TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-DOLPHINS

by Tony Fiorello

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on from the sideline during a game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Welcome to Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

The Bills’ 17th game of 2023 will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida as they face the Miami Dolphins. Here’s what you should know:

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 22: Tua Tagovailoa #1 calls a play to Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter of a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on October 22, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

MIAMI’S OFFENSE PLAYING AT A HIGH LEVEL

After winning 10 games in 2020 for just the third time since 2008, owner Stephen Ross gave general manager Chris Grier – the brother of ex-Buffalo Sabres winger Mike Grier – the authority to build the team as he and former head coach Brian Flores saw fit. However, after a nine-win campaign in 2021 Grier decided to make a coaching change and replaced Flores with San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.

Under Flores, new faces were a constant at one area for Miami – offensive coordinator. While the basis of Flores’ philosophy stayed the same – using the Erhardt-Perkins concepts that his former employer, the New England Patriots, have based their passing game around for more than 20 years – the man calling the plays changed in all three of Flores’ seasons in South Beach. After trying out Chad O’Shea and Chan Gailey in 2019 and ’20, Flores decided to promote then-tight ends coach George Godsey (a former offensive coordinator with the Houston Texans) and running backs coach Eric Studesville to passing game and running game coordinator, respectively. Neither panned out.

In contrast, McDaniel – a longtime protégé of Mike and Kyle Shanahan – has brought their version of the West Coast offense to South Beach. The system is very creative in its ability to attack matchups and utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs.

The Dolphins’ running philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are former All-Pro Terron Armstead, Isaiah Wynn, Connor Williams (both out with injuries and replaced by Liam Eichenberg and Lester Cotton), Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt, versatile fullback Alec Ingold and tight end Durham Smythe, and have allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the NFL despite fielding 11 different combinations this year.

While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, McDaniel will also use power plays, traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic and will throw in some misdirection concepts like end-arounds and reverses as well. These are usually carried out by speed threats Raheem Mostert (who is questionable with knee and ankle issues), Jeff Wilson Jr. and De’Von Achane. This system has made many a star out of running backs for decades and most of Miami’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end).

The reason why the Shanahan coaching tree likes to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while also taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and forcing the opposition to use more basic coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”

Wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and speed to burn, and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They can also return punts in a pinch and are liberally used by McDaniel in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities and create leverage and space. Hill and Waddle are also dangerous ballcarriers and will sometimes line up at running back.

Hill is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. The “Cheetah”, as he’s sometimes known, broke Mark Clayton’s single-season franchise record for receiving yards a year ago and he and Waddle (who is questionable for Sunday’s game with an ankle ailment) were the only two wideouts on the same team to each have over 1,300 yards in 2022. Hill was also on pace to break the NFL’s single-season record for yardage this year before an injury a few weeks ago – their speed dissuades the opposition from using single-high coverages against them.

Like his colleagues, McDaniel will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them extra room to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions, especially to create false reads and favorable angles in the running game, and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.

At the helm of this attack is signal caller Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa, a rhythmic, precision passer and 2020’s fifth-overall draft pick out of Alabama, has most of his passing concepts come in the form of short and intermediate plays to play to his strengths as an intelligent passer who can get the ball out on time and to hide his limitations – particularly an arm that isn’t one of the league’s strongest, and he also isn’t comfortable going to his second and third reads in pass progressions. Nevertheless he’s first in the NFL in completion percentage and passing yards, and is looking to be the first quarterback to end the season with such marks since Drew Brees in 2011.

After performing well a year ago, Miami’s offense has become one of the league’s best. Earlier this year the Dolphins had a 70-point, 700-yard performance against the Denver Broncos (becoming the first team ever to put up both numbers in one game, the first to score 70 in a game since 1966 and just the fourth team ever to score 70 in a game) and are first in points, passing and total yards, fifth in rushing and fourth in red zone scoring. However they’ve shown to have one crucial weakness – while they are excellent in their 3x1 (three wideouts on one side, one on the other) formations, they can be predictable in 2x2 (two on each side, they love to use play-action in this set and zone runs compared to gap runs in 3x1s – for more info, read this: What a difference one change in alignment makes for the Dolphins - Sports Info Solutions).

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - DECEMBER 17: Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) covers a receiver as he defends during the game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 17, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

DOLPHINS’ DEFENSE HAS A SWITCH IN PHILOSOPHY

Former defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, who worked with Flores in New England, favored playing lots of Cover One – man coverage with a single-high safety over the top – and occasionally mixed in some Cover Three concepts (deep zone coverage on the outside with a safety in the box and a deep safety patrolling centerfield). He also loved to blitz, sending extra rushers at quarterbacks out of multiple defensive fronts and sometimes zone-blitzed on third-down with a lot of disguise and late movement by their defensive backs at the snap.

These schemes allowed the Dolphins to be among the NFL’s leaders in takeaways and turnover margin in 2020. Miami went from dead-last in points allowed per game to among the best and were also among the league leaders in third-down and red zone defense. However, underperformance – especially in their pass rush – and injuries at cornerback set the Dolphins back severely, forcing Boyer to rely on zone coverage more and not blitz as much. Consequently, the team dropped to the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category, and they stayed there in 2022.

Something had to be done, so McDaniel let Boyer go and replaced him with one of the NFL’s best defensive minds in Vic Fangio, a onetime protégé of Dom Capers and Jim Mora. Having built dominant units in San Francisco and Chicago in recent years, Fangio finally got his long-awaited shot at being a head coach in Denver in 2019 but his tenure there didn’t go as planned. Now after spending last season as a consultant to the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, Fangio is back running his own unit.

Unlike Boyer, Fangio doesn’t blitz much. Relying on three and four-man pass rushes with stunts, twists and slants and two-deep safety looks often, he heavily employs well-disguised hybrid coverages that feature man and zone concepts – especially Cover Four, or “quarters”, with each defensive back dividing the field into fourths and matchup principles to take away vertical concepts. While the Dolphins are a base 3-4, he will also mix in 5-2 fronts to stop the run and dime personnel versus the pass, and he does a great job with safety and coverage rotations in long passing situations.

This approach has been gaining in popularity in recent years throughout the NFL. According to Smart Football’s Chris B. Brown, “It’s the most important defensive scheme of the past decade…. At first glance, Cover 4 looks like an anti-pass prevent tactic, with four secondary defenders playing deep. But therein lies its magic. The four defenders are actually playing a matchup zone concept, in which the safety reads the tight end or inside receiver. If an offensive player lined up inside releases on a short pass route or doesn’t release into the route, the safety can help double-team the outside receiver. If the inside receiver breaks straight downfield, it becomes more like man coverage.

“This variance keeps quarterbacks guessing and prevents defenses from being exploited by common pass plays like four verticals, which killed eight-man fronts. The real key to Cover 4, however, is that against the run both safeties become rush defenders (remember, the outside cornerbacks play deep). This allows defenses to play nine men in the box against the run – a hat-tip to the 46’s overwhelming force.”

Miami is led in their secondary by cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and the injured Xavien Howard (replaced by Kayden Kohou and Eli Apple), and when healthy are one of the better outside corner pairs in the league. Nik Needham normally mans the slot and the team’s starting safeties are DeShon Eliott and Jevon Holland.

At linebacker the Dolphins employ David Long, Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, Melvin Ingram, Duke Riley, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips (Chubb, their sack leader and Phillips are out this weekend due to injury), and their defensive linemen are Emmanuel Ogbah, Raekwon Davis and the underrated Christian Wilkins. Zach Sieler has also earned playing time recently.

Miami’s defense has adapted to Fangio’s new scheme well. They are ninth in total yards given up, 12th versus the pass and in takeaways, seventh against the run, tied for third in sacks and 11th on third down. But they’re 21st in points allowed.

BUFFALO, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Rasul Douglas #31 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates with his teammates after catching an interception during the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Buffalo, New York. The Bills beat the Patriots 27-21. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)

BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2023

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense – led by longtime stalwarts Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Matt Milano and Ed Oliver – has been one of the league’s best in the regular season. Points allowed (second in the NFL in that category in 2022), total yards per game allowed (sixth), rushing yards surrendered (fifth), takeaways (tied for fourth), interceptions (tied for fourth) and red zone defense (second) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at (last year’s 15th ranking against the pass not withstanding).

Buffalo, however, was inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (a year ago their missed and broken tackle percentage were among the highest in the NFL), a lack of gap integrity and a lack of versatility along the defensive line. This problem came up again this year against the Jets in Week One, where the Bills allowed 172 yards on the ground but a week later they held Josh Jacobs – last year’s rushing champion – to -2 yards on nine carries, the first time a reigning rushing champion was held to negative yards in a game according to ESPN.

To address this over the years, McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier (who has taken this season off, leaving McDermott to call the defensive plays) have brought in more talent. Out went names like Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, and in came talented and versatile linemen like Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa (who earlier this season became the first Bills defensive lineman to return an interception for a touchdown since Aaron Schobel in 2009), Da’Quan Jones and Tim Settle, and the return of former Bills like Jordan Phillips (out with a wrist injury) and Shaq Lawson were also welcomed additions. This season Buffalo has signed veterans such as Leonard Floyd, Kaylon “Poona” Ford and Linval Joseph to help out, and they’ve fit like a glove – especially Floyd, whose length and athleticism were needed on the edge (he has 10.5 sacks, the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016). Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville and is effective on T-T stunts.

Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed nearly 10 years ago. With this in mind, in 2022 general manager Brandon Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of this season while recovering on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He’s back now and on a snap count as he shakes off the rust, but his return is good news regardless. With Miller the Bills were fourth in the NFL in pressure rate with four or less pass rushers in 2022, without him they were 27th in that category – however their pressure rate and sack percentage has been among the best in the league thus far even without Miller.

Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zone coverages after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.

Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Milano and Terrell Bernard (replacing the departed Tremaine Edmunds) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but they rarely send five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer (his 6.5 sacks are the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals) and coverage ‘backer, becoming the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season. Milano, however, is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a broken leg and a knee injury against the Jaguars, so backups Tyrel Dodson and rookie Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. So far they’ve struggled to defend the run well because of a lack of experience and not diagnosing those plays at the line of scrimmage (especially Williams) and Dodson is limited athletically but has come on as of late.

The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use nine snaps of dime against Kansas City in Week Seven last year – a matchup that saw them rely on three-man rushes and Milano utilizing a spy technique on Patrick Mahomes, and that setup has been relied upon again since Week Eight with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage. Generally it features Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.

White, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, was back to full form after tearing his ACL against the New Orleans Saints two years ago but is injured again – this time after rupturing his Achilles tendon against Miami in Week Four. Opposite him at the other boundary corner spot were second-year man Christian Benford, Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro.

Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite, but with White’s upper-echelon ability to play both man and zone coverage gone, will McDermott lean on more zone from Jackson, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Josh Norman and newly-acquired Rasul Douglas than they ever have? It would make sense, especially given that Douglas and Norman are primarily zone corners. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he had two interceptions and a fumble recovery against New York, the first Bill to do so in a game since Kurt Schulz in 1998 and leads the NFL in takeaways with six since he was acquired).

Hyde and Poyer have reunited to form perhaps the league’s best duo on the back end after being in and out of the lineup with various injuries throughout 2022, and the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin has also returned to full health after suffering a cardiac arrest episode against Cincinnati in Week 16.

Special teams were also solid for the Bills in 2022, having been 13th in punt return average and sixth in kick return average (which was boosted by Nyheim Hines’ two kick returns for scores in Week 18, the first player in Bills history to return two kicks for scores in one game and the first kick return for a touchdown by a Bill in three years) and were 18th and third in covering punts and kicks, respectively. However, Hines was lost for the season after a knee injury was sustained during the summer and the team allowed a punt return for a touchdown in overtime in Week One – the first time an NFL game ended on a punt return score since 2011.

Through 16 games Buffalo is fourth in points allowed, 10th in total yards allowed, seventh against the pass, 15th versus the run, tied for third in sacks (five away from breaking the franchise record) despite blitzing among the least of any NFL team and second in takeaways. Their nine sacks and four picks against Washington allowed them to be the first team to put up those numbers in a game since the 1985 Dallas Cowboys and combined for six sacks and four turnovers against the Jets in Week 11 – they also held them without a first down on 11 third down tries, the first time since 1987 the Bills have prevented an opponent from converting on third down. They also held Dallas, the highest-scoring offense in the NFL a few weeks ago, to just 10 points.

As well as they’ve played, however, their injuries have taken a toll. The Bills have given up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses – meaning they have struggled to close out games. As a result, they have gone 5-6 in one-score games (Buffalo was 7-3 in one-score outings a year ago).

BUFFALO, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills calls a play during the game against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Buffalo, New York. The Bills beat the Patriots 27-21. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)

BILLS’ OFFENSE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT REBOUNDING AFTER SLUMPING

Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers the Bills have boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes have allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (he was second in passing and total touchdowns and seventh in yards in 2022).

His core of targets is talented. Stefon Diggs is an exceptional route runner who excels in making contested catches and operates well out of bunch and stack formations. His presence along with the physical but inconsistent Gabriel Davis has balanced out Buffalo’s wide receiver corps. But one element – speed – was lacking a year ago, so the Bills addressed this by letting veterans Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie and John Brown walk and brought in names like Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Andy Isabella to go along with second-year man Khalil Shakir. Tight end Dawson Knox is now joined by rookie first-round pick Dalton Kincaid from Utah, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets – Kincaid has lived up to the hype with 66 receptions, the most of any Bills rookie and is two catches from tying Pete Metzelaars for the franchise record in catches by a tight end in one season.

The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, former Cowboy Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse, rookie O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps, counters, split inside zone and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook has taken on more of a featured role and played well since Devin Singletary left for Houston and is backed up by physical ex-Patriot Damien Harris (out with a concussion and sprained neck) and veteran Latavius Murray, who has rushed for a touchdown with six NFL teams – tied with Adrian Peterson for the most all-time. Former Jaguar and Buccaneer Leonard Fournette, a bruising type, was also signed to the team’s practice squad and can catch out of the backfield along with ex-Jet Ty Johnson.

The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength for most of this season. Most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs in the past – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number has increased this year. Rushing for 266 yards against Dallas was the most such yardage under Sean McDermott since 2017 and in Week One against New York Buffalo surrendered five sacks (tied for the fifth-most in Allen’s career) but has been taken down just 21 times total in 16 outings – the best mark in pro football.

Since 2018 Buffalo’s passing offense has been a Patriots-style system built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility, deep dropbacks and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. They’ve also used plenty of pre-snap motion and shifts – in the past it was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers) and “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) – and will also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.

The Bills got away from those concepts for most of 2023 and tried to rely on their talent winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them, but have returned to them the last six weeks with a season-high usage in motion, designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure. They have helped on third down, especially against Philadelphia, where he went 12 for 19 on third and medium or longer – the best of any signal caller in 20 years.

The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll – now the head coach of the New York Giants – also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information – no team with a winning record in the last 20 years did it more than Buffalo – and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.

Buffalo’s expected usage of “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends) has gone up a bit with the employment of Knox and Kincaid. They were last in the NFL in usage of that grouping a year ago (three percent), and their amount of play-action passes has dropped after being a top-four team in those concepts used in 2020 and ’21 and 25th a year ago – especially while under center, which when utilized helps the Bills be one of the most efficient play-action teams in football. It also gives Diggs time to set up double moves, masks any pass protection weaknesses and improves their timing, rhythm and efficiency.

For everything the Bills did right on offense last year (first in third down conversion percentage, second in points scored and in total yards per game, fifth in passing, seventh in rushing and ninth in red zone percentage), two flaws remained – they were one the league’s sloppiest teams with 27 turnovers and the team’s ability to create sustained offense slipped during the stretch run of the season. Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in the regular season and had three turnovers in the wild card playoff round versus the Dolphins (mainly due to perceiving pressure that wasn’t there and playing too fast). Those issues have persisted in 2023 as Allen threw an interception in nine straight games, a career-high and the most of any Bills quarterback since Jim Kelly from 1995-96.

In 2022 the Bills won eight in a row (including playoffs, their longest streak since eight in 1990) and included winning six straight non-Sunday games – the first team to have done so since the 1962 Boston Patriots. Additionally Buffalo lost just three games by a total of eight points and tied the franchise mark for wins in a season with 13 (along with the 1990, ’91 and 2020 teams).

Through 16 games the Bills are fifth in scoring and total yards, seventh in rushing and 10th in passing yards. They’re also first in third down rate and second in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady. Brady’s work is cut out for him – he needs to create better synergy between Buffalo’s running game and play-action plays and get back to more shifts, motions and under-center formations. Which he’s done so far, but it remains to be seen if it will continue moving forward.

Punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have also been their usual excellent selves, especially Martin as of late. While McDermott elected to punt four times in fourth-and-one situations against Tampa (according to OptaSTATS, no other NFL team in the last 30 years got within a yard of or past midfield on each of their last four drives of a game and punted all four times), Martin answered the call by pinning the Bucs inside their own 10-yard line three times. He was also excellent a week ago against New England. Bass, meanwhile, is nine for nine on go-ahead field goals in his career with two minutes or less remaining in games.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 31: Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

STATS AND MUSINGS

·         Allen has compiled 39 career regular season games with a passer rating of 100 or better and has reached that mark in 22 of his last 38 outings. In those games Buffalo’s record is 36-3, and he had a perfect quarterback rating against Miami in Week Four – Doug Flutie was the only other Bills passer to accomplish that feat in one game back in 2000.

·         Allen has tied Steve Young for most career regular season games (eight) with 300 or more passing yards and 50 or more rushing yards. He’s second all-time in games with a passing and rushing score (43) – behind just Cam Newton (64) – and became the first quarterback with 11 games of a rushing and passing touchdown in one season.

·         Buffalo’s franchise quarterback has eight career games with three passing touchdowns and a rushing score – only Drew Brees and Tom Brady (nine) have more all-time. He also became the first signal-caller to throw for 250 yards, run for 50, toss three touchdowns, run for one, complete 80 percent of his throws and win a game in league history against the Rams in Week One last year. His completion percentage against Miami in Week Four was 84, the highest in team history.

·         Allen has moved past Young for second all-time in rushing touchdowns by a quarterback – only Newton has more (75) and has become the first quarterback with four straight 40 total touchdown seasons. He’s also joined Jalen Hurts as the only signal callers with 15 or more rushing scores in a season.

·         Allen and McDermott have defeated every team in the NFL at least once except two – Arizona and Philadelphia. Allen’s also become the only signal caller with 4,000 passing yards and 750 rushing yards in a season twice (he’s the only one to do so once).

·         Diggs and Allen have connected for a touchdown 37 times, second on the Bills’ all-time list (Jim Kelly and Andre Reed have 65). Diggs also tied Bill Brooks’ team record for touchdowns in a season in 2022 (11), is fourth in franchise history in scores and receptions and has surpassed Frank Lewis for fifth in team annals in yards. He is the first Bills receiver with four straight 1,000 yard seasons and is the youngest ever to reach 800 career catches.

·         Speaking of Diggs, he became the sixth player ever with 100 receptions and 1,200 receiving yards in three straight seasons – joining Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Herman Moore, Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas. He’s also the first to do so in each of his first three years with one team and with three catches could tie Keenan Allen, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald for the second-most 100-catch seasons ever with five.

·         Secondary target notes – last year Knox moved past Jay Riemersma for second in team annals with 21 receiving scores by a tight end. He’s behind only Pete Metzelaars (25) and became the fifth Bill with five or more receiving scores in the playoffs all-time while also catching a touchdown in five straight games (only Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski have had longer streaks among tight ends). Meanwhile, Davis has the second-most receiving touchdowns in team playoff history (six), tying James Lofton. Reed had nine.

·         Since 2017 the Bills are 56-8 when leading at halftime and Week Six versus the Giants was the first game in which they were held scoreless through three quarters and won since December 1993 against Philadelphia (it was first time it had happened at home since 1987 – also against the Giants).

·         Miller is the first defensive player in league history to sign two contracts worth at least $100 million. He is also vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first), has moved past Robert Mathis for 19th on the all-time sack list and is two quarterback takedowns away from tying Dwight Freeney for 18th.

·         Buffalo’s point differential was plus-169 in 2022 – the second-best in the NFL and second-best in franchise history (2021) – and recorded 5,000 yards of offense for the third time in team history, joining the 1991 and 1975 teams. This year their differential is plus-133, fourth-best.

·         After beating Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in 2022, according to Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports Allen became the first quarterback to defeat three former MVPs in a four-game span since Troy Aikman downed Dan Marino, Young and Brett Favre in 1996. He’s also the first signal caller to beat three former MVPs in one month since David Woodley in September 1981.

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .667 (26-13) since 2019. Buffalo is also 18-2 in December and January in the regular season since 2020 – the best mark in the NFL.

·         Buffalo has clinched a playoff berth for the fifth straight year, the second-longest streak in franchise history (six years from 1988-93 is the longest) and it’s the sixth time McDermott has clinched a playoff berth, trailing just Marv Levy (eight) for the most by a Bills coach. The Bills are also attempting to win a fourth straight AFC East title, which would tie their longest streak since 1988-91, and they have five straight seasons with double-digit wins, a team record (one more would give them 11 in four straight years, their most since 1990-93).

·         McDermott’s record against the AFC East since 2017 is 26-15 – a winning percentage of .634.

·         Buffalo hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game in Miami – they’re 0-7 since.

·         Buffalo’s regular season record over the last three years with Allen is 47-18, and he’s 62-31 all-time as a Bill. Allen is 20-6 against the NFC in his career.

·         Since 2020 the Bills’ record coming off a loss is 14-4 and in Allen’s career they’re 23-6 after a loss – a .793 winning percentage, the highest among NFL quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (Joe Montana is second with a 33-10 mark).

·         McDermott is the third coach in Bills history to appear in 100 games with the franchise along with Levy and Lou Saban. He’s also moved past Saban for second in franchise annals in wins and the Bills haven’t lost coming off a bye week under him (in fact, they haven’t lost in their first game after a bye since 2014). However, he’s also 1-6 in overtime including playoffs.

·         Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 31-8 including playoffs.

·         Allen’s career record in primetime is 15-6 and he and McDermott are 5-1 on Sunday Night Football. They’re also 6-1 on Thursdays, but just 3-4 on Monday Night Football.

·         This past week snapped a streak which saw Allen throw for a touchdown in 23 straight games, a team record. He’s also broken Patrick Mahomes’ record for most scores by a quarterback in his first six seasons and he and Mahomes have the most total touchdowns in the NFL since 2018.

·         The Bills have won four games by 25 or more points this year – tied for their most ever in one season. They’ve also lost all six of their games by six points or less, the first team to do so since the 2015 Baltimore Ravens and ’12 Carolina Panthers.

·         Buffalo became the first team ever to convert 10 third downs, have 500 yards of offense and win the turnover battle and still lose when it happened against the Eagles. Teams were 39-0 before that, according to ESPN.

·         Cook has posted 100 or more scrimmage yards eight times in 2023. He’s also third in rushing, becoming the first Bill with 1,000 yards on the ground since LeSean McCoy in 2017. Cook also became the first Bill with 200 or more scrimmage yards, a rushing and a receiving score in a game since Thurman Thomas in 1991 and only the fourth Bill ever to accomplish the feat (Thomas in ’91 and ‘89, Greg Bell in ’84 and O.J. Simpson in ‘75).

·         Allen is just four rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 13 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals. He would also tie the Juice for the most rushing scores in one season as a Bill with his next.

·         Buffalo has won 10 of their last 11 against the Dolphins including playoffs. Allen is now 10-2 in his career against Miami. He became the first quarterback with multiple touchdown passes against one opponent in each of his first 12 games against them and last year became the only player in league history with 700-plus passing yards (704) and 100-plus rushing yards (124) against a team in one season.

·         McDermott’s record against the Dolphins is now 12-2 including playoffs and Allen is 7-0 at home against the Dolphins.

·         Although the Bills have owned Miami recently, the Dolphins may be catching up. All three of the games they played against one another a year ago were decided by three points or less, and Miami won the turnover battle in all three contests (this year’s 48-20 win not withstanding).

·         This is the third time since the 1970 merger that the AFC East will be decided in the final week of the regular season (1997 between New England and Miami was the last time it happened). The first was in 1981 between Buffalo and Miami.

·         Clinching the AFC East for the fourth straight year would also give the Bills the AFC’s second seed for the third time in four years.