TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF 49ERS-LIONS

by Tony Fiorello

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 12: Head Coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers shakes hands with Head Coach Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions after the game at Ford Field on September 12, 2021 in Detroit, Michigan. The 49ers defeated the Lions 41-33. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

This season’s NFC Championship Game will take place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California as the Detroit Lions will face the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s what you should know:

SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 25: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates with Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers during an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens at Levi's Stadium on December 25, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

49ERS’ OFFENSE DEADLY

Like his father Mike before him, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan relies on an offense that is West Coast-based in its passing game and is very creative in its ability to attack matchups. It also utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs and he has rode this approach to four conference championship game appearances and an NFC title in 2019.

The 49ers’ philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are All-Pro Trent Williams (one of the NFL’s most agile left tackles who excels at getting out on the perimeter on screens), Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford, Colton McKivitz and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, Shanahan will also use power plays, traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic. This system has made many a star out of running backs for decades and most of San Francisco’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end).

The reason why the 49ers like to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while also taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and creating more vanilla coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”

In years past these concepts by the Bay were usually carried out by veterans like Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Matt Breida, but neither of these backs had the ability to affect defensive gameplans both on the ground and through the air. Enter former Carolina Panther Christian McCaffrey, who four years ago became just the third back in NFL annals to have both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season (Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig are the others). Acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for draft pick compensation, the explosive McCaffrey is arguably the most talented running back either Shanahan has had play in this scheme, and he and speedy backup Elijah Mitchell have wreaked havoc for the 49ers.

In the past, the guy handing the ball off to them was quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Yet he was rarely healthy or consistent, prompting Shanahan to draft the physically gifted but raw Trey Lance from North Dakota State in 2021. Lance, due to ineffective play, was surpassed on the depth chart by Brock Purdy.

A seventh-round pick last year out of Iowa State (and 2022’s “Mr. Irrelevant” aka the last selection of the draft), Purdy has become a revelation. While not possessing great physical traits, Purdy is mobile, accurate and understands how to manipulate defenders in pass coverage. He also processes coverages quickly and has good anticipation.

San Francisco’s weapons in the passing game are dangerous. Four-time All-Pro tight end George Kittle is one of the league’s best at his position and is dominant both in the receiving game and at the point of attack. Speedsters Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They also are liberally used by Shanahan in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities, and Samuel is a dangerous ball carrier on reverses and end-arounds. He will also sometimes line up at running back (backups Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III sometimes get in on the action as well).

Similar to his predecessors, Shanahan will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them additional space to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions (especially to create false reads and favorable angles in the running game) and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.

As per usual, San Francisco had good production in 2023. They finished the regular season second in total yards, fourth in passing, and third in rushing and scoring. Additionally, they were among the league’s best in allowing sacks (tied for sixth).

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 17: Nick Bosa #97 and Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers run in action during a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on December 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

SAN FRANCISCO’S DEFENSE EVOLVING

When Shanahan was hired by San Francisco he brought in Robert Saleh, a longtime protégé of Gus Bradley, as his defensive coordinator. Bradley was one of the original architects (along with Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll) of the Seattle Seahawks’ fabled Cover Three zone defensive scheme which they employed en route to back-to-back NFC championships and a Super Bowl title between 2013-14.

Saleh has since become the head honcho of the New York Jets and his protégé, DeMeco Ryans, also parlayed success running San Francisco’s defense into a head coaching job with the Houston Texans. Their successor is the well-traveled Steve Wilks, who has kept the 49ers’ system intact but has put his own spin on the team’s playbook. Their base coverage remains Cover Three – with deep zone coverage from the outside cornerbacks, one safety patrolling centerfield and another near the line of scrimmage – but they have mixed in more split safety concepts like Two, Four, Six and Two-Man Under to not get beaten by deep crossing patterns.

The prototype for Cover Three-style corners has been for them to have length and an ability to excel in press coverage – so the 49ers have made sure that three corners on their roster (Charvarius Ward, Isaiah Oliver and Ambry Thomas) are at least 6’0”. Deommodore Lenoir is the starter opposite Ward, and Ward has become one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. Tashaun Gipson, Ji’Ayir Brown and the injured Talanoa Hufanga are the starters at safety.

The 49ers have an excellent pair of linebackers for their nickel packages in underrated sideline-to-sideline playmaker Dre Greenlaw and one of the league’s best second-level defenders in the speedy Fred Warner. In front of them is one of the NFL’s best and deepest defensive lines made up of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Javon Hargrave, Chase Young, Randy Gregory and the injured Clelin Ferrell.

Their linemen are adept at controlling one or two gaps when defending the run, and Wilks – like Saleh and Ryans before him – uses one or two of his linemen to two-gap while the rest of the front seven will control just one, which eliminates any potential holes for opposing running backs to go through. Wilks will also have his linemen liberally execute stunts, twists and slants to open up one-on-one opportunities in pass rush situations and especially out of five-man tilted fronts.

The 49ers ended 2023 eighth in total yards given up, third against the run, 14th versus the pass and third in points allowed (not to mention tied for seventh in sacks and tied for fifth in takeaways).

This year will see San Francisco play in their 19th NFC Championship Game (the most all-time), their third straight appearance (the first NFC team to do so since they did it from 2011-13), their seventh in the last 13 years and fourth in the past five seasons. The 49ers are vying to get to the Super Bowl for an eighth time.

Additionally San Francisco has gone 21 straight years while either missing the playoffs entirely or, at bare minimum, making it to the NFC title game.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JANUARY 14: Sam LaPorta #87 of the Detroit Lions celebrates his touchdown with Jared Goff #16 during the second quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs at Ford Field on January 14, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

LIONS’ OFFENSE PRODUCTIVE

Before the 2021 NFL season, new general manager Brad Holmes – originally from the Los Angeles Rams – sought to instill toughness in his team by hiring Dan Campbell as Detroit’s head coach. Campbell, an 11-year NFL veteran and former tight end (not to mention an ex-Lion), has helped the Motor City’s pro franchise make progress in that area and in results on the field, as evidenced by the Lions winning their division for the first time in 30 years and winning a playoff game for the first time since 1991 (and just their second playoff victory of the Super Bowl era).

Quarterback Jared Goff, the first overall pick in the 2016 draft who Holmes brought to Detroit in exchange for Matthew Stafford, is very good when it comes to the timing and rhythm portion of the passing game. He has good synchronicity with his receivers, is accurate, intelligent and throws a better deep ball than people realize. However, when under pressure Goff’s footwork can get a bit sloppy and isn’t always at ease when bodies are flying around him.

Goff is also sometimes a tad late when it comes to exploiting coverages. According to USA Today’s Doug Farrar, “(Goff) throws with anticipation to a degree, but he’s often throwing guys open when they’re already open, meaning that he’s throwing them closed and allowing defensive backs to jump and pick routes. The problem gets worse when his receivers are challenged.” 

Fortunately for Goff – who has joined Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Brett Favre as the only signal callers to reach a conference championship game with multiple teams since 2000 – he has a talented cadre of wideouts that execute a scheme that’s similar to the one he had with the Rams – one with plenty of under-center play-action, high-low concepts and downfield option routes. Amon-Ra St. Brown has cemented himself as one of the game’s better receivers while sharing targets with D.J. Chark (currently injured), Josh Reynolds and former first round pick Jameson Williams. Rookie Sam LaPorta, one of the league’s most physically gifted players at his position, has taken over as the starting tight end following the trade of T.J. Hockenson last year to the Minnesota Vikings.

A year after employing a solid running back tandem in Jamall Williams and De’Andre Swift, Detroit let the two walk in free agency and promptly replaced them with ex-Chicago Bear David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. The two are frequently used on the field at the same time (also known as a “pony” package) and are a classic thunder-and-lightning combination. Montgomery runs with power and has a nose for the end zone while Gibbs has been compared to the New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara. Quick and explosive with good balance and receiving skills, Gibbs complements Montgomery well, as they helped Detroit become the only team in the NFL with two backs who scored at least 10 rushing touchdowns apiece.

The two run behind an offensive line that has relied mostly on gap schemes and is anchored by three former first round picks in Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell. Guards Jonah Jackson (out for Sunday’s game) and Graham Glasgow complete one of the NFL’s best line combinations.

Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson have led the Lions to top-five finishes on this side of the ball in back-to-back years. Third in total yards, second in passing, fifth in rushing and scoring, Detroit has certainly been dangerous offensively.

In a scheduling oddity, the Lions have played outdoors just once in their last 12 games – all were in a dome, and the one game they did participate in outside was a loss to the Bears. Also, after beating two former first overall draft picks in Stafford and Baker Mayfield, Goff will now take on a “Mr. Irrelevant” in Brock Purdy.

Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2) celebrate after a play during the second half of the NFC Wild Card Playoffs between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Sunday, January 14, 2024. (Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

DETROIT’S DEFENSE NOT AS STELLAR, BUT SOLID SCHEMATICALLY

Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn – a former NFL cornerback for 15 years – has had his hands full in trying to turn around this unit. The Lions’ defense – which does employ some well-designed pressure concepts – hasn’t performed consistently over the last couple of years and 2023 was no exception as Detroit ended the season 19th in total defense, 27th against the pass, 23rd in points allowed and sacks, and 18th in takeaways. However, they were second against the run.

It's not as if Glenn’s charges are completely bereft of talent though. Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, a product of the nearby University of Michigan, has performed well in his first two NFL seasons with a combined 21 sacks (averaging 10.5 a year).

Hutchinson is joined on the team’s defensive line with Josh Paschal, Alim McNeill and Benito Jones, and the team’s top linebackers are ex-Saint Alex Anzalone, Malcom Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes (rookie Jack Campbell has also gotten playing time). On the back end, Detroit is held down by Cameron Sutton, Kindle Vindor and rookie Brian Branch at cornerback. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, one of the game’s rangiest and smartest centerfielders who can also play in the slot, holds down the fort at safety along with Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

This season is just the second time the Detroit Lions have reached the NFC title game and it’s their first appearance since a loss to Washington in 1991. They last won a championship in 1957 against the Cleveland Browns. It’s also the first playoff meeting between San Francisco and Detroit since 1983, where the 49ers defeated the Lions 24-23 in the divisional round – their only other matchup (and their last road playoff win) came in ’57 when San Francisco downed Detroit in the Western Conference Final.