STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 5

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 10-10

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 531-413-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7 Point Teaser- SF/SEA OVER 38.5 + Philly/JAX OVER 34.5

Here I am enjoying the Fall colors in the Adirondack Mountains, and I'm taking time out to write about football. The Bye-weeks begin this week, which means each week there are less survivors to pick from. Speaking of survivors, only 4 favorites covered last week in the NFL, and for the second year in a row, the Patriots embarrassed Josh Allen. Once again Bill's fans saw why, with Allen as their QB, they haven't gone to the Super Bowl. 

That may sound like I'm not a Bill's fan, which is false. I own a #17 jersey, and picked the Bills last week, but right now MVP stands for Mostly Very Poor! I mean does any reasonable football fan think with 1:20 left in the game and 2 time outs, that head coach Joe Brady told his QB to throw a 40-yard pass into double coverage? In his last 5 games Allen has fumbled 7 times and thrown 5 interceptions. It's time the media stopped making excuses for Allen. Oh yeah, the Bill's defense is also MVP. 

It's time to go with our first teaser parley this season. San Francisco has scored over 24 points every game, twice over 35. Seattle has scored over 30 points, 3 of their 4 games. The O/U is 45.5. Jacksonville has scored 79 points in their 2 home games. Philly has scored 44-points in their 2 away games. Between the 2 teams, that's an average of 62 points a game. That O/U is 41.5. Let's tease both games over 7-points and put a little cash in our pockets. Seattle game over 38.5 with Philly game over 34.5. 

Man in Stripes: LA RAMS Team Total Over 29.5

LA Rams team total over 29.5 points, I'd play this up to 30.5.. So far the Rams are #2 in NFL in passing offense.. Matthew Stafford having another great start to the season, team is healthy now, Puka Nacua, Savant Adams, and Jordan Whittington are a top 5 receiving corp.. The Bills, no Bueno in the secondary..The injury to Christian Benford, no helping  matters, with his injured toe.. Both second year corner, Maxwell Hairston, CJ Gardner-Johnson, and even Cole Bishop, have really struggled early this season.. The Bills are 27th ranked in passing yards allowed.. The Rams are 16-5 L21, in their team rotal going over.. Over under is 54.5, and who can't forget to wild 44-42 Bills win in Sofi in 2024..There will be PLENTY OF POINTS in this Monday Night thriller.. Cant see how Rams can't score AT LEAST 30pts in this one.. Good luck and enjoy the games..

MONO: WEST VIRGINIA +3.5 OVER ARIZONA

Going back to the well and snatching West Virginia as a home dog this Saturday as they play host to a noon kick against Arizona. Arizona is 4-1 and traveling across country to face the 3-2 Mountaineers. West Virginia is coming off of a shootout loss against Iowa State last week. Qb Michael Hawkins and Rb Cam Cook combined for 291 on the ground and 4 tds. Hawkins added 227 through the air with 2 more TDs and their defense couldn’t get a stop to win the game. They’ve lost 2 straight since conference play opened up and look to get back in the win column this week. Arizona dispatched Cincinnati on their home field last week behind a stout defensive effort, giving up less than 250 total yards. Impressive, yes, but this was the same bearcats team that went life and death with Miami Ohio a couple of weeks ago. Arizona has 2 wins, one against the MAC and another against FCS Northern Arizona. Mix in a road win against Washington State and there’s their 4 wins right there. I say all this to show that their 4-1 start might be a little inflated. I think this is as close to a must win for West Virginia as you can get in October. Mix in a 9 am biological clock kick for Arizona (forget about what happened with the UCLA fade 2 weeks ago) and you have a recipe for another potential outright dog winner this week. After giving up 80+ combined over their last 2 games, I expect this Mountaineer defense to bear down and get some stops. Arizona QB Noah Fifita is prone to make a few turnovers and may surrender some short fields. West Virginia buckles down and gets the proverbial train back on the tracks. If not, they lose by a field goal or less and cover. Take WVU +3.5, and give a little more than a sprinkle on the ML.

Brutal: North Dakota (-3) @ UNLV 

  North Dakota State is one helluva school with a good administration, a successful athletics' department and a great football team.  For years, the Bisons dominated FCS-1 football and between 2011-2024 they won an incredible 10 National Championships.  For years they would schedule decent FCS schools early in the year, go on the road and then often beat them!  In 2016 they beat #11 IOWA in Iowa City.  They have also beat many MAC teams, as well as Kansas, Colorado State, Iowa State and Minnesota twice (all on the road of course).  They have always been consistent, but have had trouble the last few years scheduling willing FCS opponents.  They had always planned to move up to the FBS and waited with great patience, but these developments facilitated their move up to the top level this year.  The management was always prudent and wanted to follow in the footsteps of previous success stories like Marshall, James Madison and Boise State. 

  This year is their first at the top level, and they have not missed a beat and have gone a strong 5-0.  Head coach Tim Polasek has been running things since 2023, and before that he was an assistant coach and offensive coordinator for the Bison during two stints over the last ten years; he knows the NDSU system, philosophy and approach inside out.  

  This may be the best UNLV team in a few years, they are 3-2, coming off their biggest win of the year last week, beating California in Sin City by a score of 39-31.  Head coach Dan Mullen had lots of experience at Mississippi State and Florida in the SEC and has invigorated UNLV.  However, the disciplined, control the clock, do not turn the ball over attitude of the Bisons I believe will prevail yet again and they will strangle the Rebels on Saturday night.  The Bison have a legacy of winning on the road, and the distractions of Las Vegas are unlikely to faze them.  By the way, UNLV were called the "Rebels" because when the school was created in 1957 as the southern division campus for the University of Nevada (Reno), they complained vehemently about their treatment, funding and prioritization in academics and sports compared to the northern mother campus.

  Maybe this is the best game on Saturday night, so we will all turn the channel to the CW Network which now features "Live Sports Programming" far more frequently instead of their many groundbreaking teenager aimed Shakespearean masterpieces like "Gossip Girl," "Riverdale" "The Vampire Diaries," and "Jane the Virgin." 

  North Dakota is best known for prairie desolation, a higher than average rural suicide rate, politics somewhere to the right of Vlad the Impaler, and virtually unregulated fracking despite certain long term environmental disasters like permanent damage to the water table; it cannot just be coincidence that North Dakota has much higher cancer rates due to ground & drinking water with excessive levels of Benzene, Formaldehyde, Cumene, Lead and the highly toxic Acrylonitrile used to extract natural gas from the earth, ..... but, ...... they also have a very efficient football team that is going to excel over the coming years in the FBS and has a good shot of winning the Mountain West this year if they can win Saturday night and beat New Mexico in two weeks (maybe they will even get ranked!). 

  We are giving the three points to the men from Fargo, the alma mater of professional wrestler Bob Backlund, baseball great Roger Maris, Carson Wenz, Trey Lance, Dukes of Hazzard star Tom Wopat and one-time supermodel Cheryl Tiegs.   

Bob: Jacksonville -7.5 over Philly

This line has gone crazy.  The look ahead line back in the summer had Philly as favorite.  Even on Sunday it was Jacksonville -2.5.  Now it is over a touchdown.

What happened?  Well first Philly has a ton of injuries. Saquon Barkley being out along with DeVonta Smith hurts the weapons the Eagles have on offense.

The more injuries then that falls on Jalen Hurts and we see his limitations. Now you’re going to London to play a Jacksonville team that is playing like the best team in the AFC.

To make matters worse Lane Johnson retired this week.  How bad is that? With Johnson in the lineup the Eagles won 70 percent of their games. Without Johnson in the lineup the Eagles win 37.50 percent of their games. 

The Jacksonville defense is the real deal. The Jaguars defense has held opponents to 13 points a game.  I don’t see Philly scoring much more than that with all of their injuries.