Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 44-18
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 440-321-14=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: BUFFALO -6.5 over San Francisco
Let me share with you a couple of interesting NFL Turkey Day stats. Detroit hasn’t won a Thanksgiving Day game since 2016. Expect that streak to end. The Giants are 0-9 on Thursday games since 2017 and 2-22 on non-Sunday games since 2017. I expect that losing streak to continue. Division games have been tough to call this year. Take last week’s game between Cleveland & Pittsburgh or Houston & Tennessee. Games with teams that play each other twice a year, can go either way, no matter what their record are. I was going to take the Bengals this week, as Pittsburgh has lost it’s last 7 December road games and Joe Burrow is tied with Lamar, leading the league with 27-touchdowns, BUT I’m going with the Red, White & Blue of Buffalo. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in their last 5-games. while San Fran has averaged 20. Purdy is questionable, as of today (Wednesday) while the Bills are getting healthier. If Miami loses to Green Bay Thursday, the Bills will clinch their division with a win. I expect the weather to be cold and the Bills, with a week off to be hot. Take Buffalo -6.5
Man in Stripes: Pitt +3.5 @ Cincy
A very stinky line here. The 8-3 Steelers getting points at the 4-7 Bengals. Does Vegas know something we don't here?? I have a Steelers over 8.5 wins ticket in my wallet, (taxes/ death/ Tomlin over .500) so let's win them BOTH!!!! All the trends lead towards the black & gold!! Tomlin is 65% SU after a loss, Steelers are 65% ATS as a road dog. This D is top 5 in the NFL. Yes, Joe Burrows is possibly having his best season ever, and they have some weapons, but the Cincy O line is horrible, given up 3rd most sacks in NFL, TJ Watt should be salivating!! Throw in the extra rest, playing last Thursday in snowy Cleveland, and needing to stay with the Ravens at the top of the AFC North. This spot SCREAM STEELERS!!
A few Turkey Day leftovers:
Dallas -4.5 , Gmen need Danny Devito
Bills -6.5, off bye, Niners banged up as per usual
Kansas-1.5 Giant Killers, in Lance We Trust
Sparty-1.5, to get bowl eligible
UPSET SPECIAL, CUSE +11.5 , IN THE DOME THE OVERRATED CANES GO DOWN..
Good luck , and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!!!!
Mono: Kansas -1.5 over Baylor
Goin with Kanas -1.5 @ Baylor this weekend. This Jayhawk team has failed to live up to expectations this year with a senior duo in the backfield. We talked about that a few weeks ago. Since, they’ve strung off 3 straight and if they won’t have a chance to play in the Big12 championship, they certainly did their part in deciding who will be there. They sit at 5-6 and have a chance to secure a bowl game, which I’m sure everyone in that locker room thought was a guarantee going into the season. This could be a sleepy spot and a bit of a trap. Baylor has won 5 straight, which might’ve saved Dave Arandas job. With that said, they’ve won the games they should’ve, beating up on the bottom tier of the conference. Kansas on paper is part of that group, but if you’ve watched them play this past month, they look like the team that had that conference title aspirations in August. This will be a tug of war and whoever controls the line of scrimmage will win this game. Devin Neal and Jalon Daniels won’t let this be their last games in a Jayhawk uniform. Take Kansas to win and cover this small number. Happy turkey day!
Brutal: SAN JOSE ST -2.5 over STANFORD
Last week we experienced a bad-beat as they say this century when a game goes south against logic, the laws of probability and the particular bet you placed. UCLA (+5) was trailing USC 16-13 with just 4 minutes to go and holding all 3 timeouts. We assumed at 4th and 2 from their own 30-yard line that the Bruins would punt, pin the Trojans in their own end and use their timeouts to preserve some clock for a final game tying or winning drive (This game was low scoring as we predicted, and the UCLA defense had stopped USC all night). For some reason, defying common sense, UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster decided he was Evel Knievel and recklessly went for it. They could not run the ball all day between the tackles; so of course, OC-Associate Head Coach Eric Bieniemy called some sort of run play that resulted in despair, depression and a loss of two yards. Congratulations, the Trojans got the ball on downs and ate up the clock; the Bruins burned all three timeouts and USC kicked a field goal, stretching the margin to 19-13. We still had a shot, lots of time for a final drive, but no timeouts and QB Ethan Garbers choked quickly and consistently, and we lose. We out-rushed them, we out-passed them and led 13-9 going into the fourth with a 5-point margin in a low scoring game. Coaching decisions can kill you.
This week we are taking another left coast rivalry, but further north. Time was, this was an on-again, off-again Bay Area rivalry that would always play a distant second to the annual Big Game Cal-Stanford contest. This rivalry is known now as the Bill Walsh Legacy Game, but it started in 1900!........ Over the years, it was often a beat-down exhibition game for Stanford to pad their stat sheet and get the rust off before playing the rest of the now all-extinct Pac 8, Pac 10, Pac 12. Stanford would not bother playing the game if it suited them over the years, so in 124 years they have played 67 times. Stanford leads this series by a huge margin, 52-14-1. However, Stanford has hosted this game 63 of the 67 games in the series! Now that is a Big Brother home advantage! After the inaugural game in 1900, which San Jose Stadium hosted, the Spartans went 95 years before they hosted another game. Well, this year SAN JOSE STATE (-2.5) is favored for the first time in decades and is hosting for only the 5th time in history! The last time they hosted was 2006, and that was the last time the Spartans beat the Cardinal. Then Stanford won 6 in a row and promptly cancelled the series in 2013. State and Local political pressure brought the game back this year after a 12-year hiatus, and it is in San Jose Stadium again.
Stanford could have won in the Big Game last week but ended up losing in Berkeley 24-21. That was their Super Bowl, and they crashed. They are 3-8, not going to a Bowl game and have started emptying their lockers. They cannot have a great attitude driving 20 miles across Silicon Valley to play this game. San Jose has played well this year. Last week they lost a tough game to UNLV and the week before they were competitive for 3 quarters with Boise State. Well, both those teams are ranked and a lot better than Stanford. San Jose State is 6-5 and already bowl eligible, so the motivation is all pure hate and local bragging rights in this rivalry renewal. The Spartans have had this game circled all year. I will bet most of the Stanford players did not even know they had another game after the loss to California.
Go Tell the Spartans! We will give the 2.5 points and take the alma mater of Dian Fossey, Christopher Darden, Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham and the man this game is now named for: Bill Walsh.
Bob: Bowling Green -2.5 over Miami-Ohio
This is a battle of two of the best teams in the MAC. The winner goes to the MAC title game. I have thought since the beginning of the season that Bowling Green is the best team in the MAC. In September the Falcons went into Happy Valley and lost a one score game to Penn State. The following week BG went to Kyle Field and lost a one score game to Texas A&M. Both A&M and Penn State are currently as of this article still in play for the college football playoff. The one concern is BG’s all world TE Harold Fannin is a game time decision following a concussion. In terms of common opponents let’s take last week as an example. BG won in Ball State by 25. Three weeks ago, Miami Ohio won by six in Ball State. Let’s take the better team at home laying under a field goal.
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