STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 17

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 42-38

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 505-385-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7 point Teaser Rams -.5 and San Francisco +4



Three games in the NFL on Christmas Day. Who knew the NFL was that disparate for broadcast money? Of the six teams playing on Christmas, only one has qualified for the playoffs. I doubt of Santa even cares about these games. Fortunately some of the remaining 13-games should be exciting to watch. One of them might be Buffalo/Philadelphia. Barkley deserved the MVP award last year, which ended up being more of a popularity contest. When Josh Allen took that 18-yard sack a couple weeks ago, he showed after 8-years he still haven’t learned when to throw the call away.  Another interesting game should be Texans/Chargers. The Texans defense allowed a poor Raiders team 20-points, only winning by 2 when they were favored by 14 at home.

I find it disappointing that three, maybe four of the top QBs in the NFL will not be in the playoffs this year. However, I find it very interesting that QBs like Lawrence, Williams, Darnold and Rogers probably will be. And what about Brock Purdey, who was the very last player drafted in 2022. Speaking of Purdy, the 49ers face a surprising Bears team this weekend, with first year head coach Ben Johnson. The 49ers are in the hunt, along with Seattle and the Rams for their division lead. At this point in the season, I like to look at teams that have something to play for. Two of those teams are the Rams and 49ers. I think they’ll both win, but will they cover? This week I’ll go with two quality teams, that need to win, but let’s give ourselves a little cushion. Take San Francisco +4 and the L.A. Rams minus a half-point, on a 7-point teaser parley. Hope you had a Merry Christmas and see you next year.  (Just a week away)

Man in Stripes: Jags -6.5 @ Colts

Jags have been on fire 6-0 L6 ATS winning by an average of 17 points. They may be the best team in the AFC that nobody is saying anything about..!!!!Trevor Lawrence  has 12 td passes and 0 picks last 4 games..Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas, team really is loaded.. Rushing D is top 5.. As for the Colts, STICK A FORK IN THEM!!! 5 losses in a row, awful performance , especially on defense at home on MNF at home vs SF..Phillip Rivers, who I personally love, has tried to do as much as he can.. They are practically eliminated,  so I see the white flag coming out, not sure Rivers will even play on Sunday.. This one ugly early, giving less than a TD, and the Jags have the extra rest here as well.. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone , including Mike Tomlin, who for the 10th straight  yeaR has won me money, betting  over 8.5 wins.. I will keep betting it blindly until I lose!!

MONO: Steelers -3 over Cleveland

If I didn’t learn my lesson last week with a road favorite, we certainly will this week. Pittsburgh travels to Cleveland with a division title on the line. A win and they’re locked in. The Steelers will be without DK but Tj Watt should be good to go and if you learned anything from the bills game last week, this Browns O line is terrible. Rodgers will game manage behind a strong run game and the defense will put Shedeur in some long down situations. The Steelers take care of business on the road and secure their playoff spot. Take the Steelers -3. Merry Christmas to all 

Brutal:  Seattle Seahawks @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (+7.5) 

 The Seattle Seahawks are named after the Osprey, a taxonomically unique species of raptor that preys on fish.  Osprey are the largest bird of prey who exclusively dine on freshwater fish and yet have ironically been called seahawks for centuries.  The other bird nicknamed the seahawk is the real seahawk. Steller's Sea Eagle is a monster!  The king of the ocean is the largest and most fearsome predator attacking from the air in the world.  Steller's Sea Eagle is a massive bird that can weigh up to 25 pounds with a wingspan of 8.5 feet ( It is roughly twice as large as the average American Bald Eagle ).  This eagle still lives along the northern Pacific coast of Japan, Russia and the Aleutians.  Due to human indifference, there are less than 5,000 still alive.  Spread over thousands of miles, the lack of population density in their range has this magnificent animal flirting with irreversible extinction every day.  

  For most of this season, the Seattle Seahawks have performed like Steller's Sea Eagles, preying on the rest of the NFL in amassing a 12 & 3 record.  They are looking to clinch the NFC West and possibly the NFC title.  Seattle has looked great on both sides of the ball, probably the most balanced squad in the NFL.  Seattle is on a 5 game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 10.  Incredibly, in their three losses, they have collectively lost by 9 total points, so nobody blows them out.  Last week they beat their archrival Rams by one point in an entertaining game that has put them in the driver's seat to clinch everything heading into the playoffs. 

  As soon as a few games into his career last year, it looked like Heisman winner Bryce Young was going to be a major bust at QB for Carolina.  The #1 overall pick looked too small, too slow, too weak in the arm, and too much the product of a successful program at Alabama assuming that even when he was not surrounded by top level talent, that his experience and leadership would make him a star in the professional ranks.  Instead, Bryce looked like Bambi out there, the wolves, collapsing his pocket and running him down at will when he scrambled.  He was on the ground a lot, fumbling, writhing in agony on the field, throwing weak-sauce interceptions that made everybody groan that the Panthers could have drafted a half dozen other quarterbacks who were all looking better than Bryce Young early in their career.  Then, slowly as this year progressed, much like Jacksonville with their own #1 overall pick of dubious success, Trevor Lawrence, people where finding it very hard to believe that Carolina could be poised to win their division and get into the playoffs for the first time in forever.

  A couple of weeks ago, the Seahawks looked shaky in a 2 point home win over a depleted Colts' side; in last week's pivotal 1 point victory over the Rams in Seattle, the defense really had no answers for QB Matt Stafford and gave up a ton of yardage and points to the Rams.  QB Sam Darnold has also played shakily in these victories and showed signs of succumbing to the same enveloping existential mental crisis that characterized his final few games in Minnesota last year.  When Sam starts to play with uncertainty, it reminds everyone including himself of his first years in the league as a near to total bust with the Jets, a stopgap starter and backup with these very Panthers, then even more obscurity on the bench of the 49ers.  As a result of this history, the Vikings let him go to sign his big contract with Seattle last spring.  This subsequently had them overrate and fall in love with first round draft pick, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.  I never felt he was all that great, and it looks like the injury prone Wolverine is going to start his professional career in the same lowly manner as a lot of recent USC Trojan QB picks like Matt Leinart, Matt Barkley, Mark Sanchez and ...... gulp, ...... Sam Darnold.  

  Well Carolina QB Bryce Young is the son of two psychologists and it shows.  People describe him as incredibly level headed and unflappable notwithstanding his trials and tribulations.  Despite his small stature, seemingly limited athletic ability, and terrible start to his NFL career till half way through this, his second season, Bryce appears to be the mentally tougher quarterback.  On Sunday, we do not expect Sam Darnold to completely fall apart mentally in public and have a nervous breakdown like boxer Oliver McCall in his second fight with Lennox Lewis or televangelist preacher Jim Bakker when he was arrested in his office for 24 counts of theft, conspiracy, mail and wire fraud as well as the coverup of a massive sexual scandal while fleecing his parishioners for years.  However, we think there is a good chance that Sam Darnold is going to yield to the "yips" in this game and find a way to come up short.  Sam has had nightmares this festive season, he has been visited by all of those "Ghosts of USC Trojan Quarterbacks Past."  In recent weeks, the visible weight of that stress has shown up on the field in his play, despite winning. 

  Meanwhile, Bryce Young is in "I'm Okay, You're Okay" mode.  As unlikely as it might have seemed just a few weeks ago, Young is the better bet at QB here.  The Carolina defense has been underrated all year and the recent Pro Bowl snubs to two of their best defenders has just added fuel to the fire.  Another factor is that Seattle just has to be looking ahead a little bit to next week's showdown for all the marbles in San Francisco, making the result of this game irrelevant unless San Fran chokes it away to the Bears on Sunday night.  

  We are getting 7.5 points at home, where the Panthers have recently beaten both the Rams and the Buccaneers.  Carolina is leading their division and can win the NFC South with two wins.  Seattle is also doing the west coast team playing on the east coast at 1:00 pm paradigm that has been proven to disrupt football playing as well as your biorhythms.  

  We like Bambi and the Panthers to cover and maybe beat Shaky Sam and The Sea Eagles. 

  Merry Christmas, Feliz Navidad, Frohe Weihnacten and hope for Peace and Common Sense across the planet. 

Bob: Vanderbilt -4 over Iowa December 31st

This is the last game for Diego Pavia and all of the heights he has brought to the Vanderbilt program.  This is the first time in program history where Vanderbilt has won 10 games and Pavia finished second in the Heisman. No other Vanderbilt player had ever finished in the top 10.  This will come down to the Vanderbilt offense against a good Iowa defense. It’s strength on strength.  I’m surprised that Vanderbilt was able to keep their coach Clark Lea. I’m counting on Pavia to come up with some big plays in his final game. Vanderbilt’s only losses this year were to Texas and Alabama.  They have quality wins over Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Utah State.  Iowa on the other hand has lost four games. They’ve been close but have lost to all of the best opponents on their schedule. Vanderbilt should be motivated to send Pavia out on a winning note so let’s take them in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve.