by Tony Fiorello
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Welcome to Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ 12th game of 2024 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the San Francisco 49ers. Here’s what you should know:
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 10: Deebo Samuel Sr. #1 of the San Francisco 49ers rushes as Christian McCaffrey #23 and George Kittle #85 block during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 10, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. The 49ers defeated the Buccaneers 23-20. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
49ERS’ OFFENSE DEADLY, BUT BANGED UP
Like his father Mike, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan relies on an offense that is West Coast-based in its passing game and is very creative in its ability to attack matchups. It utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs and he has rode this approach to four conference championship game appearances and a pair of NFC titles.
The 49ers’ philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are All-Pro Trent Williams (who is currently injured, but when healthy is one of the NFL’s most agile left tackles who excels at getting out on the perimeter on screens), Aaron Banks (out this week due to injury), Jake Brendel, Dominick Puni, Colton McKivitz and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk., The team’s line, however, has struggled this year in pass protection – especially Banks and Brendel.
While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, Shanahan will also use gap schemes such as traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic. This system has made many a star out of running backs for decades and most of San Francisco’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end), and they’re also particularly good at running to the left side out of “11” personnel (one back, three wide receivers).
The reason why the 49ers like to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and creating more vanilla coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”
In years past these concepts by the Bay were carried out by veterans like Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Matt Breida, but neither of these backs had the ability to affect defensive gameplans both on the ground and through the air. Enter former Carolina Panther Christian McCaffrey, who earlier in his career became just the third back in NFL annals to have both 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season (Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig are the others). Acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for draft pick compensation, the explosive McCaffrey – who led the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns last year – is arguably the most talented running back either Shanahan has had play in this scheme, and he and backups Elijah Mitchell (currently injured) and Jordan Mason (a solid downhill runner) have wreaked havoc for the 49ers.
When healthy, McCaffrey (he’s missed a good chunk of this season because of bilateral Achilles tendinitis) is one of the league’s most complete backs. When lined up behind the quarterback he’s not much of a threat as a pass receiver – maybe on check downs or screens – but when offset to the formation or if motioned out of the backfield he can be dangerous. He’s very patient with good vision and underrated power, and is better on inside runs than given credit for.
A seventh-round pick two years ago out of Iowa State (and 2022’s “Mr. Irrelevant” aka the last selection of the draft), quarterback Brock Purdy has been a revelation. While not possessing great physical traits, Purdy is mobile, accurate and understands how to manipulate defenders in pass coverage. He also processes coverages quickly and has good anticipation with timing and rhythm.
San Francisco’s weapons in the passing game are dangerous. Four-time All-Pro tight end George Kittle is one of the league’s best at his position and is physically dominant both in the receiving game and at the point of attack. Speedsters Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (who is out for the season with a torn ACL) are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They also are liberally used by Shanahan in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities, and Samuel is a dangerous ball carrier on reverses and end-arounds. He will also sometimes line up at running back. Jauan Jennings and rookie Ricky Pearsall have had expanded duties with Aiyuk out.
Similar to his predecessors, Shanahan will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them additional space to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions (especially to create false reads, favorable angles and number advantages in the run game) and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.
As per usual, San Francisco had good production in 2023. They finished the regular season second in total yards, fourth in passing, and third in rushing and scoring. Additionally, they were among the league’s best in allowing sacks (tied for sixth). But this year they’ve had some issues with so many walking wounded – they’ve struggled in the red zone (fifth-worst) and are just 13th in scoring. But they remain fourth in total and passing yards and seventh in rushing.
GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 24: Fred Warner #54 of the San Francisco 49ers eyes the quarterback during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on November 24, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the 49ers 38-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO’S DEFENSE EVOLVING
When Shanahan was hired by San Francisco in 2017 he brought in Robert Saleh, a longtime protégé of Gus Bradley, as his defensive coordinator. Saleh and Bradley were among the original architects (along with Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll) of the Seattle Seahawks’ fabled Cover Three zone defensive scheme – deep zone coverage from the outside cornerbacks, one safety patrolling centerfield and another near the line of scrimmage – which they employed en route to back-to-back NFC championships and a Super Bowl title between 2013-14.
Saleh and his successor, DeMeco Ryans, parlayed success running San Francisco’s defense into head coaching jobs. After a one-year stint with the well-traveled Steve Wilks last season, new defensive play-caller Nick Sorensen and ex-Chargers coach Brandon Staley have put their own spin on the team’s playbook. Their base coverage is no longer Cover Three – instead it’s now based off quarters, or, as it’s more commonly known as, Cover Four, with each defensive back dividing the field into fourths with matchup principles to take away vertical concepts.
This approach has been gaining in popularity in recent years throughout the NFL. According to Smart Football’s Chris B. Brown, “It’s the most important defensive scheme of the past decade…. At first glance, Cover 4 looks like an anti-pass prevent tactic, with four secondary defenders playing deep. But therein lies its magic. The four defenders are actually playing a matchup zone concept, in which the safety reads the tight end or inside receiver. If an offensive player lined up inside releases on a short pass route or doesn’t release into the route, the safety can help double-team the outside receiver. If the inside receiver breaks straight downfield, it becomes more like man coverage. This variance keeps quarterbacks guessing and prevents defenses from being exploited by common pass plays like four verticals, which killed eight-man fronts. The real key to Cover 4, however, is that against the run both safeties become rush defenders (remember, the outside cornerbacks play deep). This allows defenses to play nine men in the box against the run – a hat-tip to the 46’s overwhelming force.”
Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir (out for Sunday) are the team’s starting outside cornerbacks, and Ward has become one of the better players at his position in the NFL. Tashaun Gipson, Ji’Ayir Brown, Malik Mustapha and the injured Talanoa Hufanga are the 49ers’ main contributors at safety.
The 49ers have an excellent pair of linebackers for their nickel packages in underrated sideline-to-sideline playmaker Dre Greenlaw (also injured, replaced by De’Vondre Campbell) and one of the league’s best second-level defenders in the speedy Fred Warner, who’s been playing with a broken ankle. In front of them is one of the NFL’s better defensive lines made up of Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave (both out for Sunday), Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott. This position group can liberally execute stunts, twists and slants to open one-on-one opportunities in pass rush situations and especially out of five-man tilted fronts.
The 49ers ended 2023 eighth in total yards given up, third against the run, 14th versus the pass and third in points allowed (not to mention tied for seventh in sacks and tied for fifth in takeaways), but like their offensive counterparts they’ve had good but mixed results this year due to injury. San Francisco’s also underachieved in the red zone (fourth-worst) and have been a poor tackling unit that struggles against two-tight end packages. So far they’re just 20th in points allowed but are sixth in total and passing yards surrendered, 10th versus the run and ninth in takeaways.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Terrel Bernard #43 of the Buffalo Bills intercepts a pass in the fourth quarter of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.
2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Micah Hyde, Shaq Lawson, Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson (Miami Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Baltimore Ravens), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers) and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).
Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.
They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge. Smoot and Carter, however, are both out with injuries, leading the Bills to bring back two familiar faces in Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson.
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and speed. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL – although against Seattle, Buffalo held them to just 32 yards rushing and one yard in the first half – the second-fewest ground total they’ve surrendered in a first half this century (-11 in Week 17 versus Indianapolis in 2010).
Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.
Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With that in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided flashes of his old All-Pro ability and speed with four sacks in seven games and multiple pressures.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six, although they used more man coverage against Kansas City in their last game) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. He is also adept at being used as a quarterback spy.
For the second straight year, Milano suffered a major injury – this time a torn bicep – but is now back and presumably healthy. While he was out, backup Dorian Williams picked up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he displayed flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid, and has improved with more experience game by game.
Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They used more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset his loss in pass coverage, and that setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.
With Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickup Kareem Jackson (who brings physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end), former Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick Lewis Cine and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Jackson and Cine are both on the practice squad.
At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and they are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis.
Despite injuries, the Bills’ defense has worked to the tune of 21 takeaways (fifth), seventh in points allowed, 14th against the pass, 15th in total yards allowed and 13th against the run. They’re also 10th in red zone efficiency and have forced a turnover in every game – the last time they did this in each of their first 11 games of a season was 2000.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)
BILLS’ UPPER-ECHELON OFFENSE ALSO RETOOLING IN 2024
For four consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, they allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo will be how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense in the spring was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas (Coleman is questionable this week due to a wrist injury).
While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Mecole Hardman who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year pass-catcher Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.
This group had been struggling to beat man coverage in recent games, and Brady has used more motion and bunch alignments to help in this regard Buffalo was lacking a true replacement for Diggs. Enter five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2025. Cooper, who is making less than a million dollars this season, fits what the Bills need both financially and on the field – boasting size, speed, excellent route-running and vertical ability and is deadly on in-breaking patterns over the middle.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets (so far the usage of “12” personnel – one back, two tight ends and two receivers – has gone up and the usage of “11” has decreased to just 50 percent of their snaps). Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year but is out this week with a knee injury.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew – which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989 – along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.
The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. Additionally Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings, the best mark in pro football, and the team has continued to allow sacks at the league’s lowest rate.
Buffalo has also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is Alec Anderson, and through 11 games the Bills have had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and they also lead the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen.
Another area the Bills needed to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. This year Allen has thrown just five interceptions – a sign of progress in this regard (Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 and he hasn’t been great in 2024. To improve he will need to get over whatever mental block is impeding him, but he did hit a franchise-record 61-yard field goal to beat Miami a few weeks ago and is eight-for-eight on field goals in the last minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.
Through 11 weeks Buffalo is third in scoring, 13th in total and passing yards and 11th in rushing. They’re also ninth on third down, tops on fourth down and turnover differential and sixth in red zone efficiency. Additionally, because of their heavy usage of the run and lack of production on early downs they’ve faced third-and-six or more on most of their drives.
McDermott and Brady also cost themselves a win against the Texans while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened.
According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes. They’ll need to learn from that miscue going forward.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a rushing touchdown during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .674 (31-15) since 2019.
· Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 37-9 including playoffs. They’ve also had 15 home wins of 24 points or more since 2020, the most in the NFL in that span.
· Allen’s career record is 72-32.
· Allen has moved past O.J. Simpson and is eight away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals in rushing touchdowns. With one more touchdown, he can become the team’s all-time leader in total scores – overtaking Jim Kelly for that mark.
· According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on one of the highest figures in the NFL.
· Miller is the first defensive player in league history to sign two contracts worth at least $100 million. He is also vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first) and has moved past Derrick Thomas for 17th on the all-time sack list. One-half of a sack will tie him with Rickey Jackson for 16th.
· Buffalo’s last scheduled primetime contest of the regular season will be against San Francisco.
· Sean McDermott is 7-0 when coming off a bye week and the Bills are 9-0 after a bye since 2015.
· Allen is 6-2 on Sunday Night Football and he and the Bills have the third-best primetime winning percentage since 2020.
· In December since 2020, Buffalo has lost just two games – both coming in 2021.
· Should the Bills win on Sunday, they’ll clinch the AFC East for a fifth straight season (which would be their longest streak ever). They’d also be the fourth team since league realignment in 2002 to win their division with five games or more left, joining the 2009 Colts, ’07 Patriots and ’04 Eagles.
· Cook has become the first Bills running back since LeSean McCoy in 2016 to rush for 10-plus touchdowns in a season.
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