STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 8

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2024 record 26-11

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 422-314-14=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Pittsburgh -6 over Giants

For the first time this year, in the NFL, the odd makers have six games with odds of a touchdown or better. As we’ve seen more scoring, and a few blowouts, Vegas is beginning to catch up. Better teams seem to be covering the spread, so it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit, which is 5-1 against the spread, will cover the largest spread of 10.5 against Tennessee this week. Pittsburgh is one of the surprise teams this year. Their defense is solid, allowing 20 or more points only twice. There were concerns last week when Russell Wilson was named the starter, but the Steelers ran up 37-points on the Jets. This week the Steelers face the other New Jersey team (no that’s not a misprint) called the Giants. The Steelers have won 21 straight MNF games at home. This one should make it 22. I like Pittsburgh -6.

Man in Stripes: Atlanta -2.5 over Tampa Bay

When betting on sports a wise man once told me to play the team it matters most to. Teams hot, cold and banged up matter.  We took advantage of that a couple of week ago with a Bucs team vs a rookie QB with the Saints. We will go against the Bucs this week at home vs Atlanta. Monday night was a disaster for Tampa Bay. They gave up 41 points and lost both starting receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. This will really hurt Baker Mayfield, who was having a great season so far. Also questionable is RB Bucky Irving and the team is coming off a short week. The Bucs secondary has been horrible giving up 5 TD’s to Lamar Jackson is an example. In the first meeting Kirk Cousins threw for 500 yards in a wild Atlanta win.  We faded Utah last week after devastating injury news and we do the same this week with Tampa. Not a big fan of the road favorite in the NFL but this situational spot is too good to pass up.  Love we are giving less than a FG.

Other:

Like the Dodgers in 6, better lineup 1-9, better bullpen and better manager.

Mono: Kansas +10 over Kansas State

Going back to the college ranks for what COULD be slaughter, but I don’t think so.. let’s have some fun. 

Taking the Jayhawks +10 against their rival, K-State. Kansas has been a major disappointment this year. Pre-season ranking of #22 (who really cares, Michigan was top 10 3 weeks ago.) 2-5, with Lance Leipold and Jalon Daniels at the helm is not what they envisioned after 9 wins last season. They’ve been off to a brutal start to Big 12 play and the season as a whole, BUT 4 out of their 5 losses have been by one score…. Hear me out. 

The Jayhawks lose close games, having only lost one by 10+ to TCU. Kansas doesn’t presently have a home field, playing their home games an hour away at the home of the Chiefs. Cool, this game is in Manhattan, Kansas. K-State is rolling, winners of 3 straight since a stinker at BYU (nice pick Brutal) and 6 games overall. K-State has playoff aspirations while Kansas will be lucky to sniff a bowl game. Kansas kept this game close last year, on their home field and with their 3rd string QB. Kansas has lost 15 straight in this matchup… you think they don’t know that? In a season many would like to forget in Lawrence, pride is on the line. Rivalry games in college are fun and often close when it doesn’t make sense.  I think this one falls under that category. The Jayhawks cover the double digit spread. Take Kansas +10. 

Brutal: Cincinnati Bearcats (+6) @ COLORADO BUFFALOS 

The Big XII has been a pleasant surprise this year with a ton of parity and some big surprises.  The 5-2 Cincinnati Bearcats are sort of a throwback team; a solid, no-nonsense defense that forces turnovers and an offence that will not win any beauty contest but is content to run a possession dominant offence and win low scoring games but still the sort of balanced offence that Iowa or Rutgers would kill to possess).  Cincinnati has lost two games by a total of four points.  They lost by a solitary point to Pittsburgh, 28-27.  This game was a slugfest before anyone realized how good the #19, 6-0 Pitt Panthers were going to be this year.  In their other defeat, the Bearcats fell 44-41 in Lubbock to Texas Tech in one of the best games of the year. 

  Colorado may be happy that Coach Prime has raised the profile of Party U to Transfer Portal Transfer Heaven.  Neon Deon has also helped the university sell all their season tickets for the next three years, but high expectations are somewhat tempered as the true identity of this team is revealed.  They are 5-2, 3-1 in the Big XII just like Cincinnati.  However, Colorado is a big-mistake-big play team that almost lost to North Dakota State and Baylor; they could easily be 3-4.  Yes, they may think they have the next Charles Woodson-Desmond Howard multi-role Heisman winner playing this week in the personage of a banged-up Mel Tucker as well as the two Sanders All Americans, but Cincinnati is the more disciplined side that relishes this National Television telecast to play an overhyped team.  

  Head coach Scott Satterfield of the Bearcats is in his second year in Cincinnati.  He inherited a bare cupboard when Luke Fickell absconded to Madison to coach the Badgers, but this roster is much better than the team in 2023.  Satterfield is a product of the Appalachian State pipeline, so pulling football upsets is in his blood.  Takeaway the betting of impressionable young men who bet like crazy on Colorado and also downplay the dubious altitude advantage and this game would be close to a Pick-Em.  

  By the way, bearcats are neither bear nor cat, they are in their own genus, a relative of the civet; they are mostly peaceful, nocturnal and their fur smells like buttered popcorn.  Of course the Colorado Buffalos should be called the Colorado Bison, since that is the animal that roamed the great plains to near distinction and we assume by the logo on the helmet, the presence of Ralphie the mascot at football games, and general geographical common sense that the American Bison is the animal this august learning institution meant to choose for the team name ( It would be great if some team adapted a nasty Water Buffalo as the team name, logo and mascot) .  Bearcats are highly endangered and have lost 30% of their population in the last fifty years, mostly in Indonesia due to palm oil farming, while the American Bison was brought back from the very brink of extinction by selective breeding with Canadian Wood Bison to save the species less than a hundred years ago. 

  We will take the more consistent team with the bigger offensive and defensive lines as well as the six points.  We will side with the benign, balmy Binturongs and the alma mater of:  William Howard Taft, Urban Meyer, Oscar Robertson, George Clooney and Sarah Jessica Parker. 

Bob: San Francisco -4 over Dallas

I just can’t see San Francisco falling to 3-5 on the season, so I see them bouncing back with a win here. The loss of Aiyuk will hurt the passing game but that’s not how I see the Niners winning this game.  Going back to last year the Bills exposed the Cowboys as a bad run defense. San Francisco is going to pound the ball down the Cowboys throats. San Francisco behind Kyle Shanahan has a top ten run game and it will be on full display. On the other hand, Kansas City this past week beat the 49ers by running on them.  Dallas will be unable to unveil this same game plan.  Dallas is dead last in running the football; yes,

they are 32ndin the league. Patrick Mahomes struggled against this pass defense throwing zero touchdowns and two interceptions. A one-dimensional Dallas offense can’t hurt San Francisco where they are vulnerable. Let’s go with the Niners not to lose two straight at home