Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 30-12
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 426-315-14=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: New Orleans -7 over Carolina
Scoring is back in the NFL. In the last 4-weeks, 45 games have gone over and 14-have gone under. This is why we’ve seen the O/U lines much higher than they were at the beginning of the season. Although I follow the AFC a little more than the NFC, I found an interesting stat about Carolina. They haven’t lost a single game this season but single digits. Every game they’ve lost, they’ve lost by at least 10-points. David Carr is expected back this week for the Saints, while Bryce Young is starting again for Carolina. The Saints are 7-point favorites. Since that’s less than 10, and they’re expected to win, I’ll go with the trend and take New Orleans -7.
Man in Stripes: Navy -10.5@ Rice
This is a perfect storm, Navy coming off a beat down against the Fighting Irish, and Rice, who fired their HC this week.. Navy went into the matchup with UND undefeated and ranked, and were never in the game. That loss should refocus the triple-option offense of the Midshipmen. As for Rice, a lost season, got even more murky, with the firing of HC, Mike Bloomgren, Ast HC, Pete Alamar, will be the interim HC.. Normally, I LOVE THE NEW COACH THEORY, and have played it before, with the team getting a spike.. However it's different in college. Much of this week is redoing coaching staffs, reassuring players of the direction of the team. Free agency, aka, the portal is calling. Throw in the unique Navy offense, with them coming off a loss. This one could get ugly..81% of the tickets are on Navy, that scares me a bit, But 5-2 ATS, every win by 12 or more. The public has it right here. Navy big... And if anyone sees a Yankee fan out there, please give them a cough drop, they need it after choking away the WS.. Enjoy the games!!!
Mono: Washington +2.5 over USC
Gotta start this off with a shout out to stripes. The fan boy in me was waiting to chirp you for the terrible Dodgers pick… We couldn’t even survive a week. My guys folded. Great read, I just refused to accept it.
I finally got a win on a Saturday and ready to double it up. USC travels to Washington this weekend as road favorites. You know what that means? We jump on the home dog. Going with the Huskies +2.5 on their home field. This is historically a PAC 12 matchup, this year shifting to the Big 10. Still sounds weird to me. USC is in a free fall. They’re coming off a blowout win at home against Rutgers, having dropped 3 straight before the get right spot last week. Washington hasn’t been great themselves, losers of 2 straight and 3 out of their last 4. They return home this weekend for homecoming and host a USC team that had everyone fooled after that opening week win against LSU. This team is terrible on the road, in fact, both teams are. The difference here is USC is not traveling cross-country which could benefit them, but I don’t think so. Will Rogers and the huskies should bounce back here on their home field against a USC defense that gets diced up the rough the air. Home crowd behind em against a familiar foe, we’re backing the Huskies +2.5 in a game I’m expecting them to win outright.
Brutal: CFL Eastern Semi Final: Ottawa Redblacks @ TORONTO ARGONAUTS (-5.5)
Two weeks ago we won on the ARGOS in a must-win game against this same Ottawa team that determined where this playoff game would be played. Toronto got out to a 28 point lead in the first quarter. By the end of the third they were up 32 points!!!!! ...... that would be 38-6!!!! The announcer pointed out with three minutes left in the third quarter, that if Ottawa possessed the ball for the entire rest of the game that they would still lose the time of possession stat for this game. That is how one-sided this supposedly clutch game was. Kiss of Death! Ottawa scored 25 points in the fourth quarter against mostly Argo subs. They did this off several turnovers and two consecutive recovered onside kicks that resulted in quick touchdowns. They failed to recover a third onside kick, but just barely! Has any team at any level of organized football ever recovered three straight onside kicks, ....... hmmmm, .... well they did not and we covered the spread by winning 38-31.
In a meaningless regular season finale game last week, the Argos rested their starters and played their entire bench and almost beat Edmonton in Alberta. On the other hand, Ottawa played almost all of their starters in their own meaningless game with Hamilton. They had to do it, because heading into the playoffs, they needed to halt their two-month slide of losing and find some semblance of order and win a game. Hamilton is out of the playoffs but they played their starters in a physical match; the only incentive for the Tiger Cats in the final game of the season was to put up some numbers in the long shot bomb to get their quarterback McLeod John-Baltazar-Bethel Thompson (UCLA, Sacramento State) to win the MOP (Most Outstanding Player) of the CFL this year despite the team missing the playoffs. Ottawa did win the game 37-31, but a few more players got hurt. Regardless of this Pyrrhic victory, and despite the near comeback win against the Argos I do not like the Redblacks overall health or mental confidence heading into Saturday for the rematch. Ottawa have looked like a worn down and worn out team for the last two months.
On Saturday we flash ahead two weeks later from that pivotal game in Toronto which Ottawa lost and we have the same two teams on the same field with essentially the same spread. Toronto is unlikely to get out to a five score lead, but nor are they likely to let their foot of the gas and almost pull an epic collapse again because they will not be resting their starters in the second half. Toronto is healthier, better rested and playing much better football. They have the better quarterback in Chad Kelly and he is determined not to fail in the playoffs as a clear-cut favorite as he and the team did last year against the Montreal Alouettes. As a result we are taking the same favorite with the same confidence as a fortnight ago.
Toronto Argonauts (-5.5)
AAAARRRR-GGOOOOSSSSS!
Bob: Vanderbilt +7 over Auburn
Tough slate in the pros this week so I go back to college. Vanderbilt is a team I’ve seen beat Alabama and hang close with Texas last week. They are rally well coached. They have a quarterback in Diego Pavia that is playing lights out. He has a 13-3 TD to interception ratio and he leads the team in rushing with 537 yards. The opposing QB has struggled with turnovers. That’s been the key to the season for these two teams. Vanderbilt is a plus six in turnovers where Auburn is a minus nine. Vanderbilt always seems to play games close. I get the better-coached team with the better quarterback getting seven points. Let’s take it.
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