STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 6

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2026 Record 12-13

2025 record 56-55

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 533-416-15=56%

MR. OVER/UNDER: 7 point teaser INDY EVEN Over Tn and KC -1 over Chargers

If you had Jacksonville in a Survivor pool last week (like I did), you went from throwing a brick at the TV to sending their Special Teams coach a Thank You letter. If you had Washington in a Survivor pool, well, let’s not go there. Minnesota, the Giants, the 49ers, the Bills and the Raiders are all 4-1 against the spread this year. Two of those teams face each other this week, Buffalo at Las Vegas. There’s one team that has yet to cover the spread, the Chargers. Probably the most disappointing team this season.

We did well last week with a 2-team teaser, so let’s keep it going. Of the 80 games played so far this year, the favorites have only covered 33 of them. Part of that might be because the odds makers are making the spreads a little too high. That’s where a teaser can compensate for the odds makers and put some money in your pocket. I’ve seen too many 3.5 and 7.5 lines this year. That half point can play havoc when it comes to  betting the spreads. The Chargers have yet to cover the spread and they’re getting 8.5 this at against KC. Indianapolis is home against Tennessee and given the Titans 6.5. KC can’t afford to lose to a winless division foe and neither can the Colts. So let’s tease both games 7-points and bet that Indy will win and KC will win by at least 2-points.

However if you like teasers, then feel free to add the 49ers to a second teaser bet and make it a 3-team teaser with San Francisco. Like Indy, the 49ers will only have to win on a teaser.  

Man in Stripes: Jags -2.5 over Texans in London..

 What a crazy weekend in the NFL!! The   nuts ending in London. with Jags winning at the buzzer.. What can you say about Bills/ Rams  on MNF.. In Josh we trust!!!!:And maybe the dumbest play in NFL  history.. What are you thinking Jayden Daniels, Dan Quinn ???Sean Mc Dermott had to question that bone headed way the game ended!!! BOTH Mr. Over/ Under and your truly snuck in winners inside the last 5 seconds of both games.. We turn the page, and we will start early on Sunday, 930am eastern in London, grab a mimosa and a coffee.. A big scheduling advantage is why we are siding with the Jaguars..This is a bad spot for the Texans , their 3rd road game in a row, flying across the pond to play the Jags , who are waiting for them.. Jacksonville  beat the Eagles 19-17, they didn't play well , especially their goal line offense but are 4-1, looking to go 5-1 for the first time this century..Texans just acquired Marvin Harrison, Jr from the Cardinals, but I like this Jags D alot..3rd in Defensive DVOA, 3nd in points allowed per possession.. Throw in starting RB, David Montgomery,  most likely beginning out for Houston, and the number is under a FG.. Ill enjoy my bagel and win some $$ , take the Jags, and enjoy the football..

MONO: OLE MISS -5.5 OVER MISSOURI

We got a loaded Saturday slate here with a bunch of ranked showdowns. Perfect week to sit on the couch from noon to midnight … 

Anyways, Saturdays are great for spot plays. One week team A might beat team B and the next week team A loses to team C. Which has to mean when team C runs into team B, they’ll win right? Not here. Mizzou travels to Ole Miss this weekend for a 330 SEC clash. Mizzou is ranked 13 after blowing out Florida and handling Texas A&M in their last 2 home games. #9 Ole Miss had a week off after losing big to Florida and steamrolled a young Vanderbilt team last week. My cap here is simple.. it’s a spot play for the Rebels at home. Mizzou is 5-1, and drinkwitz often finds himself in these spots until he runs into the elite in the SEC. Trinidad Chamblis and Ole Miss are in that top tier, and I don’t think the tigers can hang with them on the road. Mizzous one loss came on the road at Miss St where they overcame a slow start but couldn’t close out the game on defense. Ole Miss lost to Florida on the road after an emotional win against former coach Lane Kiffin. That bye week was big for them, and they’re back on track. I don’t think Mizzou will be able to stop Ole Miss or hang with em offensively. We need Ole Miss by 6 here, and I think they win this one comfortably. Take Ole Miss to win by at least a touchdown here. Rebels -5.5.

Brutal: BYU +11 OVER NOTRE DAME

  Nothing speaks to the blatant corruption of college football like the "Sweetheart Deal" the Fighting Irish have with the CFP, the TV Networks and the general relationship it all fosters with the scores of ecclesiastically attached adherents they cultivate around the world.  When the poor babies from South Bend finished the 2025 season ranked #11, they whined, and they cried till the gutless College Football Playoff committee guaranteed them:  "That in the future, Notre Dame will warrant a college football playoff spot if they finish ranked in the top 12."  All of this means that the semi-independent, semi-conference affiliated, 100% special-status Notre Dame can lose on Saturday night in Provo and they will still have an 82% chance of being given their golden ticket, do-not-wait-in-line, private box platinum lanyard free pass to more mullah, publicity and marketing opportunities in the CFP.  With the usual weak-sauce schedule that Notre Dame plays each year, this is almost a fait accompli as long as they don't lose three games this season.  That is very unlikely because the Golden-Domers only have #3 Miami left on their schedule as the only team that could possibly beat them, but that game is in South Bend; in fact all of their remaining games are in Indiana except for a final game visit to Syracuse to play the Orangemen who seem to regress each season as it wears on (wanna bet Notre Dame is at least a 21 point favourite by the time this game happens?)  

  By the way, do not be surprised if the new 24 team CFP format announced today contains a new special set of secret rules for these oligarchs who hide behind their Jesuit disposition.  Eventually we will find out about who is hoarding all that cash, but the CFP and their overlords are going to be slow in being forthcoming. 

 "Eleven Points!?!"  If any of the other top five ranked teams were on the road against any of the teams ranked between six and 10, would they be favoured by double digits?  This line is just too F*(@!_**# ing! high.  BYU is living for and in this moment.  The Irish have not beaten a top ten ranked team on the road since 2012!!!  They have gone 0-7 in that time frame, and the low sample size is partly due to their almost always bogus schedule by choice.  

  Looking closer at the schedule, we see that the best win the Irish have this year is over Purdue. That is right!  Purdue!  Yes Purdue has played a little better lately, but they are a mid-level Big 10 team at best.  Wisconsin is average and was even worse at the beginning of the year when the Irish beat them.  North Carolina still does not count for much until Bill Belichick resolves a lot of his own Natalie Harp issues, ...... so that leaves wins over Rice, Michigan State and the worst Stanford team since before John Elway played in Palo Alto.  Not exactly a Murder's Row of gridiron greats to justify their lofty #2 ranking! 

  Both teams are undefeated and Notre Dame is of course stacked with more talent.  It is a concern that BYU is missing their top running back R.J. Martin, but they have played without him for three weeks.  Cougars' QB Bear Bachmeier is more akin to an anvil with arms and legs than a prototypical signal caller.  However, he does have a 67% completion rating, eight touchdowns and only one interception; he has also ran for four touchdowns and has not fumbled.   Head Coach Kalani Sitake of BYU is an old, old, old school style coach.  This former fullback's team hits hard and often; the defensive line gets pressure without help from the other two tiers of the defense; they have at least four or five future NFL players on that starting eleven; they are disciplined and due to the anomalies of Mormon mission commitments, their starters tend to be a little older, therefore mature and experienced.  With a  pretty conservative Cougar offence, the defense will be the key to victory and will need to foster some turnovers as they have all year.  Notre Dame's depth is a strength and a concern, but they have some key injuries as well.   BYU is 34-6 in their last 40 games at home; their last loss was three years ago.  Lavell Edwards Stadium will be rocking with 66,000 believers on Saturday night.  I expect a Cougars' victory will bring a lot of "Personal Revelations," "Testimony," and "Whisperings of the Spirit," but few "Epiphanies"  (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints does not officially recognize the traditional Christian holiday of Epiphany celebrating the Magi paying their respects to the Virgin Birth of Jesus ).

  As inferred, this game is a big deal on other levels.  This is a showdown between the two college football programmes that thanks to their indelible religious affiliations, have the largest followings in the world outside the United States!  It is "The Pope" vs. "The Polygamist, ..... "Touchdown Jesus" vs. "The Salamander Letter" on Saturday night in a epic clash of apocryphal proportions!

  We are taking those eleven points and we are spicing up some BYU Moneyline parlays on Saturday night with some Sunday NFL action.  This is by far the toughest test for the Irish so far this year in by far the most hostile environment they have played in this year.  We think this is a line that represents public perceptions over hard cold facts.

  We are taking the school founded by the visionary man with 56 wives: Mr. Brigham Young, ....... the alma mater of Napoleon Dynamite, Mr. Jon Heder, ..... the inventor of the television, Philo Farnsworth and the increasingly annoying Jeopardy host Ken Jennings, ....... as well as golfers Johnny Miller & Mike Weir, the multi-talented, multi-sport Danny Ainge, and quarterbacks Robbie Bosco, Ty Detmer, Steve Young and Jim McMahon.

Bob: KC -2 over Chargers. SF -1.5 over Washington 6 point Teaser

Let’s go back to the teaser route where you have two teams at home that are a combined 9-0 against two teams that are a combined 1-3-1. We only need for the home teams to win because we are teasing the number past all of the major numbers.  Let’s not forget Andt Reid teams coming off of a bye are 22-5 overall. The Chiefs are coming off of the bye against the Chargers that are lost right now.

In the San Francisco game you have what by all accounts is one of the best coached teams in the NFL against one of the worst.  The end of the Commanders overtime game last week shows the lack of coaching.  The Commanders botched the clock and the worst part was Jayden Daniels didn’t even realize it was a problem until it was way too late. SF is coming off an emotional win over Seattle so I don’t like the spread of over a TD but teasing down is the way to go.