STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 17

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2024 record 50-31-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 446-334-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Detroit -4 over San Francisco

If only I had known that Jalen Hurt was going to get hurt last week. It “Hurts” to lose a bet because your QB got injured. Hope you enjoyed a White Christmas, as we try to make more green with another Monday Night Football pick. With Philly’s loss last week, Detroit is back in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed in the NFC. This game with San Fran, is a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship game. These two teams may have the most players on injured reserve combined. But the 49ers look like they’re running out of gas, while the Lions still have a potent offense. San Fran has scored just 23-points in their last two games. Five of their last six loses have come by at least six-points. Detroit needs this game and will get it. Take the Lions -4. See you next year, which is next week really.

Man in Stripes: Navy +3 over Oklahoma

Belated Merry Christmas to all!! Very tough week to pick from. Who's running for the bus in the NFL, and who's running to the transfer portal in the bowls? We are going to a nooner in Ft. Worth on Friday, (11am local) for the Armed Forces Bowl. It's a great spot for Navy. They are coming off a huge win as a 7 pt dog vs. Army. Looking to cap a great year w win #10!! Blake Horvath, has quietly had a great year at QB. What a stud!! Had a great game vs Army, 4th in country with QB rushing yards and 15 TDs!! The main difference here, is Navy has 1 player heading to the portal. While Oklahoma has 23!!!!! Yes, 23 heading to the NFL early!!! Starting QB, WRS, TE, DL, you name it, they aren't playing!! OU snuck into this bowl at 6-6, they had their big win vs. Bama to become Bowl eligible. I feel the bus is warming up before the National Anthem. Throw in going against Navy's Triple Option, with 4th and 5th stringers. Also, Navy HC, Brian Newberry, grew up down the road from Norman. All the intangibles all the incentive is with Midshipmen!! Anchors Aweigh!!!!! Sprinkle some on the ML (+125) if you want as well. Buy another bottle of champagne for 2025. Good luck, enjoy the great football this weekend, Happy New Year to everyone!!!

Mono: Carolina +8 over Tampa Bay

Going with the Panthers +8 @ Tampa Bay. The Bucs fumbled their playoff hopes last week with a loss at Dallas. Their defense continues to be a liability and gave up almost 300 passing yards to Cooper Rush. They’re back at home against a divisional foe, and we all know points are a premium in these matchups. Bryce Young and the Panthers have gotten on track in the last month, finally breaking through and getting a win last week in OT, crushing the Cardinals playoff hopes. Young and Canales have finally gotten things going and with a Hubbard in the backfield they’ve shown some real growth. The playoffs are obviously out of the picture, but they have an opportunity to play spoiler for the 2nd straight week. These teams squared off in Charlotte a few weeks ago and Young went toe to toe with Baker and lost by 3 in OT. Since, the panthers have kept the momentum going being competitive and losing 1 score games other than a stinker against Dallas. TB can’t stop anyone, and Bryce is coming off a strong showing against the Cardinals. I expect this one to go a lot like their first matchup with Carolina keeping it within the 8-point spread. Take the points in this divisional showdown and let’s get back on the winning train. Panthers +8

Brutal:  Oklahoma Sooners vs. Navy Midshipmen (+3) 

 Lockheed Martin Armed Services bowl, DOUBLE DOWN

   This game every year in Forth Worth is also a major sales convention junket for the entire defense industry.  There will be literally thousands of executives, lobbyists, government officials and fans attending the festivities this week in Fort Worth.  Most of these people will be cheering for the team representing the armed services.  This year that will be Navy!  Fresh off their win over Army in the Army-Navy Game, the Midshipmen come into this game motivated, prepared, hungry, unaffected by transfer portal defections and getting points.  The same cannot be said for Oklahoma; their starting QB Jackson Arnold has hit the portal and he will not play.  Sixteen other starting Sooners have followed him into the Star Trek Transporter Portal.  Now, in the college football universe of today, we do not know if some of them will play, because this unspoken ambiguity as to participation has become a stratagem to obfuscate the roster status for both the opposition and the bettors, much like the mysterious lower body injuries that masque the nature of injured players in professional sports.  No matter, having so many players sitting on the fence after legally leaving the team is a distraction for preparation.  We are betting that most of them will not want to play against the option.  It is hard to imagine an agent, mentor, parent or anybody else telling any defensive player that lining up against the option will enhance their NFL draft status or NIL booty haul. 

  Back in 2018, the University of Houston was a double-digit favorite over Army in this Bowl.  However, this was not a sexy matchup, and a lot of Cougars decided that they did not want to risk injury playing against the dreaded option or endanger their draft ranking with a bad performance.  Most notably of these was All American DT and current Buffalo Bill Ed Oliver who withdrew from this game and as a result many of his teammates joined the exodus.  As a result, The Army of West Point had their biggest Bowl margin of victory ever, steamrolling Houston by an embarrassing score of 70-14!   

  These two teams have only played each other once before.  Back in 1965, Navy beat Oklahoma 10-0 and the Sooners have never scheduled them again!  Oklahoma had one big win this year, essentially knocking Alabama out of the playoff by beating the Crimson Tide decisively, 24-3.  

  It is always hard to face the option:  Preparation is not easy, chop-blocking sucks and a lot of your teammates jumping ship (excuse the horrible pun) is a recipe for dismal motivation and indifferent play. 

  The service academies have won 5 of the last 7 games in this Bowl.  In the two they did not win, they did not participate, so they have essentially won five in a row.  Navy is hyped, healthy, prepared, disciplined and defection free.  This could be a wipeout. 

  We are taking the USS Missouri over the Conestoga Wagon; we are taking the legacy of Paul Johnson, George Welsh & Swede Larson over Bob Stoops, Gomer Jones & Barry Switzer; we are backing the alma mater of Roger Staubach, Ross Perot, Robert A. Heinlein & 100-year-old former President Jimmy Carter!  

 Navy (+3)   Roll out the TNT!  Anchors Aweigh!  Sail on to Victory!  And Sink their Bones to Davy Jones! Hooray!  

Bob: Cincinnati -3.5 over Denver

Let’s lean into the stinky line in this one. Both, team needs this one, but Cincinnati needs it much more. Denver can still make the playoffs with a win in their last game. Denver plays KC in their last game and the Chiefs might sit everyone having wrapped up the number one seed.  The Denver pass defense has been suspect the last few weeks. Justin Herbert threw for 284 yards and 2 TD’s; Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards and 4 TD’s, and the Raiders combined for over 300 yards passing. Now in comes Joe Burrow who leads the NFL with 4,229 passing yards and 39 TD’s. Burrow has thrown for at least 3 touchdowns in each of the last seven weeks. Bo Nix has had a great rookie season,

but he’s been up and down recently. I think Vegas has it right here. Let’s take the home team that needs it more.