STONE COLD LOCKS WEEK 9

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2025 record 20-20

2024 record 67-44-1

2023 Record 82-71-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 483-367-15=57%

MR. OVER/UNDER: Dallas -2.5 over Arizona

I’m sure someone can explain these three games to me. The Bills beat Miami by 10. Miami beats Atlanta by 24. Atlanta beat Buffalo by 10. REALLY? Welcome to the crazy NFL. Or maybe you can explain this? After 7 seasons in the NFL, why hasn’t Josh Allen learned to throw the ball away instead of taking a 20-yard sack? Seems that “Hero Ball” still runs in his veins. Maybe he’ll learn this week from watching Mr. Mahomes?Before we go to my pick, I wanted to share a couple facts. Seattle has won 9 straight road games, dating back to last year, and should make it 10 this week. Speaking of the number 9, Kyler Murray has won 9 straight games at AT&T stadium, dating back to his high school days. However if he plays, that streak ends this weekend.

I thought Dallas had a good chance to cover last week at Denver, especially after averaging 37-points in their previous 4-games. Denver proved me wrong.  Now they’re back home at AT&T against the 2-5 Cardinals. Yes the Cowboys need help on defense, but they’re #2 ranked offense is taking on Arizona’s 25^th ranked defense. As of this writing, we’re not even sure which QB will start for Arizona, so this line could change. Either way, I can see Dallas scoring over 30-points in this game, and I don’t see Arizona being able to keep up. Take the Cowboys -2.5.    

Man in Stripes:  ARMY/ AIR FORCE UNDER 25.5 1 H

Just missed in a backdoor cover, as Steelers could get a 2 pointer from the 1.. We head out to Colorado Springs for a game that will involve the winning of the Commander in Chief trophy.. This is strictly.a numbers play, over THE LAST 25 YEARS, when Army, Navy or Air Force play each other, the number has gone under over 70% of the time.. Army is 1-6 to the under, yes Air Force has scored alot, but I think.the opponent they have played has lead to games getting crazy, UNLV, Hawaii, Boise St to name 3.. The last 11 times these teams have played 11-0 to the under.. Throw in a 10am local start out in the mountain time zone, and I think we see alot of running, keeping the clock running,and slogging thru the first 30 minutes.. 

A few others for the weekend

UFL +7 , new coach theory over UGA

CAL +4.5 over

UVA primed for a lost after consecutive ot wins

Cincy +10.5 over Utah, too many points

Hawaii ML +105 over st Jose st.

And we cant forget  our +190 Jays to win the WS, ONE MORE WIN TO GO.. And yes, the Man in Stripes, a lifelong Jays fan will be up there to hopefully celebrate on Halloween  evening in Toronto.. Good luck, enjoy the games and Go Jays!!!!!!

MONO: North Texas and Navy OVER 65.5

Finally got the monkey off my back. Let’s get hot now. In the spirit of College Hoops kickin off next week, “Mid-Major Mono” is back and all over a total in the group of 5 this Saturday. 

North Texas is hosting Navy Saturday afternoon and the total is set at 65.5. I love the over in this spot. North Texas offense is averaging nearly 500 yards per game. This includes 307 through the air and 178 on the ground. They play fast and score a ton of points. The over is 6-2 in their games this season. Navy is no slouch with the ball, either. Service academy, we know they’re going to run the ball and they do so better than any team in the country, averaging 318 rush yards per game. The over is 6-1 in their games this season. Both teams have a strength on offense, North Texas through the air and Navy on the ground. On the other side of the ball, North Texas hasn’t been able to stop the run all year and Navy’s pass defense is swiss cheese. This one feels too easy, and we may get burned with a 34-31 final. With that said, North Texas likes to maximize possessions, averaging nearly 73 offensive plays run per game. Navy may be methodical in the run game, but the mean green are not mean tacklers and Navy will break off some long touchdown runs. This game will be loaded with explosive plays from both sides all afternoon. Take the over 65.5 and enjoy the show.

Brutal: #17 Cincinnati (+10.5) @ #24 UTAH 

   This line looked crooked from the onset.  ESPN, the college football establishment and the dreaded, self-serving, pathetic playoff committee is in love with the Utah Utes.  As a result they are always lauded for their toughness and the stability long tenured head coach Kyle Wittingham brings to Salt Lake City.  We like Utah too, but two weeks ago, Utah lost at home in the Holy War against state rival BYU for their second loss of the year.  This was a tough, physical game! ....... and Utah was physically beaten at home by the Cougars in a close score that flattered the Utes' actual efforts.  Then a little luck for a bounce back.  The folding card-table Colorado Buffalos arrived at Rice-Eccles Stadium in the shadow of the Wasatch Mountains last week and  played an entire game as if they had given up on the season.  Coach Prime told the press as he headed into the locker room at halftime trailing 43-0! ....... that he was going to really tear into his team and inspire them with his best speech ever.  Well, it must have been a hell of a speech!  The players sure didn't listen, because they were all busy at halftime texting their agents to explore the best transfer portal options out of Colorado for next year.  They sure as hell did not come out motivated to play any kind of resistance football in the second half after HC Deon Sanders' dud of an inspirational halftime speech; there were more no-shows on the Buffalo sideline than a construction site in North Jersey.   

  When you lose 53-7 in the manner they did, it sure looks as if Coach Prime has lost the Buffalos.  They may unravel like Penn State.  I'm sure Neon Deon has a buyout of Brian Kelly - James Franklin - Jimbo Fisher proportions.  We watched this entire game, and it certainly appeared to us that Colorado gave a 35% effort, which undermines the supposition that the Utah Utes have suddenly become the reincarnation of the 1980's San Diego Chargers' Air-Coryell offence. 

 Colorado is the worst team in the Big 12 not named Oklahoma State.   

  This spread has climbed this week, mostly because of reputation and the fact that Cincinnati will be without their best running back, Evan Pryor (no relation to Cincinnati's greatest Pryor:  The late Aaron Pryor, the greatest junior welterweight of all time!).  However, Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker will fill in for Pryor; he has run for 466 yards this year, just 12 less yards than Pryor, so no big drop-off there.  This will be a physical, smashmouth game.  The Big 12 is probably the toughest conference to escape unscathed from.  It has parody in the top half of the conference that produces many close, hard-hitting games.  These two teams are mirror images of each other and they statistically are about the same.  This spread is just too high and is a direct result of overestimating Utah's ability after last week's whitewash of a disinterested Colorado team. 

 Cincinnati has the better record:  7-1 vs. Utah at 6-2 and they are on a seven game winning streak since their opening week, field goal loss to Nebraska.  The Bearcats are higher ranked:  #17 vs. #24.  They are very well coached under HC Scott Satterfield, just like the Utes under Mr. Wittingham.  Cincinnati is still in contention for the Big 12 title and Utah is not.  This game will more resemble the 24-21 loss to BYU on this field two week's ago than last week's cakewalk over Deon Sander's unmotivated roster of sloppy, disparate transfer portal refugees.   

  This could be the best game of the weekend and we will be playing the Bearcat money-line as well in a couple of parlays. 

 To once again paraphrase Gerrit Graham in the cult comedy Used Cars: "This spread is too high!" 

 Go Jays!

Bob: Teaser: Detroit -2.5 and Denver +7.5

This has been a different year in picking games.  Underdogs are 51-73 this year hitting just 41%. This is ridiculously  low. Bad teams getting stomped.

Detroit is coming off the bye and looks to be rolling. The Lions are third in the NFL scoring 30 points per game. Defensively the Lions are a top 10 defense too. Minnesota comes in after having lost Carson Wentz to a season long injury.  That means JJ McCarthy needs to be put back into the starting line-up. Minnesota was blasted last time out by the Chargers.  I like teasing this past the major numbers of 7,6, and 3.  Lions just need to win by a field goal.

The Denver and Texans game appears to be a defensive struggle.  Houston has the top rated defense in football and the Broncos have a Top 10 defense. The Over/Under in the game is 39. Both teams are coming off impressive wins. I believe the Broncos have the better offense behind Bo Nix and the play calling of Sean Payton. Just like the first teaser we now tease up past the major numbers of 3,6 and 7. Like getting over a touchdown in what appears to be a defensive struggle.