Stone Cold Locks Week 15, First Bowl Games

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 48-46-1

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 362-278-12=56%

Mr. Over/Under: Browns -3 over Bears

If you’re looking at the Sunday NFL games, you’d better look at the weather forecasts. Starting today (Thursday) Miami is calling for 3-days of rain and strong winds. Jacksonville has a coastal flood advisory, and  Atlanta (a dome team) will be in Charlotte, which has a 100% chance of rain on Sunday. I like the Falcons to cover, as the Panthers have only covered twice this year, but that O/U of 35 could be the way to go.. However I’ll still wait a couple days and see how that storm is doing before I take the under. So let’s go with the team that has the top ranked total defense, Cleveland. Seems Mr. Flacco still has a few tricks up his sleeve. Yes the Bears won a division game at home last week, but the Browns are tough against the pass and have a much better defense than Detroit.  Cleveland could also see some rain on Sunday, but with a 6-1 record at home, I expect the Browns to cover the 3-points.

Man in Stripes: Buffalo -1.5 over Dallas

Sometimes handicapping games comes down to situational handicapping.I feel this fits the bill. Almost feels like an unranked college team as the favorite over a ranked team. Here comes the high-flying Dallas Cowboys into Orchard Park, 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS on a 5 game winning streak. Prescott, Lamb, Parsons and all of the stars you could want. They are trying to win the NFC East and maybe get the number one seed overall. The Bills are 7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS and fighting for their playoff lives. The Bills are fighting defensive injuries and Super Bowl hype is hanging by a thread. However with the Herbert less Chargers and brutal Patriots on deck the season is not lost!!! IF THEY WIN!!!!! There’s so much going against the team off the field, but they are scary. Josh Allen has been doing his best Superman impersonation. LOVE THIS SPOT FOR THE BILLS!!!!!! Rich Stadium magic late Sunday night with your’s truly in attendance. In Josh we Trust!!! Remember, no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills!!!!

Mono: Rams -6.5 over Washington

It’s do or die for this Rams team. The NFC playoff race is still wide open for the last two spots. This game they can’t drop and you have to feel that Stafford and McVay know that. The Commanders team went full sell mode at the deadline and have been uninspired since. They’re coming off the bye, but what are they playing for? Ron Rivera is a lock to walk away at the end of the year. Their offense has hung in some games this year but Sam Howell has been sacked 58 times this year. I expect the Rams defensive front led by Aaron Donald to feast. Donald and Stafford are on their last leg here in LA and this could be very well be the last season both are on the team. Desperation mode sets in for a Rams team that hung 31 on the Ravens staunch defense last week. Rams win and cover 31-10.

Brutal:  New Mexico State -3 over Fresno St

The best coaching job that no one in college football is talking about is the job Jerry Kill has done at New Mexico State. This program was down in the dumps before he took it over.  Now he has the Aggies in back-to-back bowl games for the first time since Only the Lonely was on the charts. The game is being played in New Mexico so the home crowd will be clearly on the Aggies side. Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford is dealing with health issues so he won’t be coaching the game.  Fresno is not playing their best ball coming in having lost three straight. Fresno is known for getting up for the giant killer games, just don’t see them as motivated as New Mexico State in this one.

Philly: Titans -3 over Houston

Texans are in the thick of the AFC playoff race with rookie QB CJ Stroud at the helm. Problem is, they are coming off a loss where they let the brutal Jets offense pick them apart. Stroud is in concussion protocol and he has lost he top weapons the last two weeks. Titans on the other hand are coming off a huge win. While they might be out of the playoff hunt, momentum behind rookie QB Will Levis is vital. I’m going to back the Titans to keep it rolling.

Bob: Browns-Bears Under 38.5

I really like how these two defenses in this match-up.  The Browns defense at home has been the best in the league. Myles Garrett is the defensive player of the year in my book. The last time he faced Justin Fields he recorded four and a half sacks.  Chicago is playing better overall having won three of four.  The Bears defense has come alive.  The Bears have given up only 23 points combined the last two weeks. The Bears run defense has turned out to be one of the best-run defenses in football. The weather could be a factor as well so lets take the under and root for punts.