Stone Cold Locks Week 14 + Army/Navy

Stone Cold Locks

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 43-45-1

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record 52-52-4

2019 Record 62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 357-277-12=56%

Mr. Over/Under: Dallas -3 over Philadelphia

Although we give you our picks on Thursday, since it’s December, come Saturday you want to check the weather for outdoor games the rest of the year. For example, as of this writing, Baltimore has a 90% chance of rain on Sunday and 3 dome teams will be playing outdoor games. Two important NFL games dominate this week’s schedule. The Buffalo at the Kansas City.and Philly at Dallas. Unfortunately for the Bills, it seems they only get to play the Chiefs in KC every year, including the playoffs. But the Eagles and Cowboys, being in the same division, get to face each other on their home turf each year. The Eagles beat the Cowboys 28-23 earlier this year in Philly. But since then the Eagles defense has been disappointing, giving up 42-points to the 49ers last week and 34 to the Bills the week before. Dallas is averaging 32.3 points a game, the best in the league. As of now the spread on this game is Dallas -3.5. You know I hate that half-point, so tease the half-point and take the Cowboys -3.

Man in Stripes: Houston/Jets first half under 17.5

This total has been on the move. I still think there is value here. Weather issupposed to make this a brutal game. Rain and wind. Look for Houston to play close to the vest early. This is the first bad weather game for explosive Houston offense. As for the Jets offense, well, enough said. They go back to Zach Wilson this week; a drunk Joe Namath might be a better option. Don’t look for many points in this one but we will avoid the backdoor action late. We went under in the rain last week, lets do it again this week on what might be the lowest scoring weekend in 40 years in the NFL.

A few others:

Car +6 Saints are banged up, we run with new coach theory one more week.

Det-Chi Over 43 decent weather and number too low.

Mono: Colts-Bengals Over 43.5

Jake Browning turned back the clock Monday night with a vintage performance reminiscent of his time with Washington. Even though Burrow is out, this team is still loaded at their skill positions. Bengals are still very much in the playoff hunt. Bengals can still score and they have a hard time stopping anyone. Go to the other side and the Colts team is hot winning their last four. They’re averaging 24 points in those games and coach Shane Steichen is a serious candidate for coach of the year. This is a game I think the Colts win, but I got caught up in a road dog in a similar spot last year. Instead of backing them to essentially win with a 1.5 spread, I like both teams to score 20+ and easily beat the number.

Brutal: Army -3 over Navy

Army has won five of the last seven. It seems not long ago that Navy never lost this game. Many might like the under of 27.5 but I think Army is a better play. Army is still the better team and they come in hot winning three straight. Army can win the commander in chief trophy. Army beat Air Force 23-3, while Navy lost to the Falcons 17-6. This game is in Boston this year so the crowd will be use to low scoring games having seen the Patriots play all year. This game might be hard to watch but I’ll take the better team in the Cadets.

Philly: Bengals -1.5 over Colts

The Bengals came in as a 10-point underdog to the Jaguars on Monday Night football, but did that phase them. Jake Browning ran the high-powered Bengals offense with some help from the ground game of Joe Mixon to secure the huge upset. The goal will be coming up in a short week against a good Colts team led by another back-up QB Gardner Minshew. The Colts, while putting up points have been winning through defense and special teams. I think the streak ends this week. Monday night was a huge momentum swing in the Cincinnati locker room to build some belief in Browning. I expect the Bengals to take care of an overachieving Colts team.

Bob: Seahawks +10.5 over San Francisco

This is might be crazy by going against the hottest team in the NFL, but this is a divisional match-up and giving up double digits seems like too much. San Francisco is coming off an emotional win over Philadelphia. They played a near perfect game. It’s tough in this league to play two perfect games in back to back weeks. The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss in Dallas. Seattle impressed me in that loss by hanging in their against one of the NFC’s best. This number feels like an over reaction to me. The Seahawks are a gritty team and it’s really hard to blow out a good divisional opponent twice in the same season. 49ers won 31-13 earlier this year. I think this one is a lot closer.