STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 14
- bgaughan5
- Dec 6, 2024
- 7 min read
Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 47-20
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 443-323-14=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: TEASER: Tennessee +3.5 and Miami +.5
An NFL team’s record doesn’t always indicate where they stand when it comes to betting. For example, the Chiefs record of 11-1 looks outstanding, but against the spread (ATS) they’re 4-7-1. The Panthers have a 3-9 record but have gone over the total 9 of the 12 times. Tennessee is the worst ATS this year at 2-10 but are favored this week and I expect them to cover. However, if you’ve been with me over the years, you know I hate 3.5 and 6.5 spreads. So, I’m going back to another 7-point teaser parley this week. Jacksonville has allowed the most yards and 4th most points this year. Plus, the Jaguars with Mac Jones, now starting in place of Lawrence, has only scored 13-points in his 2 starts this year. Now, how about those Jets? While they continue to fall apart, the Dolphins still have an outside chance for the playoffs. I can’t see Miami losing at home this week. So, I’m taking Tennessee +3.5 with Miami plus a half, on a 2-team parley with the additional 7-points.
Man in Stripes: Cincy @ Dallas over 48.5
Well, we went heavy with trends last week. Tomlin as a home dog and came away with a rocking chair win. Let's look at numbers again this week. Cincy and the Cowgirls, sorry Dallas fans, are a combined 17-7; to the over. Cowboys have struggled on defense going against, Joe Burrows, who would be in the MVP discussion, if not for the Bengals 4-8 record. He's flinging the ball all over. Now, the Cincy's defense is a train wreck. Have up over 40 to Russell Wilson and the Steelers last week. Dallas playing better on offense w Cooper Rush, still have some weapons. Throw in neither team playing for anything, dome stadium, perfect climate, and a Monday night, look for both teams to play very loose. Come on if Cleveland/ Denver can score over 70 on MNF, this one should follow suit. Played Cincy over in a dome on SNF, came home easy let's try again.
Good luck!!
Couple of early stocking stuffers:
Bears +4.5- new coach theory
LAC +4.5, Chiefs can't luck out every week, can they?? Loss #2 for Mahomes and Co.
Army +6.5- Letdown for Tulane.. Thank you for your cover Cadets
Oregon -3.5- Franklin 1-1000 vs top 10.. Who have Lions beat?????
Mono: UNLV +4 over Boise State
Goin with the Rebels of UNLV +4 in the Mountain West Championship. Boise State has kept a firm grasp on the group of 5 playoff bid all season, looking great in some spots and shaky in others. This is the final test to get in and a rematch against a team who gave them their toughest test aside from their loss against Oregon. Jeanty has shined and is a deserving Heisman candidate, arguably the favorite. He had success in the first game, scoring once on the ground and surpassing 120 rush yards. This pick is more about the revenge spot for UNLV than anything. Boise does not have a strong passing attack, and I anticipate UNLV loads the box and dares Madsen to beat them through the air. UNLVs QB, Hajj Malik Williams threw a costly interception in the first game and the rebels missed a long field goal. Either one goes the opposite way, and they keep that game within this number. This will be a hard-fought game, and I think the pressure on Boise keeps this one close till the end. In a game UNLV can win outright, take the points and enjoy this banger on a Friday night. UNLV +4!
ACC Championship
Charlotte, North Carolina
This year we see a Conference Playoff Schedule that truly shows the absurdity of the new College Football Landscape. Incredibly, if Army, Arizona State, Texas, Oregon and SMU all win their playoff games, we will have five champions that did not even play in that conference last year! So much for continuity and the sanctity of tradition. Couple that with the reduction in importance of these championships, since the new supersized conferences preclude some teams from ever playing each other for three years and you have yet again a system that is anything but egalitarian. No, the new 12 team playoff is an improvement on the Polls only, BCS fiasco and ridiculously inadequate four team playoff iterations, but it is still a half-boiled fiasco based on a rigged ball game that adheres to good old Jim Crow values when it comes to fairness. But for now, let us look at the new 12 team, SEC-BIG 10 Invitational Tournament and see who might spoil their incestuous, corrupt monstrosity.
When the powers-that-be behind the SMU move from the AAC to the ACC last year assessed the situation, they switched conferences with the knowledge that their very rich benefactors and alumnus could pony up big bucks to compete in the new, roided-up college athletics universe. At first the ACC did not want SMU to horn in on a cut of their billion-dollar TV package, so they were going to vote no; but then SMU announced they did not need or want any of that television money and they were subsequently admitted. Then SMU announced days after the ACC official announcement of their joining that they had raised over 100 million dollars in less than a week. This shows us that big oil alum were now free to completely change the fortunes of a private school football team with a big vault of cash for transfer portal & name-likeness-image payouts. SMU has come a long way since the 1987 Death Penalty was imposed on it by jealous bigger schools like Texas and Oklahoma when they cried to the NCAA that the Mustangs were cheaters and now out-recruiting them. Boo-hoo!
Although this ACC Championship Game is supposed to be at a neutral site it is in Charlotte, North Carolina), obviously Clemson will have more fans, because they are only 130 miles away. The bias of the corrupt committee and their favoritism for good old boy blue chip programs like Alabama (going to the playoff with three losses and a recent blowout at the hands of a feeble Oklahoma team not withstanding) plays into our hands. SMU know that having two losses means they could be out of the playoff, so they are not assuming they will be admitted into the dance, even with a close loss. They are out for blood.
This year SMU has been a far better and more consistent team than Clemson. Their only loss was an early season 18-15 loss to BYU. Brigham Young was a surprise this year, but they are tough, disciplined and were highly ranked early in the year. Clemson on the other hand was soft, unimpressive and was hammered by good teams, losing easily to Georgia and Louisville. Two weeks ago, in a great Southern tradition, Clemson scheduled a cupcake below Division 1 to warm up for their rivalry game against South Carolina. They played The Citadel and won fairly easily, but somehow gave up 300 yards rushing to a 1-AA team. By the way, the cupcake did not help, Clemson lost their rivalry game at home to South Carolina (who were passed over yet again for Alabama in this stupid playoff popularity contest despite being the hottest team in the SEC, riding a six-game winning streak to end the season).
SMU has balance, toughness and motivation to win this game thanks to good coaching and the deep pockets that transformed this team overnight. If this was a fair assessment spread of a neutral site game that was not a playoff, the Mustangs would be a six- or seven-point favorite. Head coach Rhett Butler Ashlee is an offensive guru, and these Mustangs are going to run, pass & crush Dabo Sweeney and his Clemson Tigers.
We will back the Mustangs at less than a field goal; we will side with the alma mater of: Indianapolis Colts owner James Irsay, Laura Bush, Eric Dickerson and the doctor who first identified Gulf War Syndrome, Doctor Robert Haley, and oh yes, over a dozen billionaires (mostly oil related).
SMU! Hail to the Red, White and Blue, We are the Mustangs from SMU, Give a cheer, Show your might! Get the victory in sight!
Bob: Arizona -2.5 over Seattle
These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago in Seattle in the rain. The Seahawks came away with a 16-6 victory. Both defenses dominated the performance. I see a different game this week in Arizona. The Cardinals are coming off a tough loss in Minnesota against a good Vikings team. Seattle is coming off a win against a bad Jets team. The Jets probably should have won the game. I think you're getting value because of the previous Seattle win and the fact that Seattle is coming off a win and the Cardinals a loss. Fact is the Cardinals defense is much better than I expected this year. The last four games they have held opponents to around 250 yards of offense and only 14 points. I like the Cardinals offense more with Murray, Connor, McBride and Harrison Jr. Arizona will get the win at home, and I like that I have to lay less than a field goal.
Comments