STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 10

Stone Cold Locks

By Bob Gaughan

2024 record 33-14

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 429-317-14=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: CHARGERS -1/2, VIKINGS +1/2 7-POINT TEASER

For all you Giants fans, here’s a little trivia. Your team is favored this week for the first time in 24-games. But who hasn’t been favored against Carolina? Beware, teams that lose against the Panthers fire their head coach. Looking forward .to the Commanders/Steelers game this week. Good offense against good defense. The Tomlin-led Steelers are 25-6 against rookie QBs.

I found 2-games I feel strongly about this week. When that happens, and I can’t decide on which one to go with, I go with both, but on a 7-point teaser. T.J. Hockenson is back for Minnesota against the 31st ranked Jacksonville passing defense. The Chargers are home against a Tennessee team that is 1-7 against the spread, but I don’t like that line. So lets take the Chargers & Vikings with an extra 7-points and parley a 2-team teaser. Chargers minus a half and Vikings plus a half..

Man in Stripes: SF -6 @ Tampa

Let's dust ourselves off after last week. As we head to Tampa again, for what is a major rest mismatch. The Niners , will be coming off their bye, Shanahan is over 70% ATS after a bye. They are healthy as they have been all year. Mc Caffrey, Samuel and Jennings, all are trending to play. For CMC, it's his first action of the year, might be on a pitch count, either way, a major addition for the Niners, who at 4-4, look to sprint to the finish line again, (7-1 SU last 8 games last year). The division and conference are wide open for SF again.

The Bucs are completing a brutal back to back with both of last year's SB teams, coming off a disheartening loss at KC on MNF. Injuries still an issue, Mike Evans still out, Chris Godwin out for year. At 4-5, their season is holding on by a string right now!!! This is a classic letdown spot for the Bucs, as on 8-day rest advantage, here comes the Niner Express for the rest of the year!!! Love that it's under a TD, and if you feel frisky, alternate lines -9.5,-13.5 can get you some plus money here!! SF-6, good luck, let's start a new winning streak!!!!

Mono: UNDER 46.5 in MINNESOTA-RUTGERS

Got hot now gotta stay hot. We lock into a total on Saturday and go to Piscataway for the under 46.5 in Rutgers - Minnesota. Rutgers looking to get back on track and welcome the gophers, who have won 4 straight. Minny has done so behind a strong defense, locking down teams through the air. Rutgers is on the opposite trend, losers of 4 straight. In their home building and off a bye, I expect them to show some life. They sport a strong running game and that’s key for this under. Their air attack is bleak, especially against this Minnesota pass defense. I expect a field possession game in this one with run game from both sides controlling the clock. This one feels like it’s a race to 20 and that keeps us under this number. Take the under 46.5

Brutal: HAWAII +14 Over UNLV

Go-Go versus Run-and-Shoot

  The Hawaiian word mana-olana means hope; it also means floating thoughts & peace through ethereal stimulation.  Well, that maybe says something interesting about the optimism of the indigenous Hawaiian culture; we could sure use more of it in our own current zeitgeist, sadly reshaping, morphing and devolving into chaotic deformity.   In this case, mana-olana applies to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors who need two wins in their last three games to become Bowl-Eligible. If all the cards fall into place, they then will host the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.  Ahh, what a tradition that was.  From 1999 to 2007, head coach June Jones and his Mouse Davis inspired Run-and-Shoot offense.  It confounded so-called elite conference teams, giving them big trouble if they came out to Oahu (usually early in the season to perform an almost exhibition game slaughter of a hapless Rainbow Warrior team) and did not prepare seriously.  The trip to Hawaii was the one attraction that would push some big teams to forgo their resistance to ever play a road game on a smaller school home field.  The very idea!!!!!!  However, Hawaii got so good under June Jones that big conference teams started to turn down the opportunity to let their team fly out to paradise and play because it became obvious, they just might lose a game that was supposed to be a cupcake on the schedule.  The most famous example was the University of Texas in the year 2000 who went right into the summer before cancelling their season opener in Hawaii (even though the schedule deadline had long passed, the toothless NCAA of course barely gave them a slap-on-the-wrist; well, nothing new there!) This truly pissed off a few thousand deep pocket alum and other Texas fans who had booked their Christmas vacations around this game.  There were even lawsuits! ...... ha, ha, now there is some elitist, first world problem crap!

  Throughout the decade June Jones was in Oahu, Hawaii routinely hosted their own Bowl Game each Christmas and they usually won, beating some quality opposition like Arizona State, BYU, Houston, Boise State; they even lost an entertaining game to Notre Dame.  In his last year in Honolulu, Jones and the Warriors lost to Georgia in a BCS game.  An incredible accomplishment for a limited resource, small school that is seven time zones away from almost everybody in the SEC and Big10!

  Well, here in 2024, Hawaii has not played on their island for five years in the Hawaii Bowl, and the fans, students & alum need this game to bring back some pride to a once borderline revolutionary, innovative & influential football team.  More than that, Tourism Hawaii & the Honolulu Chamber of Conference need Chang and the Warriors to become Bowl Eligible.  They saw millions of tourism dollars disappear over the last decade as attendance for the Hawaii Bowl plummeted without the University of Hawaii participating in it.  So, they are praying for Hawaii to be Bowl Eligible.  The State of Hawaii could really use the taxation revenue as well to help rebuild the recent devastation in the islands from Tropical Storms that are increasing in intensity due to climate change.  Current head coach Timmy Chang quarterbacked some of those June Jones teams while running up NCAA passing records with an average arm, just like #13 all-time in career passing yards Colt Brennan did under during the same June Jones regime.  Chang is actually #3 all-time for career passing yards in the NCAA, actually #1 if you count only quarterbacks who played at one school!!!  Last week, Hawaii got their biggest win of the year, beating Fresno State 21-20 on the mainland, putting them back in the running for this rare home game Bowl prize.  Now, this 2024 version of the Run-and-shoot offence is nowhere near as potent as twenty years ago, but the Rainbow Warrior defense has been steadily improving all year.

  UNLV started the year on fire, even getting ranked by the elitist, snobby pollsters.  Then their QB, Matthew Sluka left over a NIL dispute. This is something we will probably see a lot more of in the new, hyper-capitalist college football universe; a Wild West of Transfer Portals, corporate funding, competitive manipulation and gypsy-professional college football players.  UNLV did not miss a beat for a couple of weeks with the Sluka replacement at QB, but The Rebels have cooled off a bit and their own innovative, Go-Go offense installed by head coach Barry Odom has slowed.  Two weeks ago they lost a gut wrencher 29-24 to then #17, now #12 Boise State with their Heisman candidate running machine Ashton Jeanty.  That was two weeks ago, so UNLV has had an extra week to prepare for Hawaii, ......or,......... sink into a two week depression and contemplate they have little chance left of winning the Mountain West and no chance of being the Group of Five representative in the inaugural college football playoff.  Subconsciously some of the team may be already bargaining that they may as well go to Hawaii and have a really good time and put football second.

  Now, I know what you are thinking, being from Las Vegas, the Rebels may not be as prone as other young men to the temptations of the festive atmosphere surrounding the Hawaiian Islands, so they may stay focused on football.  This was also true (at least in theory and for different faith based logic) for Utah, BYU and Utah State who all regularly came to Hawaii.  Regardless of piety, abstinence and not ingesting caffeine, they still usually lost to the June Jones Machine. This contest is also a day game, the temperature could be close to ninety degrees, but in the sunshine it could hit the mid-to-high nineties, maybe over 100 degrees.  Hawaii deliberately has the visiting team bench situated on the intense sunlight side of the stadium, while the Rainbow Warriors are in the shade from the late afternoon sun.  This has really helped them a few times over the years as I can attest to.  I realize UNLV plays in the desert, but most of their home games are played in the evening because the Mojave cools down a lot in the Lost Wages, Nevada night.

  So hopefully UNLV will suffer a little, and if the game is close late, bonus! ..... the local climate will most certainly be a factor.  Also, Hawaii heat is not quite the dry heat the UNLV Rebels are used to!  Hawaii should cover two touchdowns and has a shot at the win!  Nobody is cheering for them harder than me and the Honolulu Chamber of Commerce!

  Hawaii heading back to the Hawaii Bowl is mana-olana!  Things will be back as they should be, it is destiny.  At least a small part of the universe will be restored, and through many such corrections, the orbital trajectory of this mortal coil orbit will thus right itself eventually. 

  HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS (+14)

  Mana-olana to everybody.

Bob: Indiana -14 over Michigan

With holiday season around the corner this game reminds me of the classic Christmas movie “A Christmas Story”. In that movie there is a famous scene where Ralphie can’t take it anymore and beats up bully Scott Farkus.  This reminds me of this game. Indiana has beaten Michigan once since 1987, and in that game, there were no fans because of COVID. So, Indiana hasn’t beaten Michigan in front of fans since 1987. The Hoosiers will run up the score if possible.  Now you might think this is dangerous because number one Oregon only beat Michigan by 21.  Looking closer into that game Michigan was held to 11 first downs and the Ducks out gained the Wolverines by 200 yards.  Oregon also lost the turnover battle.  So that game wasn’t as close as the score might indicate.  Let’s take Ralphie to continue to pound on Scott Farkas until his mother pulls him off. Indiana finally has the better team,

and they will be more than happy to show it at home on Saturday. Indiana hasn’t been a favorite over Michigan since 1976! The Hoosiers have to make impressive wins as the committee has under seeded them for the 12-team tournament. They will run up the score to impress the committee and to stick it to Michigan as an added bonus.