3.5

The Lions didn’t play a good game last week against Chicago but still pulled out a win. They stay at home for their traditional 12:30 kick-off on Turkey day! I can’t see them playing two bad games in a row at home. Jared Goff threw three interceptions last week against Chicago. He bounces back with a better performance. Goff usually plays better at home. Jordan Love had a great game last week at home vs the Chargers. He reverts back to form on the road this week.

Miami plays the first black Friday game against the Jets. This line started at 7.5 and then it was announced that Zach Wilson was benched for Tim Boyle. The line has shot up to 9.5. I guess this means that people think Tim Boyle is two points worse than Zach Wilson. I’ve seen Wilson and that means the Boyle is horrible. The Jets defense might keep it close for a half, but Miami has too much firepower not to blow this open in the second half. I don’t need a blowout just win by 4. I see the Dolphins accomplishing that goal with ease.