Stone Cold Locks AFC/NFC Championships

Stone Cold Locks 

By Bob Gaughan

2023 Record 71-68-3

2022 Record 68-41-2

2021 record 62-49

2020 record  52-52-4

2019 Record  62-41-2

2018 Record 72-50-3

Total: 385-300-14=56%

Mr. Over/Under: San Francisco and Detroit Over 50.5

Let me first share a few facts about this weekend’s NFL Championship games. The home teams Against the Spread (ATS) are 7-3 in the last 10-games. The last 4 times the Chiefs have played the Ravens, the 2-teams have combined for at least 51-points. The last three match ups between San Fran and Detroit have gone over. However, the 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. The weather this Sunday in San Francisco should not be a factor, with temps in the 60’s. My thoughts are, if you’d like to place a 7-point teaser parley, take Detroit with the points and the over. I also like KC with the points and the over as well. However for a straight bet this week, I’m going with the over in the San Fran/Detroit game. As of this writing, it’s hard to say if Deebo Samual is going to play, but both teams have enough weapons to make this game high scoring. Detroit has the momentum and a coach that’s aggressive. San Fran has the experience and talent. I see this game going over 50.5.  

Man in Stripes: Kc/Balt 2nd half Under 21.5

There are certain times where blind betting is the way to go. The service academies’ unders in college football, new coach theory (2-0 this week with Islanders and Bucks). This one might fit the bill. How about 17-2!!!! Yes, KC is 17-2 second half unders this year!!! Got lucky last week, fumble on goal line, Bass wide right. BUT, most of the time it is the right side.  Chiefs’ offense is down, playing slower, less snaps. Fast forward to Sunday, weather is supposed to be awful, lots of rain and wind. Game script, spread 3.5, tight game, Ravens will run the ball, that’s where you can hurt the KC D!!!! Baltimore is 9-6 to second half unders and is top 5 in slowest running plays in the league.  Might have to hold your nose a bit with Mahomes/Jackson but numbers don’t lie. The game stays close, we should be good!

2 Others for Sunday

Goff over 35.5 attempts

6 point teaser- KC +9.5/ Det/SF Over 45

Mono: Jared Goff Over 23.5 Completions

We missed last week on the over because of costly Jordan Love turnovers. I should have taken the pouring rain into consideration that hurt the Packers on the final drive. We try to finish the year strong with the last two picks. I go back to the 49ers pass defense.  Take away an Aaron Jones 53 yard run and Jones averaged 3.2 yards per carry.  PFF ranked the Lions offensive line as the second best line in the league. This may open up holes for Gibbs and Montgomery and maybe be contrary to my pick but hear me out. The Lions defense has been their Achilles heel all year.  Ben Johnson and this offense have no problem scoring. But the Lions defense has problems getting stops. Pair that with a stout 49ers run defense and the Lions will have a lot of play action passes and short completions. Goff should get his number. There’s a Super Bowl berth on the line and the Lions will be ready to empty the tank.  I expect Goff to air it out 40 times and we should get 24 completions by the late third or early fourth quarter.

Brutal:  Detroit +7 Over San Francisco

I’m breaking my self-imposed rule of betting on the same team in back to back weeks. I like Detroit again this week and think they have a good chance to win this game out right.  Detroit is on a roll the last month. San Francisco on the other hand isn’t playing their best ball.  They were lucky to beat Green Bay last week. The Lions are solid on both lines and think the Lions are peaking at the right time. Brock Purdy should have thrown two pick sixes last week. Purdy doesn’t look great when Deebo is banged and as was McCaffrey. Both are not 100 percent. If Detroit wins The Super Bowl betting in Detroit might surpass the record in the city when Thomas Hearns fought Sugar Ray Leonard. The city bettors lost a lot of money on that one. The Lions have a chance to make their first Super Bowl. Dan Campbell leaves it all on the line and they at least get the cover.

Philly: Kansas City/Baltimore Under 44.5

They say defense wins championships. These games are going to slow down. I expect a SLUGFEST in the Baltimore-Kansas City game. Mahomes and the Chiefs haven’t been clicking all year and the Ravens defense has been lights out. Smith and Queen in the middle should contain the run game. The Ravens always find a way to get to the quarterback. I also suspect the Ravens struggle on offense. This one will go down to the wire and points will be at a premium.  The weather forecast isn’t great either and that should help keep the scoring down.

Bob: Ravens -3.5 over Kansas City

The year of Harbaugh continues with John taking the Ravens to the Super Bowl. I liked this Baltimore team and then the Vegas line confirmed it for me. I believe this line has Vegas begging you to take the Chiefs. The success that KC had in Buffalo last week will not work this week.  KC took advantage of the Bills LB’s AJ Klein and Dodson.  That isn’t happening this week with Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith.  The Bills defensive line didn’t show up.  Not sure why but the Bills weren’t able to take advantage of the Chiefs poor offensive tackles.  I don’t see the Chiefs offensive line dominating this Ravens defensive line. On the other hand I can see the Ravens controlling the ball like the Bills did last week.  The Bills had long drives and I can see the Ravens doing the same thing this Sunday. Willie Gay being banged up hurts the spy on Lamar Jackson.  This KC team came out of the Bills game banged up. To me, I’m sure they will all play but Gay, Kelce, McDuffie, Thuney and Rice all didn’t look 100 percent by the end of the game.  Tough spot for KC and go to what was the best team all year in the AFC. I like Baltimore to get the job done at home.