STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 8

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 17-18

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 480-365-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Bengals +.5, New England -.5, 7-point teaser

Some FUN facts in the NFL, so far this season.. Dallas has averaged 17-more-points per game at home. Carolina is 5-2 ATS while the Bills are 2-4. Miami went under the total in week #1, but has gone over every game since. The Vikings are considered to have a good defense, but their games have gone under only once. Cleveland has lost every road game by at least 14-points. Philadelphia has not won a game by more than 7-points. The last time the Giants won in Philadelphia was 2013. Jim Kelly never won the MVP award, but took the Bills to 4 Super Bowls. Josh Allen won the MVP award last year, but has failed to take the Bills to a Super Bowl. Makes you wonder, how important is the MVP award?

Although the weather can change,, as of today (Thursday) the weather looks comfortable for the outdoor games I’m picking. I’m going back to a 7-point teaser parley, with two teams that should win easily. But therein lies the problem with the NFL. When things looks too easy, you can lose a lot of money. Just look at the Bills last two games. As mentioned previously, Cleveland has a hard time scoring on the road. The Jets  have a hard time stopping opponents from scoring. But I’m going to play those games somewhat cautiously, taking the favorites in a 2-team teaser parley. Go with the Bengals +.5 and New England to just win. 

Man in Stripes:  Bills (-1)/ Steelers (+9.5)- 6 pt teaser

Just recovering from one of the great sporting events I've ever been to.. Monday night, Game 7 up in Toronto as MY Blue Jays with, George Springer the hero, win the AL Pennant defeating the Mariners in Game 7.. Maybe the loudest I've ever heard at crowd.. An iconic sports moment ..ITS WHY WE LOVE SPORTS!! We also love winners, so lets go!!.

Bills -1, I know the Bills have looked bad the last 2 weeks, their Super Bowl train has been derailed a bit,  they get some players back on defense, Panthers been much better than expected, but Bryce Young is questionable with an ankle injury, Allen has never lost 3 in a row, and Mc Dermitt  is 8-0 SU after byes.. We tease the game just about to a pickem. IF Bills can't win this one, then they are not a legitimate Super Bowl team..

Steelers +9.5, we tease it over, 6, 7.. In Tomlin We Trust. Blindly we take his season overs , this year 8.5 wins, we cash every year.. As a home dog, Tomlin is 23-6-3 , NUFF SAID!!! Throw in a 3 day rest advantage as the Steelers  played last Thursday, throw in a little extra  Aaron Rodgers will against his former team, and the Packers , who are 0-4 ats L4, and just seem like they have been plodding along.. This is the spot you jump on the Steelers.. Sprinkle some on the ML as well..

A COUPLE OF OTHERS

Vandy -2.5- Diego Pavia an ATS ATM

49ERS +1.5, Texans are frauds 

MINN +9, Iowa offense ..nuff said

And last but not least , throw some pizza money on JAYS +190 , THEY WIN IN 7.. It's been a magical year, Dodgers are better team, BUT my Jays find a way.. Get in back to Toronto, and the city, country WILLS THE JAYS TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP!!! O' CANADA!!!!! OK BLUE JAYS LETS PLAY BALL!!!!

Mono: Houston +7.5 Over Arizona State

There were a few different angles I had this week, but lines began to shift throughout the day and tightened up some spots. We go with another Saturday night prime time game, this time in the Big 12. Houston travels to Arizona State and they’re getting a touchdown. Arizona State is coming off an upset win at home against Texas Tech. Easily their biggest win of the season. Sam Leavitt threw for 300+ and looks to build on that performance. He’ll be missing his #1 WR Jordyn Tyson for this one, which is a big blow. In comes Willie Fritz and the Houston Cougars. Houston is 6-1, without a signature win. In their biggest test of the season, QB Connor Weigman got hurt early and they lost big to Texas Tech. They get a chance to redeem that here with a big performance on the road. This may be a let down spot for the Sun Devils after their biggest win of the season and in a prove it spot, we’re going with the Cougars and the points. Arizona State is 3-1 in big 12 play, with all 3 wins coming by 4 points are less. I expect Willie Fritz to scheme up some looks that make life hard for Leavitt through the air, especially without his #1 out wide. We’re going to take advantage of the points here and take the 7. In a low scoring game, Houston keeps it close with a chance to win it late. Take Houston +7.5

Brutal: Montreal Alouettes @ WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (-5.5) 

  Here is the situation.  This game takes place on Saturday afternoon.  Friday night the Eastern Conference, first place Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the very weak, out of the playoffs, 4-13, last place Ottawa Redblacks.  Hamilton is a 14 point favorite

.  They should win and clinch first place but maybe not cover.  The second this game's outcome is apparent the Alouette-BLUE BOMBER line will go way up.  This is because Montreal will have no chance at first place in the East and therefore will sit a ton of starting players to rest them for next week's Eastern semi-final which they will be hosting.  As a result, Winnipeg should roll over the Alouettes.  They are fighting it out with Calgary and British Columbia for second and third place in the West.  All three are guaranteed playoff spots, but the top team gets a home game.  Calgary will have already played on Friday night when Winnipeg takes the field against Montreal, but British Columbia will not play till later on Saturday night.  Our game will still have big consequences for Winnipeg no matter what Calgary did the night before. 

  Winnipeg is a veteran team that has amazingly been to the last five Grey Cup games.  They won the first two, but have lost the last three straight.  I do not like their chances this year at all, but, ...... they are still a solid outfit, experience up the Yazoo, they have an excellent head coach, they are playing at home in a loud stadium with clear weather and have been playing their best football of the year in the last month.  Even if Ottawa upsets Hamilton on Friday night and Montreal plays all their starters, I still would take the Blue Bombers at (-5).  They have been playing better than the Alouettes and also against better competition in the last few weeks. 

  We will make this bet immediately!!!! ...... because as we have outlined, this spread could possibly double after Friday night.

Bob: Houston -1.5 over San Francisco

The injuries are ramping up in San Francisco. Fred Warner out for the year along with Nick Bosa, then pass rusher Bryce Huff injured in last game. Offensively the 49ers are one dimensional with only able to run the ball with CMC. Houston has been able to stop the run all year.  Against Seattle in a loss they only allowed the Seahawks 3.6 yards per carry. The Houston defense played great against Seattle in a loss.  Texans defense is allowing only 14 points per game. So coming home I think the Houston offense can do enough against the banged up 49ers defense to come away with the win. The low spread means that all the Texans have to do is win out right. The Texans need this game much more than the Niners need it. Houston is desperately close to falling out of the AFC South race. Let’s take the Texans to bounce back at home vs the walking wounded Niners.