STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 15

STONE COLD LOCKS 

By Bob Gaughan

2024 record 47-24-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 443-327-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Minnesota -7 over Chicago

We’re at that time of year, in the NFL where outdoor games can be affected by the weather. That’s why it can be a little safer going with indoor games or games in warmer cities. I like the Commanders this week but hate that extra half point. As of now Washington is -7.5, I prefer that game on the money line. So, let’s head way up north and stay with an indoor game. Minnesota is tied with the second-best record in the NFC. A Detroit loss to the Bills on Sunday could be huge for the Vikings, as they take on a Bear’s team that’s trending in the wrong direction. The Bears have yet to win a game on the road this year and could be headed for a late season collapse. This is a prime-time Sunday night game, and I look for wide receiver Mr. Jefferson to shine against a disappointing Chicago defense. This could be a double-digit win. Take the Vikings minus a TD.

Man in Stripes: Steelers +11.5/ Bills +8.5 ( 6 point teaser)

Lost a tough one last week. Too many gaffs and red zone turnovers. First rough week for the crew!! We dust ourselves off and let's get some winners!!! Let's go with 2 of the top teams on the road getting more than 1 score. Yes, we are fading 2 teams, Eagles/ Lions that are a combined 23-3!!!!! What can go wrong!!

First the Steelers +11.5.  Really, I'd take Mike Tomlin on the road against the 85 Bears with the points. Russell Wilson is cooking, TJ Watt is hitting, and in Tomlin we trust, almost 70% ATS on the road as a dog. Eagles have been playing great, some controversy between Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown after their unimpressive win vs Carolina. This is a TD game either way.

Bills +8.5, what can JA17 do for an encore???? He is AND WILL BE the MVP. Top 2 teams in scoring vs one defense that is really banged up in the Lions, and one that got torched last week vs the Rams. Both offenses have a lot of weapons; this should be a repeat of both teams last games. Lions 34-31 over the Packers, and Bills losing 44-42 at the Rams. Tough going against the wagon that are the Detroit Lions, however, in the last 53 regular season games, the Bills have lost by more than 1 score a grand total of 1 TIME!!!!! So as long as Sean McDermott doesn't have 9 players, 12 players on the field at once. Have another 13 second meltdown we should be good for the Bills to keep it within the number.

Some early holiday gift cards:

Shakir over 55 5 yards rec, in dome/ Lions secondary banged up

Pitt +5.5- SEE ABOVE!!

Navy +6.5, it's Army/ Navy it's close!!!!

Bills/ Lions over 54.. SEE ABOVE 

Good luck!!

Mono: COLTS +4 OVER DENVER

Going with the Colts +4 in Denver this weekend. This Broncos team has surprised many this year and find themselves in a wild card spot at the moment. If it weren’t for a blocked FG against the Chiefs, they’d be winners of 4 straight and comfortably in the 1st spot. Bo Nix has been great as a rookie and this defense has been stout. They laid a dud in their last game against Jameis in terms of yards allowed and if it weren’t for a couple of pick 6s, Bo would’ve needed to lead a game winning drive. This pick is unpopular given the comparison of who’s under center. Nix for the home team and Anthony Richardson for the visitors. Nix has been great, and Richardson has been serviceable. He’s led a couple of game winning drives in the past 3 weeks. Both teams are coming off a much-needed bye and look to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. The Colts can’t afford a loss here and I’m going against all metrics here backing this squad. The Colts cover the number in Denver.

Brutal: ARMY -6.5 over NAVY  125thEDITION

 It is a crying shame that ARMY is not in the College Playoff.  They won their first American Conference Title last week and were impressive, winning a playoff game at Michie Stadium for the first time in their illustrious history, waxing Tulane by three touchdowns.  With no chance to stay in the bigger playoff, the Black Knights played like that did not matter and they were yelling ....... Beat Navy! ...... before, during and after the contest.  We have been taking Army in the Army-Navy Game for nine years straight in Stone Cold Locks.  They have gone 7-2 against the spread and have beaten Navy outright 6 times to 3.  Make it 8-2 and 7-3.  Even though this is a dangerous rivalry game that will still probably go under the total, I think this Army team is special.  They might blow Navy out, which has not happened since, ...... oh probably 1905! ..... Army beat Navy 40-5 at the turn of the 20th Century, but since then Army has been blown out over a dozen times by Navy.  It has only been the last decade where Army has been the better play, but Navy crushed them in 2019 by 31-7.  Now Army did rebound the next year in 2020 at West Point with a 15-0 win, but that was a one score game till a late turnover touchdown.  Army has been salivating to put a blowout on the record and get closer to equalizing the all-time record, which has been narrowing in the last decade.  It now stands at 62-55-7 in favor of Navy.  This game might just replicate Operation Husky in World War Two, whose purpose ostensibly was to invade, infiltrate and annihilate the Axis powers in the Soft White Underbelly of Europe.  General Patton however was more interested in steamrolling his way in a race to Messina mainly to humiliate Field Marshall Bernard Montgomery of the British Army in a prima donna showdown that Patton won, but it probably expedited the entire process and drove the Germans from Sicily

  Army is a juggernaut this year.  QB Bryson Daily has run for over 1,500 yards himself, piloting the Army ground attack that features more game breaking running backs than previous years.  Army has one loss, a humiliating comeuppance in Yankee Stadium to Notre Dame in bad weather at night with every Roman Catholic in the Tri-State area filling the stands and cheering on the Fighting Irish.  It is ridiculous that this single loss has eliminated them from the playoff (Is this a worse loss than the Notre Dame choke-job at home to Northern Illinois.......)  Navy started the year fast and was even passing the ball earning a top 25 ranking.  They started the year with six wins but have lost 3 of their last 5 games.  Another factor is that we know Army will not be looking ahead to their Bowl game with a head coachless Marshall team.  They also will not have the usual Transfer Portal defections and players sitting out to preserve their draft status and health before the season has even ended.  After Army has destroyed Navy, they will focus on the Thundering Herd and will give a great accounting of themselves, but you know right now, this week they are in rivalry mode.  This is the largest spread in decades in favor of Army, but we are unafraid.  Yes, we know the game is almost a typical home game for Navy, being played at the Washington Commanders home stadium in Landover, Maryland.  We are unbowed.  Into the breech!  Like Sgt. York!  Audie Murphy!  We will give the 6.5 and lay it with the alma mater of George S. Patton, Robert E. Lee, Ulysses S. Grant & Edgar Allan Poe. Go Black Knights

  P.S.  Eventually this new playoff will keep evolving and probably be more inclusive (Unless the Southeastern Conference-Big Ten Cartel swallows the entire thing and excludes everybody else).  My philosophy is simple:  You can have all the polls, rankings, wild cards, expert committees, lack of a living, breathing commissioner to oversee this orgiastic, capitalist monstrosity, all the disgusting dark money etc., ...... you can have them all contribute to the selection process.  However, you cannot have a legitimate playoff unless every Conference Champion from every FBS Division One Conference is in the playoff till they lose their next game.  This includes the derogatory labeled Group of Five as some sort of maligned league of schools that should just be glad for the table scraps the Power Four throws them from the buffet.  Boise State is a great story with a generational running back, who deserves to be in the public spotlight and creates headlines & viral interest, especially in their often overlooked part of the country.  They deservedly have advanced and would have rightfully so even if they had lost to UNLV in the Mountain West Championship.  Army is just as great a story, even an international story in nature, and they should have to lose on the field-of-play to be eliminated.  (We even have a solution so as not to take away too many of the money grubbing final ranking positions from the Patriarch Power Four:  The Group of Five Conference winners would play each other in the next two weeks without any break, and bring only one or two teams to the final 12, 14, 16, however many team playoff this thing ends up being (we all know it is going to expand no matter what).  If one or two Group of Five teams are ranked highly, they would bypass this elimination round like Boise State has with a Bye week this year.

  Inclusivity would only help.  Look at all the great football played this year because there is more on the line.  Becoming a more intense version of the NCAAM Basketball Tournament is the path to growing the sport and making even more money, but it would have to be more evenly shared.  Sadly, I think the Cartel would rather hoard a smaller jackpot than share a larger and always growing one.  They have never had any lasting vision except the fastest way to make the most money, traditions be damned.  Unless a central authority emerges, who can control the greed, believe me they will screw it up worse than it is now

Bob: MIAMI/HOUSTON OVER 46.5

I love the firepower that both offenses possess in this one. I thought the O/U would be closer to 50. Houston and Miami both need this game.  The Dolphins hang on to their slim chances to make the playoffs and the Texans are currently in the lead in the AFC South.  The Texans are coming off the bye and should be ready to roll with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins leading the way.  The Dolphins have Hill and Waddle on the injury report, but both are expected to play.  We all know Tua plays better in perfect conditions. Fortunately, NRG stadium has a retractable dome, so I’m not worried about the 40 percent chance of rain in the Houston area Sunday. Take away the cold weather Green Bay game and Miami has scored over 30 points in their last three good weather games. The Dolphins defense just gave up Aaron Rodgers first 300-yard passing game in three years last week. So, in spite of CJ Stroud’s regression this year he should still be able to move the ball. Let’s look for a shootout

in the long star state where both teams need a win and have the firepower to light up the scoreboard.