Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 54-32-1
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 450-335-15=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: JARED GOFF OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS
Happy New Year! As I’ve stated for years, weeks 1 & 18 are the most dangerous betting weeks in the NFL. For the first time this year, 4-games have double-digit spreads, with the Browns/Ravens game at 18, the largest spread of the year. Speaking of spreads, did you bet against Tennessee this year? They are 2-14 against the spread (ATS). While the Chiefs have won 15-games, they’re only 7-8-1 ATS. And who would have thought Washington and Minnesota would be in the playoffs?
This week some teams MUST win to make the playoffs, while others shall we say, don’t give a damn. But let’s not forget, even second and third stringers want to play hard and look good for a better contract next year. So, do I go with Baltimore, who beat the Browns earlier this year by 25? Or how about Cincy, whose been averaging 31.2-points a game since week 12? What about the Bucs, who scored 48 last week and previously beat the Saints by 24? I think the Ravens will cover, and Cincy will win, and the Bucs will make the playoffs, but because week 18 can be so crazy, for the first time this year, I’m going with a prop bet. The O/U for the Vikings/Lions game is 56.5. I too expect a lot of scoring, which means a lot of passing. Jared Goff’s passing yards is at 274.5. Take the over and start the New Year with a bang.
Man in Stripes: Cincy-1.5 @ Pittsburgh
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!! LET'S TRY TO START OFF NEW YEAR IN THE GREEN!!! Very difficult week!! Week 18, lots of teams w little/ no motivation, how long do starters play, are we running for the bus, is the team chant .1,2,3, Cancun. Not much on the college board. We will look at a game where motivation is huge most likely on one side of the ball. JUST AS LONG as the Ravens (-18.5) can beat the hapless Browns, earlier on Saturday. The Steelers will be locked into the 5th seed on the AFC. And their motivation is none. I do worry about Mike Tomlin a bit; they have lost 3 in a row. But if this game gets away from them early, I think he waves the white flag, they just played 3 games in 12 days and will most likely have to get ready to go to Houston in wildcard round. On the other side is a team NOBODY wants to play right now, the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrows is having a HOF year, with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins running wild, Cincy with a win on Saturday and a Denver and Miami loss on Sunday would sneak into the playoffs. (Bills Mafia would be very worried.) Cincy is hot and motivated, Steelers slumping and most likely will have nothing to play for. And all I need practically is for the Bengals just to win. Jump on this line before the Ravens get way up, if that happens this line will go over the key number of 3. Good luck, and enjoy the games!!!
Mono: BENGALS-STEELERS OVER 48.5 POINTS
Goin with over 48.5 in the Bengals - Steelers game on Saturday night. By this point, we all know what’s at stake. A win for the Bengals and some help and they may find themselves in Orchard Park next weekend… over Cincy’s last 5, they’ve averaged just over 31 points per game which includes a 44-38 loss to these Steelers on December 1st. Pittsburgh hasn’t been the same since, losers of 3 straight. They haven’t been able to score much in these games facing some of the league's best units late in the season. They have what some would call a “get right” spot against this Bengals D which has been diced up this season. The extended break for Pittsburgh sees Joey Porter Jr and potentially Donte Jackson returning on the edges, but Joe Burrow and his receivers have torn up anyone that’s lined up across from them. I don’t think we’ll see 82 points scored like the last time these teams played each other, but we only need a little more than half to hit this number. The Bengals should flirt with 27+ here and Pittsburgh will be able to keep up. Picking a side in this one is tough, so let’s take the over in this Saturday night prime time slot. Over 48.5.
Brutal: FCS - (1AA) Championship, Frisco, Texas
NORTH DAKOTA STATE (+3.5) vs. MONTANA STATE
For years the Bison of North Dakota State owned this championship. In fact, they have won 9 of the last 13 finals of this true playoff championship. Three years ago, the Montana State Bobcats lost to the Bison in this game by a humiliating score of 38-10. Since then, the Bobcats, the University staff, students, fans & alum have been talking about revenge! Well, here it is. The Bobcats have had a magical undefeated season, going 15 and 0, dominating the Big Sky Conference and winning by a lot of blowouts; they are on a mission to win their first FCS Championship. North Dakota won the Missouri Valley with a 13-2 record. Their only losses were (barely) to a stacked Colorado by 5 points in Boulder and another close road loss in Vermillion to a robust South Dakota Coyote squad by a score of 29-28 in the last game of the year. In conference they tied South Dakota and South Dakota State with 7-1 MVC records for first overall. The reason we mention this is to point out that the MVC is far more competitive, far more physical and far tougher overall than the Big Sky Conference; a lot of the blowout wins by SD have to be downgraded because of the far weaker competition.
North Dakota State has not won this title themselves for 3 years, which is an eternity from their purview. They have won their two-playoff games over Abilene Christian and Mercer by huge margins; they are peaking at the right time. Montana State is a great story, going undefeated, trying to win their first championship, the Cinderella revenge matchup with NDSU, the obsession of it all. They certainly deserve to be the favorite on this neutral site. However, the NDSU Bison have lost two road games by six total points this year and they are getting 3.5 points on a familiar field that they have played on 10 times in the last 13 years and won 9 times!!!!
It should be a big crowd and a great game as both teams travel well. Sometimes you have to back the horse who has run in the higher stak
es races. I think Montana State will succumb partly due to nerves, pressure and psychic exhaustion.
We are taking the alma mater of Carson Wenz, Trey Lance, nobody much else famous except for a multitude of Dakota area politicians mostly unknown to the rest of the world, but whose politics are somewhere to the right of Atilla the Hun.
Bob: Tampa Bay -13.5 over New Orleans
So hard to find games this week where any team needs to win. Here’s one where Tampa Bay needs to win to lock up the NFC South. The Saints are a mess the last couple of weeks. After getting shut out on Monday night they lose by 15 to a bad Raiders team. The Saints offense is in trouble in this game without Alvin Kamara. Tampa Bay defense has been very good this year allowing teams they played 59 yards below their average. That’s not good for a Saints team starting a back-up QB. Further incentives are incentives. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans have a chance with good games to hit some roster bonus incentives. Look for Tampa to try to put this one away by halftime.
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