TONY’S TAKE – 2025 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF FIRST ROUND PREVIEW

by Tony Fiorello

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 6, 2024: The Stanley Cup is staged for a visit by staff members of the Nevada Congressional Delegation at Capitol Hill on March 6, 2024 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by John McCreary/NHLI via Getty Images)

It’s the most wonderful time of the year.

Typically that’s a phrase one would hear around Christmas. But for hockey fans, there’s no better time of year to enjoy the game than the playoffs. With storylines galore and the intensity at an all-time high, witnessing 16 teams battling for the right to lift Lord Stanley’s Cup is a sight to behold.

Throughout the postseason, Buffalo Sports Page will provide you with series previews and predictions from the start of round one – which began this weekend – through the finals. Previews will become more in-depth as the playoffs roll along, but for now here is our analysis of the first round.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Washington Capitals (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (WC2)

QUEENS, NY - APRIL 6: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) is all alone as he breaks the NHL scoring record with 895 goals during the second period of an NHL hockey game at UBS Arena in Queens, NY on April 6, 2025. (Photo by John McDonnell/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

One year after barely sneaking into the postseason, the Caps have taken everyone by surprise by ending the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Second in goals scored (13th on the power play) and ninth in goals allowed (fifth on the penalty kill), Washington is led by the usual suspects – the NHL’S greatest goal-scorer in Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson and John Carlson – and talents like Dylan Strome, Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Ailaksei Protas have bolstered their depth. Defensively Carlson is now joined by Jakob Chychrun and Rasmus Sandin, and Charlie Lindgren and Logan Thompson are holding down the fort in goal for coach Spencer Carberry, general manager Chris Patrick and president of hockey operations Brian MacLellan.

MONTREAL, QUEBEC - APRIL 14: Juraj Slafkovský #20 of the Montreal Canadiens celebrates his goal with teammates Lane Hutson #48, Cole Caufield #13 and Nick Suzuki #14 during the third period against the Chicago Blackhawks at Bell Centre on April 14, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Reuben Polansky-Shapiro/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Montreal Canadiens, led by coach Martin St. Louis, general manager Kent Hughes and president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton, are in the playoffs for the first time since their 2021 run to the Stanley Cup Final, and they’ve been red-hot as of late. In fact, Montreal became just the fourth team ever to make the playoffs when in last or second-last place in the overall standings on December 1st in the last 30 years. They’re also the youngest team ever (average age: 25.95) to reach the postseason. Led by holdovers from the ’21 team like Brendan Gallagher, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Joel Armia and Josh Anderson while blending in new faces such as Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovsky, Patrik Laine, Ivan Demidov, Kaiden Guhle and Mike Matheson, the Habs certainly don’t lack talent. Sam Montembeault is the starter in net for a Canadiens team that, while middle of the pack in most categories, was ninth on the penalty kill.

PREDICTION

Capitals in five. Montreal barely squeaked into the postseason and Washington, on paper, is the much better team. Although the Habs have been in this position before – think 2010 when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to upset Washington in the first round – it’s not likely that lightning will strike twice.

Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. New Jersey Devils (3)

RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 13: Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho (20) celebrates with teammates after scoring during the NHL game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Carolina Hurricanes on April 13, 2025 at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Katherine Gawlik/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

For the first time since the team moved to Raleigh from Hartford, Carolina has reached the postseason for a seventh consecutive year. General manager Eric Tulsky and coach Rod Brind’Amour lead a team characterized by a combination of guys entering their prime (Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov) and veterans (Brent Burns, Jordan Staal, Dmitry Orlov, Jack Roslovic, Jaccob Slavin and Shayne Gostisbehere). While ninth in goals scored but just 25th on the power play, that mix has churned out positive results via Brind’Amour’s stifling defensive system (10th in goals allowed, first on the penalty kill) and the goaltending duo of Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov have brought stability to the Canes’ crease.

MONTREAL, CANADA - JANUARY 25: Nico Hischier #13 of the New Jersey Devils celebrates his goal with teammate Jesper Bratt #63 during the first period against the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre on January 25, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)

Back in the postseason after a one-year absence, the New Jersey Devils are paced by explosive young talents in Jack Hughes (out for the season following shoulder surgery), Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt. Dawson Mercer, Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier provide more scoring threats while Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula and Ondrej Palat provide experienced depth. Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes are two of pro hockey’s best scoring threats from the blueline and they, along with Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, Brian Dumoulin and Jonathan Kovacevic are counted on for good defensive play. Veteran Jacob Markstrom holds down the fort in goal for a team that was fifth in goals allowed, second in killing penalties and third with the man advantage but coach Sheldon Keefe and general manager Tom Fitzgerald’s team was just 20th overall in scoring.

PREDICTION

Hurricanes in six. It’s a tall task for anyone to overcome the loss of an elite player like Hughes, and the ‘Canes will accordingly shut down the Devils.

Toronto Maple Leafs (1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC1)

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - MARCH 10: Auston Matthews #34 speaks to Mitch Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the second period of a game against the Utah Hockey Club at Delta Center on March 10, 2025 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

The Leafs have reached the postseason nine years in a row and led by their core group of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. This roster is a high-flying group that can score in bunches (as evidenced by being seventh in scoring and ninth on the power play) and is augmented by Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton, Max Domi and Matthew Knies. Defensively the Leafs are paced by Morgan Rielly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit and Chris Tanev – they’ve helped Toronto end the regular season eighth in goals surrendered but a so-so 17th on the penalty kill. Coach Craig Berube and general manager Brad Treliving have one of the league’s most underrated goaltenders in Anthony Stolarz and he is backed up by the capable Joseph Woll.

VANCOUVER, CANADA - DECEMBER 21: Jake Sanderson #85 of the Ottawa Senators celebrates with teammates Brady Tkachuk #7 and. Tim Stützle #18 after scoring the game winning goal against the Vancouver Canucks during the overtime period in NHL action on December, 21, 2024 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The Senators defeats the Vancouver Canucks 5-4. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)

The Ottawa Senators are in the playoffs for the first time since their run to the Eastern Conference Final in 2017, and they have a young core that helped them get here. That group – made up of Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson and Jake Sanderson – isn’t shouldering the load either, they’re supported by veterans such as Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot and David Perron. Although coach Travis Green and general manager Steve Staios’ group was average in most categories, they finished the regular season a respectable 11th on the power play and the inconsistent Linus Ullmark is their starter in net.

PREDICTION

Leafs in five. Although Toronto has won just one postseason series since 2004, the Sens are too inexperienced when it comes to this time of the season. The Leafs will take advantage of that youth.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs. Florida Panthers (WC3)

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 15: Victor Hedman #77 of the Tampa Bay Lightning celebrates with Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 against the Vancouver Canucks during the second period at the Amalie Arena on October 15, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

A powerhouse in the Eastern Conference over the last 15 years (and former back-to-back Cup winners), the Lightning remain a threat thanks to the leadership of general manager Julie BriseBois and coach Jon Cooper. Over the years homegrown faces like Brayden Point, Ross Colton, Yanni Gourde and Anthony Cirelli and imports like Mikhail Sergachev, Barclay Goodrow, Blake Coleman, Ryan McDonagh and Nick Paul joined Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn to build a juggernaut. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains as one of the best goaltenders in the NHL and Victor Hedman is still one of the league’s best rearguards.

The losses of Stamkos, Sergachev, Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Colton, Coleman and Goodrow over the last few offseasons were made up by BriseBois bringing in veterans with Cup rings like Jake Guentzel and younger pieces in Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul – resulting in Cooper’s bunch not missing a beat. In 2024-25 Tampa Bay was first in goals for and fourth in goals against, fifth on the power play and sixth in killing penalties.

Florida Panthers center Aleksander Barkov celebrates after winning the Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida, on June 24, 2024. (John McCall/South Florida Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Florida is playoff-bound for the sixth straight year (the first time in franchise history that’s happened), and the Panthers are coming off back-to-back trips to the Final and a Cup win to boot. Coach Paul Maurice and general manager Bill Zito lead a team bolstered at forward by Selke Trophy-winner Alex Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, and supplemented by quality depth in Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand. Defensively the Panthers are held down by Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola. Sergei Bobrovsky remains one of the NHL’s better options in net for a team that was 15th in scoring and 14th on the power play, but 10th on the penalty kill and seventh in goals given up.

PREDICTION

Panthers in seven. As great as the Bolts used to be, the Panthers are now the dominant team in the Sunshine State. This is also the fourth time in the last five years these two divisional rivals have met in the postseason.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Winnipeg Jets (1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)

TORONTO, ON - DECEMBER 23 - Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele (55) congratulates Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) after the game as the Toronto Maple Leafs fall to the Winnipeg Jets 5-2 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. December 23, 2024. Steve Russell/Toronto Star (Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff and new coach Scott Arniel typically get the most out of Winnipeg’s roster and this season has been no exception. Most of the Jets’ core over the last few years– Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers – remain and are supported by names such as Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Cole Perfetti. Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk have developed into two of the NHL’s better defensemen, and Connor Hellebuyck is the favorite to win a second straight Vezina award as the league’s best goaltender (and third of his career). Winnipeg ended the regular season winning the first President’s Trophy in franchise history and had the NHL’s best power play and led the league in goals allowed while being third in scoring and 13th on the penalty kill.

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 07: Pavel Buchnevich #89, Robert Thomas #18 and Jordan Kyrou #25 congratulate Brayden Schenn #10 of the St. Louis Blues after his goal during the third period of a game against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on April 07, 2024 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

After not qualifying for the playoffs two years in a row, the St. Louis Blues are back in the tournament and playing well – since the Four Nations Face Off, the Blues have been one the league’s hottest teams. General manager Doug Armstrong and new coach Jim Montgomery lead a team that was once held down by veterans such as Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko and David Perron and has now been turned over to Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway and Colton Parayko. Jordan Binnington remains in goal, and while St. Louis ranks in the middle of the pack in scoring and power play percentage they were a respectable 11th in goals allowed and an unsightly 27th on the penalty kill.

PREDICTION

Jets in six. While the Blues deserve a lot of credit for willing themselves into the playoffs, they’ve run in a buzzsaw and Winnipeg is deeper and better than St. Louis is.

Dallas Stars (2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (3)

ELMONT, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 23: Jason Robertson #21 and Jake Oettinger #29 of the Dallas Stars celebrate a victory of the New York Islanders at UBS Arena on February 23, 2025 in Elmont, New York. (Photo by Michael Mooney/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Dallas Stars have reached the postseason for the eighth time in the last 12 years. Older forwards like captain Jamie Benn (35), Tyler Seguin (33) and Matt Duchene (34) are still steady point producers as they age while guys with fresher legs like recently acquired Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnson are key contributors. Defensemen Miro Heiskanen (currently injured), Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell have continued to perform well on the back end while 26-year-old Jake Oettinger has been stellar in goal for coach Peter DeBoer and general manager Jim Nill. The Stars ended the regular season third in goals, sixth in goals allowed and fourth on the penalty kill, but were just 17th with the man advantage.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - APRIL 02: Cale Makar #8 of the Colorado Avalanche celebrates with teammate Nathan MacKinnon #29 after scoring a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the third period at the United Center on April 02, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Three years removed from winning the Cup, the Colorado Avalanche – blessed with studs like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews and captain Gabriel Landeskog (who has returned after missing most of the last three years with knee injuries) – can certainly light up scoreboards. They’re no slouches in their own end either, as names like Josh Manson and Samuel Girard make life easier for coach Jared Bednar, general manager Chris MacFarland and president of hockey operations Joe Sakic. Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin, Martin Necas and trade deadline pickup Brock Nelson are reliable supporting characters and career backup Mackenzie Blackwood is now the Avs’ starter in net. Colorado was sixth in scoring, 11th defensively, eighth on the power play and 12th in killing off penalties.

PREDICTION

Avs in seven. The Stars have had a good year and having someone in net as reliable as Oettinger will always give you a chance to win on most nights. But Colorado has better depth amongst their skaters.

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1)

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 07: Tomas Hertl #48 of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates his empty net goal with Mark Stone #61 against the San Jose Sharks in the third period at SAP Center on January 07, 2025 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

The Golden Knights are again one of the better outfits in the Western Conference. Vegas general manager Kelly McCrimmon and president of hockey operations George McPhee have built their core group with many experienced and quality pros – names such as Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo, Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, Noah Hanifan and Tomas Hertl have all been acquired from outside the organization. Coach Bruce Cassidy keeps this team on course while Adin Hill has become a reliable starting goaltender over the last three years. This team was fifth and third in goals for and against, respectively – while they were second-best with the man advantage, they were just 26th on the penalty kill.

ST PAUL, MINNESOTA - APRIL 15: Kirill Kaprizov #97 of the Minnesota Wild smiles while handling the puck in overtime of a game against the Anaheim Ducks at Xcel Energy Center on April 15, 2025 in St Paul, Minnesota. (Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)

Minnesota is back in the playoffs after a one-year absence and general manager Bill Guerin and coach John Hynes have iced a solid group. Kirill Kaprizov remains the team’s best player and has been surrounded by many veterans, including Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno, Marcus Johansson and Matt Boldy. On defense the Wild are still anchored by Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin and future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury back up starter Filip Gustavsson in goal. While Minny was middle of the pack in goals allowed, they struggled to score goals (ranking just 25th in that category) and their special teams were atrocious.

PREDICTION

Golden Knights in six. While the Wild have a good roster, they haven’t proven they can succeed in postseason play and they also don’t have much depth. Meanwhile the majority of Vegas’ lineup was with the team when they won the Cup two years ago – that battle-tested experience should help them immensely at this time of year.

Los Angeles Kings (2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (3)

ST PAUL, MINNESOTA - MARCH 17: Adrian Kempe #9 of the Los Angeles Kings celebrates with Anze Kopitar #11, Kevin Fiala #22, Andrei Kuzmenko #96 and Drew Doughty #8 after scoring a goal during the first period of a game against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center on March 17, 2025 in St Paul, Minnesota. (Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)

Back in the playoffs for the fourth straight year, the Los Angeles Kings (guided by general manager Rob Blake and coach Jim Hiller) have rebuilt themselves into a younger outfit following their two Cups in three years from 2012-14. While veterans like Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Trevor Lewis remain from the old guard, other names such as Philip Danault, Andrei Kuzmenko, Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield, Trevor Moore and Kevin Fiala have become equally as important to the club’s success. Darcy Kuemper is the Kings’ new starter in net and has been the best option they’ve had at that spot since Jonathan Quick was in his prime. While L.A. was second-best in goals allowed and eighth in killing penalties, they were only 14th in scoring and 27th with the man advantage.

EDMONTON, CANADA - MARCH 6: Leon Draisaitl #29, Connor McDavid #97, Evan Bouchard #2, Zach Hyman #18 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins #93 of the Edmonton Oilers celebrate Draisaitl's second-period goal against the Montreal Canadiens during the game at Rogers Place on March 6, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Leila Devlin/Getty Images)

Edmonton continues to blossom in the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era, and the all-world duo (who each had over 100 points again) isn’t doing it alone. With Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Adam Henrique and Corey Perry in tow, the Oilers have good secondary scoring threats. The team is held down on the rear by defenders Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm (who is currently injured). Stuart Skinner is the starter in net for head coach Kris Knoblauch and new general manager Stan Bowman. The Oilers, for the first time in a long time, don’t have an elite power play – they were just 12th in that category this year (which is low by their standards) and they were 16th on the penalty kill while 11th in scoring and 16th defensively.

PREDICTION

Kings in seven. While Edmonton has beaten them in the playoffs three years in a row (and came within one game of winning the Cup a year ago), the 11th all-time meeting between these two franchises will see L.A. get over the hump due to the King’s superior goaltending, defensive play and depth.