STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 6

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2024 record 17-9

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 413-312-14=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7-point teaser- Was/Balt Over 44.5 and Atlanta/Carolina Over 39.5

Football is a pretty simple game that is complicated by coaches. Example: Last week Josh Allen was 9 for 27 when the Bills got the ball on their own 2-yard line with 32-seconds left in a tie game. Having only completed 33% of his passes, head coach Sean McDermott let his QB to throw 3 more incompletions, which allowed Houston to get the ball back and kick a winning field goal. There’s got to be a word that means dumber than stupid.

Let’s have some fun with teasers this week. Both Washington & Baltimore have scored at least 20-points in every game this year. Last week they combined for 75-points. In the 10-games combined that Atlanta & Carolina have played, their opponents have scored at least 21-points in 8 of the 10 games. We’re beginning to see more scoring now in the NFL, but I also like to be cautious. So,

let’s tease these 2 games over, in a parley with 7-points. Wash/Balt over 44.5 and Atlanta/ Carolina over 39.5.

Man in Stripes: Tampa Bay -3 @ New Orleans

Alot of moving parts in this game.  First the Bucs have a "rare" 4-day rest advantage, playing and losing in OT in Atlanta, while the Saints played and lost, (I KNOW!!) in KC on Monday night, losing starting QB, Derek Carr, is the process. The Saints will start rookie, Spencer Rattler, in his place, and his first NFL start will come against a very hungry Bucs D, there were 8 Saints that missed practice on Wednesday, team is banged up!!!!

 Baker Mayfield has quietly had a great start to the season, and their offense has been putting up lots of points!!!

Also, I feel the Bucs will have some EXTRA incentive "playing for their city", on the heels of the catastrophic damage caused this week by Hurricane Milton in the Tampa and surrounding areas. We are all praying for the best of all the areas affected down in Florida. With all of this, Tampa is the right side laying a FG. GOOD LUCK!!!

Mono: Utah -5.5 over Arizona State

Hmmmm. Back and forth on a few. I’ve been burned in college by some rat lines. It appears I refuse to learn my lesson. There’s a Friday night game that caught my eye before the huge slate on Saturday. Going with Utah -5.5 @ Arizona State. I hate laying points on the road, but this is an exception. The Sun Devils snuck a win out in the final moments at home against an underachieving Kansas bunch. Utah laid a dud in their last game against Arizona on the 28th and had a week to let that settle in. Utah gets their QB Cam Rising back in this spot and they should be looking to redeem themselves. Arizona State has protected their home field this year, but they haven’t hosted a team of Utah's caliber. Utah pulls up to Tempe and wins by at least a touchdown. Go Utes -5.5.

Brutal:  Oregon +3.5 over Ohio State

 College Gameday is in Eugene, Oregon this week.  We realize Lee Corso is really old and plays a diminished role in the program over the last few years, but his replacement Pat McAfee is little more than a contrived annoyance.  When he is not playing the Infomercial Influencer stooge host for the product, he hawks most of the time: that would be Aaron Rodgers, Pat is prancing around the set like a morphed melt of Steven A. Smith, Skip Bayless and a brain damaged WWE Wrestler.  He desperately tries to stir false controversy with this obnoxious portrayal of an insider journalist housing the demeanor of an amphetamine addicted hamster. .....  Last week Gameday were in Berkely, California, undermining the Golden Bears with bad karma to the extent that they blew a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter! ...... and subsequently lost to Miami.  The presence on the left coast for a second week in a row in Eugene will hopefully not curse the Ducks this week like they did the Bears last week. 

  Two undefeated teams, highly ranked, the buzz on this game has risen to the intensity level of a Motorhead concert using an outdoor festival PA in a small arena ( I have experienced this).  I think Oregon is better than Ohio State.  They have played the tougher schedule; both teams beat Michigan State by about the same margin; this is the toughest road test for the Buckeyes since they lost to the National Champion Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor last year (where they lost).  Looking ahead to this game, head coach Dan Lanning has been holding a lot of plays back this year, (last week he went kitty-bar-the door in the fourth quarter against Michigan State ((who mysteriously kicked a seemingly meaningless last minute field goal in a 31-7 blowout to make the final 31-10 (((the spread was 22 after all.  Hey, if you cannot win, at least make the alumni happy )))))) ..........so, expect to see some unique formations and different motion from the depths of the sacred super-secret Merganser playbook this week. 

  By the way, the Buckeye tree and nut team name that THE Ohio State University has christened its athletic participants with is known by other names; when Buckeye nuts are crushed open, they give off a robust, rancid odor, so they are often called the False Chestnut, the Fetid Buckeye, the Stinking Buckeye and the Putrid Buckeye.  They are also seriously poisonous.  Saturday night, the toadstool chestnuts come up short in the Pacific Time Zone in their first real test of the year.  If unranked Vanderbilt can dominate #1 Alabama, then #3 Oregon, getting over a field goal at home is a bonus, because they can beat #2 Ohio State outright in a game where the home atmosphere will be off-the-analytics-charts.    

  Quack Quack, OREGON DUCKS (+3.5)

Bob: Baltimore -6.5 over Washington

For one game it strikes midnight for the Cinderella team in the NFL this season. The Commanders have been great this year. I love the story. They have beaten up on teams that have problems on at least one side of the ball. They beat Arizona and Cincinnati, which have two of the worst defenses in football. Last week they beat Cleveland and Deshaun Watson, which has a horrible offense.  This week they travel to play a complete team in Baltimore that is on a roll.  This is a bad match-up for the Commanders which sport a suspect run defense.  This is not a good thing when facing Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  The Commanders give up over 130 yards rushing a game and average giving up over 5 yards per carry.  The Ravens average over six yards per carry on the ground. For one game Jayden Daniels struggles on the road in this step up in class.