Stone Cold Locks-Wild Card Weekend

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 65-62-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 379-294-14=56%

Mr. Over/Under: KC- Miami Under 43.5

It looks like Mother Nature has finally made up her mind that it’s time for winter. Weather won’t be a concern for 3 of the indoor games, but it definitely will for the games in KC and Buffalo. Temperatures in KC will be frigid while it will be cold and windy in Buffalo with snow possible. The cold will make the ball harder to catch & kick. The distance for a field goal will be drastically shortened, which means either there will be more 4th down tries or more punts. Miami’s QB has never played an NFL game in such cold, and KC’s defense has stepped up this year. I expect the total (44.5) to go down as it gets closer to game time. So grab the under now while you can. It also would make a great 7-point teaser parley, at 51.5 paired with Dallas  -.5. Finally, if before game time, it appears that Highmark stadium (the Bill’s Stadium) will be hit with lake effect snow, grab the under as well……and stay warm!  

Extra:

Teaser: Under KC-Miami and Dallas

And Under 36.5 in Bills-Steelers game

Man in Stripes: Steelers +10.5 over Bills

I’m channeling my inner Mr. Over/Under, it’s my turn on the Jim Cantore sound alike!!!! Looks like it could be Brutal out there at Highmark Stadium with 20-30mph winds and lake effect snow before and during the game. Wind chill could be in the single digits. The over/under has gone down to 36. Let’s buy the hook. You have the two slowest teams in terms of getting plays off. You saw last week in Baltimore in a monsoon the Pittsburgh game plan.  It was a steady diet of Najee Harris. All Mike Tomlin wants to do is keep it close and find a big play at the end. The Bills are 0-6 ATS this year when giving up more than one score.  They just seem to walk through some of the first halves. This smells like a 13-10 game. The weather is the true equalizer and a MAJOR advantage to the Steelers!!! The Bills are by far the more talented team by are not designed to play in this weather. A finesse RB, their OL has been suspect recently. Love the Steelers and all these points. I’ll be there!! I better start dressing right away!!!

2 more for Wild Card Weekend!!

Dallas 1H -4.5 Dak and company on fire.

KC-4 too many injuries, not temperature for Fins at Arrowhead….I think we see Mr. Mahomes in his first road start next week in the 716.

Mono: Browns -2 over Texans

Super wild card weekend and the first game has the number one defense heading to Houston to take on rookie QB CJ Stroud. The Texans begin the CJ Stroud-Demarco Ryans era as the AFC South champs. What a start. Stroud has thoroughly impressed and stepped up on the road last week and with a little help was able to secure the division. They now welcome the Browns vaunted defense and old-timer Joe Flacco. Flacco has turned back the clock since he got the call and I expect him to continue that trend. It’s playoff time and he’s done it before almost in the exact same scenario. He has the best defense in the NFL just like he had when he won a Super Bowl with the Ravens. Flacco will do what he has to do but the pick here is with the defense and the challenge it poses for Stroud.  Rookie QB’s historically don’t do much in this spot especially when facing the number one defense. This Texans team has overachieved and good for them. The future is bright. The Cinderella run ends this weekend. The Browns will shutdown the Texans run game and force Stroud to make mistakes. The Browns set up a date with the Ravens and just find themselves in Buffalo by the end of the month. Browns win and cover 21-10!!!

Brutal:  Tampa Bay +3 over Philadelphia

How can anyone think the Eagles should be giving points to anyone on the road right now?  The problem with the Eagles is something we saw in last year’s Super Bowl. The Eagles didn’t get pressure in Mahomes all game. They had great stats last year. This year the Philly defensive line is doing nothing. Now let’s look at the Eagles offense where Jalen Hurts hasn’t been able to throw all week. He’s been going through practice but hasn’t thrown yet as I write this pick. AJ Brown is injured as well.  The Eagles have a ton of injuries.  Baker Mayfield has played better recently.  He’s a gutty performer on a gutty team.  You get the home field advantage against a team that is imploding in front of our very eyes. What’s not to like!

Philly: Double down: Browns -2 over Texans

Houston was my lock last week. It was put up or shut up time and CJ Stroud started the game with a 75-yard touchdown to Nico Collins. They were a little shaky down the stretch but were able to hold off Minshew and the Colts. The problem for Houston is they are running into a red hot Cleveland Browns team led by veteran QB Joe Flacco. The Browns have a lights out defense; good running game and a gunslinger in Flacco that is ready to dice up the Texans defense. I don’t see the Texans being able to keep up with the Browns.

Bob: Detroit/Rams Over 51.5

The weather is going to be such a factor this weekend; I’ve decided to go with a game that is going to be played in a dome.  I like both offenses in this one.  Both offenses are ranked in the top 10.  I think both Quarterbacks are going to be extremely motivated.  First you have Matthew Stafford going back to Detroit where he played for so many years.  Then you have Jared Goff looking to show that he is a better QB than Stafford.  Goff is historically a better quarterback at home than on the road. The Rams have a ton of weapons to go with Stafford.  The Rams have a quality RB Williams and the pair of solid WR’s in Nacua and Kupp. I’m not sure who will win this game.  I think this is going to be a great game where points are going to be scored.