STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 7

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 15-15

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 478-362-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Seattle -3 over Houston

How much can a half-point matter when you’re betting in the NFL? Well that’s how much we lost our parley by last week, a stinking half-point.  That’s why I’m jumping on this week’s pick, before Vegas decides to add a half-point.  Houston is coming out of their bye week, after two straight wins. But those wins came against  Tennessee and an injury ridden Ravens team. The Texans are headed to the great (and rainy) Northwest to take on the Seahawks. Houston’s offensive line is not in good shape and Seattle usually plays tough at home. Seattle’s QB Sam Darnold seems to be saying that his success in Minnesota last year was no fluke. The NFC West is still up for grabs and here’s an opportunity for Seattle to show they’re going to compete. I like Seattle at home -3.

Man in Stripes:  Vandy-2.5 vs LSU

Well all good things have to come to an end!!! Looked good 28 points thru the first 20 minutes in Atlanta, on Monday night, and then ......Oh well, we dust ourselves off..Lets start a new streak..... Lets head to the almamater of Willie Geist, Vanderbilt..Clark Lea, in his 5 year in Nashville, has something special  brewing .After going 7-6 last year, the Commodores are 5-1, losing 2 weeks ago to Bama,  in what was literally a 1 position game. Their offense is high powered, under QB, Diego Paria, who is averaging almost 300 total yards per game..Overall averaging 465 total yards per game .. LSU, under Brian Kelly , has been plodding along, they have failed to score 20 points in their last 4 games vs power conference opponents..I wish this game was later in the day, instead of an 11am local, giving the fans and students in Nashville a little bit of time to" get ready" for the game.. Either way, Vandy wears down the Tigers in the second half..We talk about unranked favorites being 65% over ranked  dogs.. Similar here , and we will go with the #17 favorite team, COMING OFF A BYE, at home vs the 10th ranked LSU Tigers.. 

A couple others that almost made the cut:

UNLV +12.5

Duke ML

Hawaii ML

Tenn +8.5

Titans +6.5, new coach theory

Carolina / Giants both playing teams coming back from London.. 

That's all!! Lol.. GOJAYS!!!! Good luck , and enjoy the games!!!

Mono: Iowa-Penn State UNDER 40.5

This week, staying in the college ranks and attacking a low total on Saturday night. Penn State travels to Iowa after the big coaching change and losing their QB for the rest of the season. This total is set at 40.5 and I love the under here. Penn State will start Redshirt Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer at QB against a top 20 defense in Iowa that is stout at all levels. It is a hard ask to expect this kid to go in and score more than a couple of field goals in this spot. Iowa’s offense is not good. (is it ever?) FCS Transfer Mark Gronowski hasn’t proved to be better than anybody they’ve had under center for the past decade. He is actually, what feels like the exact same. The kid has yet to eclipse 200 passing yards this season and I don’t expect this one to be his coming out party. Penn State is still great defensively and even if they weren’t, Iowa’s offense is bad. Both of these teams will rely on their run game and field position will play a key role. Honestly, I think 10-13 points from either side wins this game. Take the under 40.5 in a Big10 Peacock snoozer on Saturday night.

Brutal:     Washington (+7) @ MICHIGAN 

  We have had quite a streak this year of picking underdogs visiting huge, intimidating stadiums.  We started it with the Ducks coming to Penn State during a 112,000 person whiteout at Beaver Stadium and not only covering but beating Penn State outright.  As we presciently predicted, the Nittany Lions would fall apart after this loss.  Since then, Penn State went on the road for a couple of weeks, where they were favored by a combined 46 points in two consecutive games!!!! ....... and promptly lost outright to both UCLA and Northwestern.  Then broken-record, positive inspiration, motivation life-coach James Franklin was finally fired.  He will receive a $57 million buyout, so no tears or tag days for Mr. Franklin who can now do the rubber chicken circuit and wow crowds with his impersonation of comedian Keegan Michael Key. 

  After that we took Vanderbilt, who had the worst bad beat ever in the sold-out-as-usual Bryant-Denny Stadium in Alabama.  Then last week we went against all the experts and took the Indiana Hoosiers to cover in Oregon at sold out Autzen Stadium, and they promptly beat the Ducks outright.  Since that contest, the University of Indiana has ponied up a renegotiated contract for head coach Curt Cignetti that will pay him just under $90 million dollars over eight years.  The contract includes a huge buyout to the tune of $60 million!  So, if the Nittany Lion faithful, alumni, boosters and corporate sponsors want to steal him, the entire Franklin firing-Cignetti hiring mess would take just short of $120 million dollars to come true!  Just don't ask why tuition rates are astronomical junior.  Isn't higher education grand!   

  The Washington Huskies are well coached and flying under the radar this year; they are 5-1, their only loss being to Ohio State.  They had trouble on third down, but they only gave up 24 points which is the fewest the Ohio State Buckeyes have scored this year and the fewest yards achieved on offence ( The NIL Pork Barrel winners of college football, the Buckeyes have spent the most, well over 25 million dollars this year to make sure they have the best roster money can buy!).  What do you want to bet that Michigan ( a perennial contender in the NCAA Pork Barrel largesse trough feeding contest ) will give up way more yards and points than Washington when they host Ohio State on November 29.  

  Keeping with our theme of visiting sides winning in big stadiums, we also like USC going into South Bend and covering or even upsetting the Touchdown Jesus-us of Notre Dame (-10).  However, since we only get one pick, we are taking Washington, not because they are any better than their former conference pals USC, but because Notre Dame is a lot better than Michigan this year.  The Huskies go into the Big House and show everybody that they deserve to at least be ranked!

Bob: UNLV +12.5 over Boise State

Have to be honest when I saw this line I assumed the UNLV QB must be out. That is not the case so I believe this is way too many points to give the Rebels. Dan Mullen brings his 6-0 team into the blue turf. The Rebels victory over UCLA looks better and better each week. This is definitely the toughest test for UNLV but this isn’t the same Boise team we have become accustomed to. I saw them lose to South Florida and Notre Dame and they just aren’t as strong without A. Jeantry. The key to the game is going to be if UNLV can run against a good  Broncos rush defense.  I believe they will be able to do enough to at least keep it close.  This should be the preview of the Mountain West Title game. History is on my side as UNLV is 6-0 as a double digit dog in Boise.