TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-CHIEFS

by Tony Fiorello

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 15: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Divisional Round Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the AFC’s divisional round games will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s what you should know:

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 13: (L-R) Isiah Pacheco #10, Travis Kelce #87 and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs stand on the field before the AFC Wild Card Playoffs against the Miami Dolphins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

CHIEFS’ OFFENSE IS TYPICALLY DANGEROUS, BUT SLOWING A BIT

Andy Reid’s version of the West Coast offense has taken on many forms over the years. In Philadelphia his passing game with quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick was vertical-based to take advantage of their arm strength, conversely with Alex Smith it became conservative and horizontal.

Now with Patrick Mahomes under center it has returned to its downfield version. The system has also incorporated many college concepts in recent years and heavily relies on the design of the play to get people open. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Kansas City’s passing game is unique because it doesn’t depend on wide receivers winning one-on-one battles outside. The scheme relies on route combinations and creating opportunities for tight ends and running backs. This means the throws are more about timing than velocity.

“Reid features presnap motion, misdirection and multi-option reads. Those tactics put a defense on its heels by presenting the illusion of complexity, but they can transition into traditional concepts once the ball is snapped…. (they) aim to isolate specific defenders – often linebackers – present them with run/pass assignment conflicts and also get defenders flowing one way as the ball goes another.”

For years Kansas City employed wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. Following a trade to the Miami Dolphins following the 2021 season, Reid and general manager Brett Veach decided to replace him by committee.

Although they don’t boast quite the same speed as Hill does, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore give the Chiefs a trio who can beat anyone vertically and all are used liberally in motion by Reid. Rookie Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (he and Moore are both out for Sunday), Justin Watson, Justyn Ross and Richie James have also gotten in on the action this year to varying degrees and Reid also likes to give his wideouts reduced splits along the line of scrimmage to use defenders’ leverage against them and present two-way go’s. However, they have struggled this year against man coverage and are dropping passes at the highest rate in the NFL.

Travis Kelce, one of the best talents at his position, is versatile and can align in different ways in the formation (especially as the lone receiver on the backside in bunch – otherwise known as the boundary ‘X’ receiver). Perhaps the most athletic tight end in football, he can beat most defensive backs and linebackers on many different routes, especially on corners, sticks and crossers and is excellent at creating yards after the catch. Kelce set a record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,416 in 2020 and continues to remain his usual elite self. Backups Noah Grey, Jody Fortson (out with an injury) and Blake Bell’s roles have expanded as Kansas City has incorporated more formations featuring multiple tight ends (a year ago they used multi-tight end packages on more than 40 percent of their snaps).

In 2020 the Chiefs invested at running back by selecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU in the first round, hoping to upgrade a position that previously relied on veterans Damien Williams and former Eagle and Bill LeSean McCoy. Edwards-Helaire, however, has been injured and ineffective for most of his career – leading to Isiah Pacheco taking over. The powerful Pacheco (a downhill, north-south type of runner) and Jerick McKinnon are adept at hurting teams not just on the ground but through the air as well, especially on screen passes, and McKinnon has turned into an effective red zone weapon.

Those backs and Mahomes operate behind an offensive line that has undergone many changes over the last few years. Injuries and underperformance have seen the Chiefs say goodbye to names like Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Austin Reiter, Kelechi Osemele, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie and hello to new faces like All-Pro Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Smith and Taylor haven’t quite worked out so far – with the aging Smith being in and out of the lineup due to various ailments and Taylor underachieving, Reid has been keeping tight ends and backs in more to help in pass protection (Taylor has taken more penalties than anyone in the NFL this season). Wanya Morris, who has filled in at tackle from time to time, has some physical traits (size, long arms) but is considered a project due to a lack of technique.

The widespread comparisons of Mahomes to Brett Favre aren’t unfounded, as the former possesses most of the latter’s attributes – a cannon for an arm, an uncanny ability to extend plays and good mobility and intelligence, plus a willingness to fit passes into tight windows. But he hasn’t always played the way his coaches want him to.

From time to time Mahomes shows too much unnecessary movement both in and outside the pocket due to anticipating pressure that isn’t there, sloppy footwork and not playing within the timing and structure of Reid’s attack. He also sometimes doesn’t take what defenses give him coverage-wise and forces plays down the field that don’t need to be.

When this happens, Reid usually gets Mahomes to settle down by incorporating more short and intermediate concepts like “smash” and “flood” – resulting in him being more decisive and his offense becoming more rhythm-based and less vertical. His mechanics also need touching up at times – especially by holding the ball higher so he can throw quicker and fixing his lower body base.

A year ago the Chiefs’ offense was their usual lethal selves, ending 2022 first in total yards, points scored and passing, but 20th in rushing. This year they’ve fallen off a bit – 15th in points (21.8, the lowest in the Mahomes era), ninth in total yards, sixth in passing and 19th in rushing are usually not bad numbers for anyone, but given Kansas City’s lofty standards they should be better.

KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 13: Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) before the snap in the first quarter of an AFC Wild Card playoff game between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 13, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

KANSAS CITY’S DEFENSE ON THE REBOUND

From 2013 through 2018 the Chiefs’ defense was conducted by Bob Sutton, a former longtime assistant with the New York Jets. During the first three seasons Sutton applied his scheme in Kansas City the Chiefs had an upper-echelon unit, but between 2016-18 it took a nosedive – bottoming out in ’18 by finishing the regular season in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every statistical category.

Reid promptly replaced Sutton with one of his old assistants from Philadelphia in Steve Spagnuolo. “Spags”, a former head coach with the Rams and Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, implemented a 4-3 system characterized by cleverly disguised five-man overload blitzes and coverages involving mainly Cover One, Two, Zero and two-deep man with press technique by the cornerbacks and the safeties rotating before the snap. They also blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

The biggest key to Kansas City’s defense used to be former Arizona Cardinal and Houston Texan Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is one of the most versatile back-end defenders in football, as evidenced by his many snaps at slot cornerback, box safety, nickel/dime linebacker, free safety and outside cornerback. His athleticism and intelligence were valuable to the Chiefs – so valuable to the point where he was mainly used as the team’s middle hole defender in Cover Two zone and not a linebacker. But Mathieu left in free agency for the New Orleans Saints a year ago along with fellow safety Daniel Sorenson, and in their place now are ex-Texan Justin Reid (who matches up well with tight ends) and Bryan Cook (who is out for Sunday and will be replaced by Mike Edwards).

The Chiefs also underwent a makeover at cornerback. Veterans Charvarius Ward, Mike Hughes, Rashad Fenton and DeAndre Baker are gone and L’Jarius Sneed is now joined by youngsters Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson. This group is mainly used by Spagnuolo in dime packages (they utilize it at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL) with Sneed and Watson on the outside and McDuffie blitzing from the slot.

The Chiefs’ defensive line is the most talented part of this unit. All-Pro Chris Jones is one of the best defensive linemen in the league and is their linchpin thanks to his combination of burst and hand usage off the line of scrimmage. Derrick Nnadi (out for Sunday), Mike Danna and George Karlaftis are the team’s other contributors in their front four and all are versatile. At linebacker Kansas City employs Nick Bolton – who is their best second-level defender – Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill. Bolton is a good run defender and Tranquill excels in zone coverage.

Over the last few years the results from Spags’ defense were uneven, ranging anywhere from great to good to mediocre in multiple categories. Although 18th against the run and 27th in takeaways, his defense this season has been sublime ranking second in points allowed (17.3, the lowest of any Reid-coached team since the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles), second in total yards given up, fourth against the pass and second in sacks. The Chiefs have also gone just 2-4 against the playoff field this year – a surprising result, and both of their victories came against Miami.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 15: Greg Rousseau #50 of the Buffalo Bills sacks Mason Rudolph #2 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2023

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense – led by longtime stalwarts Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Matt Milano and Ed Oliver – has been one of the league’s best in the regular season. Points allowed (second in the NFL in that category in 2022), total yards per game allowed (sixth), rushing yards surrendered (fifth), takeaways (tied for fourth), interceptions (tied for fourth) and red zone defense (second) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at (last year’s 15th ranking against the pass not withstanding).

Buffalo, however, was inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (a year ago their missed and broken tackle percentage were among the highest in the NFL), a lack of gap integrity and a lack of versatility along the defensive line. This problem came up again this year against the Jets in Week One, where the Bills allowed 172 yards on the ground but a week later they held Josh Jacobs – last year’s rushing champion – to -2 yards on nine carries, the first time a reigning rushing champion was held to negative yards in a game according to ESPN.

To address this over the years, McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier (who has taken this season off, leaving McDermott to call the defensive plays) have brought in more talent. Out went names like Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, and in came talented and versatile linemen like Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa (who earlier this season became the first Bills defensive lineman to return an interception for a touchdown since Aaron Schobel in 2009), Da’Quan Jones and Tim Settle, and the return of former Bills like Jordan Phillips (out with a wrist injury) and Shaq Lawson were also welcomed additions. This season Buffalo has signed veterans such as Leonard Floyd, Kaylon “Poona” Ford and Linval Joseph to help out, and they’ve fit like a glove – especially Floyd, whose length and athleticism were needed on the edge (he had 10.5 sacks, the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016). Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville and is effective on T-T stunts.

Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed nearly 10 years ago. With this in mind, in 2022 general manager Brandon Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of this season while recovering on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He’s back now and on a snap count as he shakes off the rust, but his return is good news regardless. With Miller the Bills were fourth in the NFL in pressure rate with four or less pass rushers in 2022, without him they were 27th in that category – however their pressure rate and sack percentage has been among the best in the league thus far even without Miller.

Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zone coverages after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.

Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Milano and Terrell Bernard (replacing the departed Tremaine Edmunds) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but they rarely send five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer (his 6.5 sacks are the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals) and coverage ‘backer, becoming the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.

But Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a broken leg and a knee injury against the Jaguars and Bernard may miss the Chiefs game with an ankle ailment – which means backups Tyrel Dodson, A.J. Klein, Baylon Spector (also out) and rookie Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. So far they’ve struggled to defend the run well because of a lack of experience and not diagnosing those plays at the line of scrimmage (especially Williams) and Klein and Dodson are limited athletically but Dodson and Spector have come on as of late.

The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use nine snaps of dime against Kansas City in Week Seven last year – a matchup that saw them rely on three-man rushes and Milano utilizing a spy technique on Patrick Mahomes, and that setup has been relied upon again since Week Eight with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage. Generally it features Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage (Rapp is out this week due to injury).

White, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, was back to full form after tearing his ACL against the New Orleans Saints two years ago but is injured again – this time after rupturing his Achilles tendon against Miami in Week Four. Opposite him at the other boundary corner spot were second-year man Christian Benford (also out this week), Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro.

Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite, but with White’s upper-echelon ability to play both man and zone coverage gone, will McDermott lean on more zone from Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Josh Norman and newly-acquired Rasul Douglas than they ever have? It would make sense, especially given that Douglas and Norman are primarily zone corners. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he had two interceptions and a fumble recovery against New York, the first Bill to do so in a game since Kurt Schulz in 1998 and led the NFL in takeaways with six since he was acquired).

Hyde and Poyer have reunited to form perhaps the league’s best duo on the back end after being in and out of the lineup with various injuries throughout 2022, and the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin has also returned to full health after suffering a cardiac arrest episode against Cincinnati in Week 16.

Special teams were also solid for the Bills in 2022, having been 13th in punt return average and sixth in kick return average (which was boosted by Nyheim Hines’ two kick returns for scores in Week 18, the first player in Bills history to return two kicks for scores in one game and the first kick return for a touchdown by a Bill in three years) and were 18th and third in covering punts and kicks, respectively. However, Hines was lost for the season after a knee injury was sustained during the summer and the team allowed a punt return for a touchdown in overtime in Week One – the first time an NFL game ended on a punt return score since 2011. Deonte Harty did return the longest punt for a touchdown in Bills annals two weeks ago (96 yards, breaking Keith Moody’s 91-yard mark in 1977).

Buffalo ended the regular season fourth in points allowed, ninth in total yards allowed, seventh against the pass, 15th versus the run (although they’ve given up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs, 30th in the NFL), fourth in sacks (tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) despite blitzing among the least of any NFL team and third in takeaways. Their nine sacks and four picks against Washington allowed them to be the first team to put up those numbers in a game since the 1985 Dallas Cowboys and combined for six sacks and four turnovers against the Jets in Week 11 – they also held them without a first down on 11 third down tries, the first time since 1987 the Bills have prevented an opponent from converting on third down. They’ve also held seven of their last nine opponents to under 200 yards passing.

As well as they’ve played, however, their injuries have taken a toll. The Bills have given up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses – meaning they have struggled to close out games. As a result, they have gone 6-6 in one-score games (Buffalo was 7-3 in one-score outings a year ago).

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 15: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills scores a 52-yard touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

BILLS’ OFFENSE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT REBOUNDING AFTER SLUMPING

Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, the Bills have boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes have allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).

His core of targets is talented. Stefon Diggs is an exceptional route runner who excels in making contested catches and operates well out of bunch and stack formations. His presence along with the physical but inconsistent Gabriel Davis (out this week with an injury) has balanced out Buffalo’s wide receiver corps. But one element – speed – was lacking a year ago, so the Bills addressed this by letting veterans Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie and John Brown walk and brought in names like Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Andy Isabella to go along with second-year man Khalil Shakir. Tight end Dawson Knox is now joined by rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid from Utah, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets – Kincaid has lived up to the hype with 73 receptions, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a tight end in one season – additionally, a week ago Buffalo became the first team with a receiving score by two tight ends in the first quarter of a playoff game.

The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, rookie O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps, counters, split inside zone and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook has taken on more of a featured role and played well since Devin Singletary left for Houston and is backed up by physical ex-Patriot Damien Harris (out with a concussion and sprained neck) and veteran Latavius Murray, who has rushed for a touchdown with six NFL teams – tied with Adrian Peterson for the most all-time. Ex-Jet Ty Johnson also provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.

The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength for most of this season. Most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs in the past – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number has increased this year. Rushing for 266 yards against Dallas was the most such yardage under Sean McDermott since 2017 and in Week One against New York Buffalo surrendered five sacks (tied for the fifth-most in Allen’s career), but was taken down just 24 times total in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football.

Since 2018 Buffalo’s passing offense has been a Patriots-style system built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. They’ve also used plenty of pre-snap motion and shifts – in the past it was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and will also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.

The Bills got away from those concepts for most of 2023 and tried to rely on their talent winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them, but have returned to them down the stretch with more motion, designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure. They have helped on third down, especially against Philadelphia, where he went 12 for 19 on third and medium or longer – the best of any signal caller in 20 years.

The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll – now the head coach of the New York Giants – also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information – no team with a winning record in the last 20 years did it more than Buffalo – and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.

Buffalo’s expected usage of “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends) has gone up a bit with the employment of Knox and Kincaid, who also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year. They were last in the NFL in usage of that grouping a year ago (three percent), and their amount of play-action passes has dropped after being a top-four team in those concepts used in 2020 and ’21 and 25th a year ago – especially while under center, which when utilized helps the Bills be one of the most efficient play-action teams in football. It also gives Diggs time to set up double moves, masks any pass protection weaknesses and improves their timing, rhythm and efficiency.

For everything the Bills did right on offense last year (first in third down conversion percentage, second in points scored and in total yards per game, fifth in passing, seventh in rushing and ninth in red zone percentage), two flaws remained – they were one the league’s sloppiest teams with 27 turnovers and the team’s ability to create sustained offense slipped during the stretch run of the season. Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in the regular season and had three turnovers in the wild card playoff round versus the Dolphins (mainly due to perceiving pressure that wasn’t there and playing too fast). Those issues have persisted in 2023 as Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions.

In 2022 the Bills won eight in a row (including playoffs, their longest streak since eight in 1990) and included winning six straight non-Sunday games – the first team to have done so since the 1962 Boston Patriots. Additionally Buffalo lost just three games by a total of eight points and tied the franchise mark for wins in a season with 13 (along with the 1990, ’91 and 2020 teams).

This year the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They’re also second in third down rate and fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady. Brady’s work is cut out for him – he needs to create better synergy between Buffalo’s running game and play-action plays and get back to more shifts, motions and under-center formations. Which he’s done so far, but it remains to be seen if it will continue moving forward.

Punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have also been their usual excellent selves, especially Martin as of late. While McDermott elected to punt four times in fourth-and-one situations against Tampa (according to OptaSTATS, no other NFL team in the last 30 years got within a yard of or past midfield on each of their last four drives of a game and punted all four times), Martin answered the call by pinning the Bucs inside their own 10-yard line three times. He was also excellent against New England. Bass, meanwhile, is nine for nine on go-ahead field goals in his career with two minutes or less remaining in games, and Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006. Including Bass’ honor earlier this year, it’s the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 15: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball after a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on January 15, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

STATS AND MUSINGS

·         Allen has compiled 40 career regular season games with a passer rating of 100 or better and has reached that mark in 23 of his last 39 outings. In those games Buffalo’s record is 37-3, and he had a perfect quarterback rating against Miami in Week Four – Doug Flutie was the only other Bills passer to accomplish that feat in one game back in 2000.

·         Allen has broken Steve Young’s mark for most career regular season games (eight) with 300 or more passing yards and 50 or more rushing yards. He’s second all-time in games with a passing and rushing score (43) – behind just Cam Newton (64) – and became the first quarterback with 11 games of a rushing and passing touchdown in one season.

·         Buffalo’s franchise quarterback has eight career games with three passing touchdowns and a rushing score – only Drew Brees and Tom Brady (nine) have more all-time. He also became the first signal-caller to throw for 250 yards, run for 50, toss three touchdowns, run for one, complete 80 percent of his throws and win a game in league history against the Rams in Week One last year. His completion percentage against Miami in Week Four was 84, the highest in team history and became the first with 350-plus passing, 65-plus rushing and a 75 percent completion rate in one game against Miami in Week 18.

·         Allen has moved past Young for second all-time in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback – only Newton has more (75) and has become the first quarterback with four straight 40 total touchdown seasons. He’s also joined Jalen Hurts as the only signal callers with 15 or more rushing scores in a season, and has the fourth-most rushing yards by a quarterback in the playoffs all-time (behind Young, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick).

·         Allen and McDermott have defeated every team in the NFL at least once except two – Arizona and Philadelphia. Allen’s also become the only signal caller with 4,000 passing yards and 750 rushing yards in a season twice (he’s the only one to do so once).

·         Diggs and Allen have connected for a touchdown 37 times, second on the Bills’ all-time list (Jim Kelly and Andre Reed have 65). Diggs also tied Bill Brooks’ team record for touchdowns in a season in 2022 (11), is fourth in franchise history in scores, receptions and yards. He is the first Bills receiver with four straight 100-catch and 1,000-yard seasons and is the youngest ever to reach 800 career catches.

·         Speaking of Diggs, he became the sixth player ever with 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards in three straight seasons – joining Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Herman Moore, Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas. He’s also the first to do so in each of his first three years with one team and has tied Keenan Allen, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald for the second-most 100-catch seasons ever with five.

·         Secondary target notes – Knox is second in team annals with 22 receiving scores by a tight end. He’s behind only Pete Metzelaars (25) and became the fourth Bill with six or more receiving scores in the playoffs all-time (James Lofton and Davis also have six). Reed had nine.

·         Since 2017 the Bills are 57-8 when leading at halftime (including playoffs) and Week Six versus the Giants was the first game in which they were held scoreless through three quarters and won since December 1993 against Philadelphia (it was first time it had happened at home since 1987 – also against the Giants).

·         Miller is the first defensive player in league history to sign two contracts worth at least $100 million. He is also vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first), has moved past Robert Mathis for 19th on the all-time sack list and is two quarterback takedowns away from tying Dwight Freeney for 18th.

·         Buffalo’s point differential was plus-169 in 2022 – the second-best in the NFL and second-best in franchise history (2021) – and recorded 5,000 yards of offense for the third time in team history, joining the 1991 and 1975 teams. This year their differential wass plus-140, fourth-best.

·         After beating Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in 2022, according to Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports Allen became the first quarterback to defeat three former MVPs in a four-game span since Troy Aikman downed Dan Marino, Young and Brett Favre in 1996. He’s also the first signal caller to beat three former MVPs in one month since David Woodley in September 1981.

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .675 (27-13) since 2019. Buffalo is also 24-5 in December and January in the regular season and playoffs since 2020 – the best mark in the NFL.

·         Buffalo has clinched a playoff berth for the fifth straight year, the second-longest streak in franchise history (six years from 1988-93 is the longest) and it’s the sixth time McDermott has clinched a playoff berth, trailing just Marv Levy (eight) for the most by a Bills coach. The Bills have won a fourth straight AFC East title, which ties their longest streak since 1988-91 and they have five straight seasons with double-digit wins, a team record (they also have 11 wins in four straight years, their most since 1990-93).

·         McDermott’s record against the AFC East since 2017 is 27-15 – a winning percentage of .642.

·         Buffalo hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game in Miami – they’re 0-7 since. However their playoff record at home is 15-4 all-time, and 14-2 at Highmark Stadium.

·         Buffalo’s regular season record over the last three years with Allen is 48-18, and he’s 63-31 all-time as a Bill. Allen is 20-6 against the NFC in his career.

·         Since 2020 the Bills’ record coming off a loss is 14-4 and in Allen’s career they’re 23-6 after a loss – a .793 winning percentage, the highest among NFL quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (Joe Montana is second with a 33-10 mark).

·         McDermott is the third coach in Bills history to appear in 100 games with the franchise along with Levy and Lou Saban. He’s also moved past Saban for second in franchise annals in wins and the Bills haven’t lost coming off a bye week under him (in fact, they haven’t lost in their first game after a bye since 2014). However, he’s also 1-6 in overtime including playoffs.

·         Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 32-8 including playoffs. They’re also 11-1 in games including playoffs with a temperature of 32 and under since 2017.

·         Allen’s career record in primetime is 15-6 and he and McDermott are 5-1 on Sunday Night Football. They’re also 6-1 on Thursdays, but just 3-4 on Monday Night Football.

·         Allen’s broken Patrick Mahomes’ record for most scores by a quarterback in his first six seasons and he and Mahomes have the most total touchdowns in the NFL since 2018. The two also have the most total offensive yards per game in playoff history and the most total scores through nine postseason contests all-time, and according to buffalobills.com, quarterbacks who have led the NFL in both categories are 6-0 in the wild card round and four of the last five have reached at least the Conference Championships. Allen and Mahomes also have the most games with 200 yards passing and 50 yards rushing in the playoffs.

·         The Bills have won four games by 25 or more points this year – tied for their most ever in one season. They’ve also lost all six of their games by six points or less, the first team to do so since the 2015 Baltimore Ravens and ’12 Carolina Panthers. Their record against playoff teams is 6-1 including playoffs.

·         Buffalo became the first team ever to convert 10 third downs, have 500 yards of offense and win the turnover battle and still lose when it happened against the Eagles. Teams were 39-0 before that, according to ESPN.

·         Cook has posted 100 or more scrimmage yards eight times in 2023. He was also fourth in rushing, becoming the first Bill with 1,000 yards on the ground since LeSean McCoy in 2017. Cook also became the first Bill with 200 or more scrimmage yards, a rushing and a receiving score in a game since Thurman Thomas in 1991 and only the fourth Bill ever to accomplish the feat (Thomas in ’91 and ‘89, Greg Bell in ’84 and O.J. Simpson in ‘75). He also helped the Bills rush for 179 yards last week versus Pittsburgh, their most in a playoff games since 1995 against Miami.

·         Allen is just four rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 13 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals.

·         Clinching the AFC East for the fourth straight year also gave the Bills the AFC’s second seed for the third time in four years. According to OptaStats, since the NFL started to seed teams for postseason play in 1975 this year’s Bills are the only team to be at or below .500 with five games or less to go and still get a top-two seed.

·         The Bills and Steelers became the first teams to reach the playoffs after making a coordinator change in-season since the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, according to ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg.

·         Buffalo and Kansas City are the only teams to win 10 or more games and reach the playoffs in each of the last five years. The Bills are also tied with Philadelphia for the second-most playoff appearances since 2017 (six), behind only the Chiefs.

·         McDermott has a 4-3 career record (including playoffs) against Reid, his former boss in Philadelphia from 1999-2010. Sunday will also be the seventh time in the last four years the two have squared off, the first time the Chiefs will play a road playoff game in the Mahomes era (their last coming in 2015 with Alex Smith under center), the third postseason matchup between Allen and Mahomes with Mahomes 2-0 in the playoffs and just the second time in their last seven meetings Kansas City will travel to Buffalo (the only other time the Bills have played against them in Orchard Park was in 2020 when fans weren’t allowed due to COVID-19.)

·         The Bills have been red-hot as of late, winning six straight going back to their first meeting with the Chiefs.

·         More Allen stats – he became the first quarterback ever with three passing scores, 70 or more rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground in the playoffs – the only other to have a game with three scores and 70-plus rushing yards (but no rushing scores) is Otto Graham, who accomplished the feat in 1950.

·         According to buffalobills.com, Allen’s 52-yard run last week was the longest touchdown run in the playoffs in team annals and the second-longest run for a score by a quarterback ever in the postseason (Kaepernick had a 56-yarder in 2012 against San Francisco). Allen’s also two passing scores away from breaking Kelly’s career playoff franchise mark.

·         This will be the 55th all-time meeting between the Bills and Chiefs including playoffs – the Bills have a 29-24-1 record.