Stone Cold Locks
By Bob Gaughan
2024 record 56-35-1
2023 Record 82-71-3
2022 Record 68-41-2
2021 record 62-49
2020 record 52-52-4
2019 Record 62-41-2
2018 Record 72-50-3
Total: 452-338-15=57%
MR. OVER/UNDER: Chargers -3 over Texans
Before we talk about the playoffs, let’s look at some stats from this past season. Two teams went over the total 13-times this season. You’re probably not surprised that the Ravens were one of those teams, but would you believe the 5-12 Panthers also went over 13-times? Three teams, also with losing records, went over the total 11-times: Dallas, New England and San Francisco. Denver and Detroit lead the league ATS, covering 12-times. Four teams covered the spread 11-times, three of them, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philadelphia, are in the playoffs.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, it’s smart to check the weather for outdoor games this time of year. Beware, Baltimore and Philly may get a storm on Saturday, although the Philly game is on Sunday. Four new teams are in the playoffs this year: Denver, LA Chargers, Washington and Minnesota. Two of them, the Chargers & and the Vikings are favored on the road. The two Saturday games look to me like teams going in opposite directions.
Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore by 17, three weeks ago. Jackson has had another MVP season, and with the addition of Henry this year, the Ravens will be dangerous. Meanwhile last year’s Cinderella’s team, the Houston Texans, made the playoffs, playing in a very weak division. In fact, the Texans never scored more than 23-points against a team with a winning record this season, Meanwhile, the Chargers have the #1 scoring defense and the second fewest turnovers. Houston’s offensive line has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud, plus LA’s Justin Herbert is the better quarterback. I taking the Chargers at -2.5 If it moves to -3, I’m still taking it.
Man in Stripes: Ravens/ Bills/ Eagles ML PARLAY (+120)
Welcome to wildcard weekend in the NFL. Single elimination!! Let's get a little creative to win some plus money. We will go with 3 home teams that ALL have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations!! And we just need them to WIN!!
We start with the Ravens, Lamar Jackson, having another MVP season, and Derrick Henry has been a beast this year. This team is dangerous, a lot of weapons vs a Steeler team, that plainly have run out of gas. I love Tomlin, have cashed with him on over win totals for years, on the road as a dog, he's been money, but the last few games, just look different, Russell Wilson looks 36, defense getting run over. Steelers are 1 and done.
Broncos have been a great story, Bo Nix, has had a great story, under the teaching of Sean Payton. Taking a deep dive, throwing away last week's walk over vs the resting Chiefs, Denver is 1-7 SU vs teams .500 or better. Just too big of a step up in class for Broncos vs a team, like the Bills in Orchard Park. Josh Allen, undefeated at home this year. They have been beasts under Sean McDermott in the wildcard round. It continues Sunday, and I will be there to watch!!
Finally, let's go to the city of Brotherly Love. As of this writing, both QBs are questionable; I look for them both to play. The Packers are just a different team on the road, and also have seemed to wilt down the stretch and landed as the 7th seed in the. NFC. The Eagles have been solid all year, especially at home. Too many weapons, Barkley should have a field day against a very average run defense of the Packers. Another team that has the Super Bowl on their radar. Taking two 2 seeds, and a 3 seed. What can go wrong?? Enjoy the games!!
Mono: UNDER 47.5 BILLS-BRONCOS
Man these last few weeks have been tough for me. Let’s get back on the train and end the year on the run. Super Wild Card weekend has some fun games on tap. Big favorites on the board, a few toss ups. This week I’m going to play the under 47.5 in the Bills - Broncos game Sunday afternoon. The Bills offense has been historically great this year averaging over 3 points per drive. We’ve scored 30 + more than we haven’t. This Denver defense might be the better units we’ve faced all year. They rush and sack the QB and PS2 on the edge makes you think twice. We have Josh and I think he’ll have some success regardless of who’s across from them. With that said, I think this play is more about the Bills defense who has faced some harsh criticism the past couple of months. The rest from last week is key and this defense takes the ball away at the highest clip in the league. Bo Nix has had a great rookie season and may very well hang in this game … for a little while. I expect McDermott and Babich to devise a game plan to put the rest of the AFC on notice. I expect a few takeaways from the Bills here and Josh and the offense can still get to 30 if they keep Denver under 17. Everyone is on this over and think the Broncos will compete till the end. I humbly disagree. Bills defense shows up and the Bills roll 27-10. Take the under 47.5.
Brutal: Pittsburgh Steelers (+9.5) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Traditionally games between these two teams are close. These are divisional foes who know each other so well. I think everybody is overreacting to recent events with Pittsburgh sliding and Baltimore stabilizing a little bit.. Maybe I just do not share the enthusiasm for Lamar Jackson, who has traditionally underachieved in the post season. Yes, running back Barkley has added a new dimension to the Ravens; but All Pro WR Zay Flowers is out and maybe I am crazy, but I do not trust Lamar Jackson at QB in a playoff game much more than an old Russell Wilson, but I have a hard time believing that Pittsburgh is going to get blown up again. I would like to see Mike Tomlin open up the offensive playbook, put Justin Fields into the game, read-option the Ravens and throw a deceptive deep pass on that suspect Baltimore secondary.
To cover this though we will need the Steeler defense to step up. I am making a spiritual outreach to the Steeler Defense of the distant past from back in the 1970s to keep this game close; the Super Bowl teams with the legacy, ....... the Steel Curtain! Mean Joe Green, L.C. Greenwood, Ernie Holmes, Dwight White, .....linebackers with conviction, the two Jacks! Ham and Lambert! PK Roy Gerela and his Gorillas!.... and the most underrated coach of all time: Chuck Knoll
A spread of 9.5 is a lot of points for a playoff game.
Bob: DOUBLE DOWN Chargers -3 over Houston
This isn’t the same Texans team that started the season off hot and beat the Bills early in the season. This team has gone 5-6 done the stretch and their offense isn’t the same since losing Diggs and Dell. Stroud has regressed this year and has shown signs of a sophomore slump. The Texans offense line makes too many mistakes and the team in general makes too many mistakes. The chargers are the opposite of that. I’m not a fan of Jim Harbaugh but he can coach. The Chargers ended the season on a three-game
winning streak. The Chargers have played well on the road all year going 7-2 ATS on the road. I get the better defense, better coach and better quarterback and only have to lay three points. I’m in.
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