Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 36-16
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 432-319-14=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: Detroit -13 over Jacksonville
There are some exciting matchups this week in the NFL. I don’t like to bet games like Bills/ Chiefs, Ravens/Steelers and Bengals/Chargers, because they’re fun to watch and can cause your heart to beat more than it should. So, I’m betting the game with the biggest point spread this week. Detroit came away with a stinky win last week at Houston. Now they’re back home against the Jaguars, where they love to score points. Jacksonville is starting their back-up QB Mac Jones; against a team that’s 7-2 against the spread. Earlier this year the Lions were favored by 12 at home against Tennessee and won 52-14. Did I forget to tell you that Jacksonville is last in total defense? Sure 13 points is a lot to cover, but if any team can do it, it’s the Lions at home. Take Detroit -13.
Man in Stripes: Cincinnati/ LAC OVER 45
The Bengals coming off their mini bye and their wild 35-34 loss in Baltimore. Burrow &Co. 7-2 to over last 9. Have scored 75 last 2, given up 96 last 3. Team is healthy. Joe Cool has been as hot as anytime in his career. Top 5 in scoring, bottom 10 in defense. As for LAC, don't let 2-8 to over scare you quietly Justin Herbert has had a great season. Last 3 games, they have scored 26,27,27. Offensively they have gotten several key offensive players back!! 8 for 11 in red zone, last 3 games have thrown more than any time this year. Game script has kept their game totals low. Grab lead vs bad offenses and bleeding clock. Bengals should be able to score and open this up between 2 of the top QBs from the 2020 draft. Good luck.
A couple of other nuggets:
Bills -2.5, the 72 Dolphins can pop the champagne
Colts/ Jets under 44- first one to 17 in front of at least 30,000 empty seats
Mono: Pittsburgh +3 over Baltimore
You gotta shoot to get hot, shoot to stay hot. We go back to the NFL after 3 straight Saturday plays and ride the Steelers +3 in their division opener. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 7-2 in the early going and have yet to play a divisional game… the AFC north is historically a battle, and I don’t expect that to be any different this year. The Steelers play host to a Ravens team that have been exposed a few times and looked unbeatable in others. The Steelers trademark defense is as good as they’ve been in recent years and Russ looks like he still has some left in the tank. I think this is a favorable matchup for the Steelers offense as the Ravens are dead last against the pass. Kyle Hamilton is questionable and although he’s likely to play, I’m not sure he’ll be as effective as he’s been early. Even healthy, their pass defense is bad. The Ravens can run, but the Steelers are #1 in the league against the run. Highsmith is out, but I think they’ll dare Lamar to beat them through the air, something he hasn’t been able to do against Pittsburgh, as he’s 1-3 in his career in this matchup. This AFC north is gonna be a dogfight down the stretch and it will be key to defend your home field. As we all know, home dogs bark, give me the Steelers +3 in a game they can win straight up.
Brutal: Grey Cup: Toronto Argonauts (+10.5) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
The Argos won the Eastern Final last week as we predicted, beating the favored Montreal Alouettes. However, they did it with a backup QB in the second half because their starter Chad Kelly went down with a broken leg. Unfortunately this is too severe an injury for any Willis Reed coming out of the locker room to lead the Knickerbockers past the Lakers for the NBA Championship with a severe thigh injury that nobody thought he could play with, ...... or Bobby Baun scoring a goal for the Maple Leafs on a fractured ankle and in overtime to help the Toronto Maple Leafs tie the series at 3-3 before the Leafs won the Stanley Cup in game seven; or Michael Jordan & Wayne Gretzky both playing exceptional games and leading their teams to playoff wins while fighting severe influenza infections. Nope, Chad Kelly is out and cannot even make the trip to British Columbia. Veteran CFL QB-for-hire, Have-Arm-Will-Travel Nick Arbuckle (Georgia State) will be helming the good ship Argonaut in the one hundred and eleventh Grey Cup in B.C. Place on Sunday.
Winnipeg handled Saskatchewan last week as expected. They started the year slow, coming off their Grey Cup upset loss to Montreal last year. They looked old and a little slow in that game; at the start of this season, they looked even slower and older. They then went on a steadily building run and won the Western Conference. But the fact is that they are old; the core of this roster has won a couple of Grey Cups already and this Sunday may be their last chance to win another title before the team has to be rebuilt. Head coach Mike O Shea will not have a surprising offensive game plan; a heavy dose of Canadian running-back Brady Oliveira (North Dakota) who at 5 foot 10 and 233 pounds is a load! The passing game will be measured, replete with safe passes and occasional play-action from veteran QB Zach Collaros (University of Cincinnati).
Good! because that means it will be the type of conservative game the Argos with their very good defense and excellent special teams can keep close. That means a far better chance of the under being hit and a double-digit spread being covered; the two go hand-in-hand, The wildcard is the Argo special teams. They are explosive! KR & PR specialist Janarion Grant (Rutgers) is dynamite. This year he had just under 1,000 punt return yards and three touchdowns. He also had the highest average on kick-off returns, over 24 yards per return including a monster 103-yard return for a touchdown (the
kicking and return game is still very important, entertaining and productive in the CFL. No fair catches!). Grant just might make the difference not only in covering this double digit spread but possibly winning the game for the Double Blue.
Chad Kelly has a big Western New York connection. He of course if the nephew of legendary QB Jim Kelly and was born in Buffalo and attended St. Joes Catholic High School in Tonawanda. Well, his replacement Nick Arbuckle has a Niagara Frontier connection too! He went to St. Bonaventure! Okay, it was not the Franciscan St. Bonaventure University in Allegany, New York, but St. Bonaventure High School in Ventura, California. It does not matter! They are both Roman Catholic and the names are the same which is good enough to please the football gods of karma!
Destiny, Karma and a double digit spread in a traditionally close and unpredictable game. Jason and the Argonauts all the way, both the Golden Fleece and the Grey Cup could be all theirs.
Arrrrggggoooosssss!!!!
Bob: Kansas +3 over BYU
Since 1978 there have been 66 instances where a 9-0 team has hosted a team with a losing record. In those 66 games every time the spread has been double digits. Here we have a 9-0 BYU team at home against a 3-6 Kansas team and the spread is only three. Vegas knows something here. It could be that Kansas had some hard luck early in the season and easily could have a winning record. The Jayhawks have finally found something this year having beat ranked Iowa State last week. The last six games Kansas is averaging 34 points per game. Let’s look at a BYU team that was so lucky to win last week at Utah. A very suspect holding call gave the Cougars life after what should have been a fourth down stop. BYU is undefeated but I heard one expert claim they are barely a top 25 team based on the talent level on the field. Kansas needs to win out to go to a bowl, so they are still motivated.
I’ll take the historic line of only three points and look for old friend Lance Leipold to bring home a victory.
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