STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 11

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 25-25

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 488-372-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER:   Miami -2.5 over Washington

If you’ve lasted this long in an NFL survivor pool, this week is going to test your luck. There are 6 games with a 3-point or less spread and three more with just a 3.5 spread. Four NFL games this week could eventually determine who wins their division. After weeks of 12, 13, and 14-point spreads, after TNF, the Browns are getting the most points at 7.5 against Baltimore. This week appears to be so challenging that I’m going all the way to Madrid, Spain for the battle of two teams with 3-7 records.

If everyone was healthy, Washington would be an easy pick here. They went as far as the NFC championship game last year, with high expectations for their 2^nd year QB. But the former Redskins have allowed an average of 38.5 points per game in the last four weeks. YIKES!  With back up QB Mariota, Washington has been outscored 72-29 in their last 2 games. The Dolphins are coming off a huge win at home against the Bills and have enough weapons to more than cover the 2.5 spread. The Dolphins are not necessarily a good team, but right now they’re better than Washington. Take the Dolphins.

Man in Stripes:  Ravens -7.5 @ Browns

Similar spot as our rocking chair win last win.. Dominant team on road, will have much of the fan support, late Sunday game where the lousy home team should tap out during the game..Two teams clearly going in different directions.. Ravens with their star QB , Lamar Jackson back in the saddle. Winners of 3 in a row, with 1st place in their sights in the AFC North( an aside , yours truly with a +360 Ravens to win division at 1-5)..They have won these by over 15 pts on average.. Their D , after a rough start, rounding into place, allowing 13 pts. a game.. 

Then we have the Browns, ENOUGH SAID!!!Only the NY Jets and Buffalo Sabres have been more of a tire fire than the Brownies the last 15 years..Its Dillion Gabriel's turn behind center, don't worry Shadeur is probably next!!! Coming off an ungodly loss to the aforementioned Jets last week.. .. There are a lot of great 4:25pm games this week..  THIS IS NOT ONE OF THEM!!! At 4-5 Ravens in NO spot to look by anyone , as they climb out of their bad start!!

Lots of bad teams in NFL this year, let's keep an eye on spots to fade them..

A few others:

NYG +7.5- new QB/ HC theory

Duke -4- unranked favorite vs ranked dog

USC -6.5- Iowa runs out of gas in So. CAL

Texas +6.5- last call for the Longhorns

AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST: THIS ONE IS FOR YOU BRUTAL.. Our resident, CFL expert.. GREY CUP- 

Montreal/ Saskatchewan UNDER 49.5!! I was in Kitchener last week at a friend’s house, saw some of both  semi final games , which were very defensive, weather might be an issue in cold Winnipeg.. Defense wins Grey Cups??? Hope for alot of missed FGs , and single points..

Good luck and enjoy the games!!! OH Canada!!!!!!

MONO: OVER 58.5 UTSA-CHARLOTTE

Going with the Over 58.5 in the UTSA - Charlotte match-up. This Charlotte team is bad. They rank in the 100'

s in every defensive category which seems hard to do. Their offense isn’t as bad as the defense, but still not good. UTSA comes out of the American conference gauntlet, going 1-2 against North Texas, Tulane (win) and South Florida the last 3 weeks. In each of those games, this total would have been smashed. The over is 7-2 in the Roadrunners 9 games. After getting beat up pretty bad by the cream of the crop in the American, UTSA is in a get right spot. Charlotte's defense has given up 48+ in each of the last 3 weeks, which includes 49 to Temple…. If we didn’t learn anything with that North Texas - Navy total 2 weeks ago, we’ll certainly learn here. I think UTSA drops 50 themselves and maybe even flirts with 60. Meep Meep. Take the over 58.5. 

Brutal: Montreal @ SASKATCHEWAN (-3)  49.5 

  Welcome to the oldest professional football championship of all time.  The only thing to disrupt this great tradition was the start of the COVID epidemic in 2020 and a little thing called World War One.   Most Canadian football players were off in Europe, helping to end forever the reign of the Prussian Kaiser of Germany as well as the rotting corpse zombie Habsburg Empire running Austro-Hungary.  Football was not as important for a few years. 

  Saskatchewan (12-6) has been on a course for this game for the entire season.  Saskatchewan is led by veteran QB Trevor Harris ( Harris is a graduate of tiny Division II Pennsylvania-Western in Edinboro, PA. He played for the Fighting Scots; one of their three official mascots is MacCato, a crazed kilt wearing Scotsman who wields exploding bagpipes on the sidelines amongst his other exploits as a cheerleader ).  In the backfield Saskatchewan has  A.J. Ouellette (Ohio University), a beast of a weapon who combines elements of Mike Alstott, Eddie George, Marshawn Lynch and Natrone Means in his running game.  He looks like a French Viking, won a Grey Cup with the Argonauts and also has a bit of Oklahoma-era Brian Bosworth in his effective-aggressive hitting and his attitude driven charisma.

  Montreal (10-8) is a tale unto themselves.  Starting QB Davis Alexander (Portland State) is playing Cinderella; he is undefeated, 13 and 0 since starting his CFL career going back to last year.  The Alouettes started this year in first place for a few months, then Alexander got hurt and Montreal slumped badly.  If Ottawa and Toronto had been any good at all this year, Montreal would have fallen to last place and out of the playoffs.  Then, Davis Alexander came back and went undefeated over the last month; the Alouettes clinched second place behind Hamilton.    

 When this line came out at SASKATCHEWAN (-2), I was all over it.  It turns out so were many others and the oddsmakers raised it to -3 and even flirted with -3.5.  It really is this simple:  Saskatchewan has been the best team in the CFL all year.  Eighty percent of the fans on Sunday night will likely be Roughrider supporters ( Saskatchewan and Manitoba border each other and Western Canadians almost never cheer for an Eastern team in this game ). The Riders travel really well, Montreal not so much. The Roughriders are poised, well rested and focused on this game.  If you had to bet your life on one side in this game, a game being played in the West, at a small spread, this is the way to go.  

  Saskatchewan is Canada's Green Bay, both the Roughriders and the Packers are community owned and have a historic mystique in their respective leagues.  Saskatchewan despite being the favorite is the sentimental choice of most Canadians.  The country needs an indulgence amidst the current political atmosphere, the ongoing tariff stupidity and the tragic, incomprehensible defeat of the Toronto Blue Jays ( In that case even Western Canadians were cheering for the National Team ).  I think the Riders will feel all of that energy, more so than Montreal playing in Winnipeg.

  Weather will be just below freezing with the regular prairie wind gusts, slight advantage Roughriders.  The game could be lower scoring with these two defenses, but the spread has stayed under a touchdown, so even in a defensive struggle we should be able to cover.  All streaks come to an end; Cinderella slips and falls at the ball.  My psychic powers see a 13 and 1 forming in the record book. ....... We will take the Green Riders in the Peg at -3. 

Bob: Minnesota-3 over Chicago

Must win for the Vikings in this one as they come in at 4-5 after a tough loss to Baltimore last week.  The best unit on the field this week will be the Vikings defense that gives up a solid 317 yards per game.  This unit is led by Brian Flores who may find his way to another head coaching job in the next few years. Last week the Vikings out gained the Ravens but lost because they turned the ball over three times. Last week the Bears got lucky to beat the Giants.  If Jaxson Dart wasn’t injured I feel they would have lost.  The lost cost Brian Daboll his job. I’ve never been a fan of Caleb Williams and feel the Vikings defense can keep him in check.  The Bears defense has been well below average giving up 27 points and 375 yards per game.  Their defense has turned the ball over masking what is a below average unit.  I like the home team that needs it more with the much better defense.