Stone Cold Locks Week 18 +NCAA Finals

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 59-58-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 373-290-14=56%

Mr. Over/Under: New England -1.5 over Jets

I’ve always felt weeks 1 & 18 are the two hardest weeks to pick winners. All the stats from the previous 17-weeks go out the window when teams either rest their starters or have nothing to play for. Plus when teams like Arizona beat Philly, such as last week, when Philly was playing for their division championship, you kind of wonder what’s really going on? So this week I’m taking a game in which neither team has anything to play for, except maybe their coach. There’s been a ton of rumors about Bill Belichick the last few weeks. Will he be let go, leave, coach another team, or just go fishing off of Nantucket? I feel this will be his last game as the Patriot’s head coach and he’ll want to go out a winner. His defense is strong and the Jets offense is not. The Patriots are home and the fans should be loud. As of this writing however (Thursday) there could be a major snow storm in Foxboro on Sunday. If so, just take the under. However, for now, I’ll take the Pats -1.5 Bye Bill.

Man in Stripes: Tampa Bay/ Vegas ML parlay +135

Week 18 is always the hardest week to pick, teams have seeds locked up, they rest players and bad teams run for the bus.  It’s tough to read motivation and desire.  Tampa’s situation is simply beat the 2-14 Panthers and they host a playoff game. Carolina will have the worst record in the league. The problem is they traded the pick to the Bears so they could draft Bryce Young.  Not good!!! Tampa rolls!!!

Vegas will do the same to Denver. The Broncos will start Jarret Stidham.  The Broncos have been a mess most of the year. They sit Russell Wilson, so he doesn’t get hurt and they can release him. Vegas loves their interim coach, Antonio Pierce, and have been playing hard the last several games for him. At home expect their motivation to be very high and the Broncos to check out quickly. Two motivated teams and we get a little plus money.

Some early 2024 gifts:

Steelers -4

Bills -3

Mono: Bears +3 over Green Bay

I’m buying into the Bears hype. I think Eberflus has his defense and Fields is playing to keep his job. Fields will probably be rewarded with Harrison Jr in next years draft. Love has been a breath of fresh air after struggling for stretches this season.  He was lights out last week and can get into the dance with a win.  But not so fast my friend. Fields and these Bears are playing for their careers. They’ve been hot and how better to stamp a lost season than knocking off the rival Packers. These are the same Packers that historically the can not beat. Fields stays hot and the Bears get the win 17-13.

Brutal:  Washington +4.5 over Michigan

I’m getting points with the better, QB, better WR’s and the best offensive line in college football. What’s not to like? Michigan hasn’t seen an offense like this all year.  Has any one noticed how the Big 10 has done in bowl season?  Great effort by Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa don’t you think.  Thanks for not showing up. The Washington defense will bend but not break.  The Michigan offense better not go into a funk like they did against Alabama for most of the second half.  Michael Pennix is a legit NFL prospect and he’s throwing to at least two NFL receivers.  The offensive line won the Joe Moore award for the best offensive line in the country. Washington has been the best team all year but being from the West Coast many people don’t see them. All year the Pac-12 was the best conference in football. It is fitting that they can win the National Championship in the last game in conference history.  What a shame!

Sunday college game:

Montana +13.5 over South Dakota St- Montana with 2 NFL prospects on roster

Philly: Houston -1.5 over Indianapolis

It’s time to put up or shut up in this game on Saturday. Playoffs are on the line as these two surprise teams meet in Indianapolis. Both coaches are in line to be finalist for coach of the year candidates. I like CJ Stroud to continue in his quest for rookie of the year. The loss of Tank Dell hurts the Texans but they still have Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Dalton Shultz to throw to. Those weapons should be enough to beat a Colts team that got lucky last week to beat the Raiders.  The Raiders had 10 more first downs then the Colts in defeat.  The Texans by the way had more yardage than the Colts back in Week 2 when they lost to Indy.  The Texans are the better team and they prove it with a road win.

Bob: Raiders -3 over Broncos

Week 18 is very tough when it comes to trying to figure out what teams that are out of it will play hard and what team might run for the bus. In the Raiders you have a team that has been playing hard since they’ve been out of it. The last three games they have blown out the Chargers, went into KC and won and lost by 3 to a Colts team that is still in the hunt.  Just a day ago Devante Adams came out and said he wants Antonio Pierce to remain head coach. The Raiders are playing hard for Pierce because they want him to stay on as their coach. Let’s compare the Broncos who asked Russell Wilson to waive his injury clause and benched him. How do you think that went in the locker room? The Broncos are playing their last game on the road in a locker room that could be a mess.  I smell a situation that could be run for the bus!

Let’s take the home team that we know is going to play hard and only lay a field goal.