by Tony Fiorello
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 27: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 27, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Welcome to Week Nine of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.
The Bills’ ninth game of 2024 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the Miami Dolphins. Here’s what you should know:
FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY - NOVEMBER 05: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins passes to Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins in the first quarter during the NFL match between Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at Deutsche Bank Park on November 05, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
MIAMI’S OFFENSE TRYING TO RETURN TO A HIGH LEVEL
After winning 10 games in 2020 for just the third time since 2008, owner Stephen Ross gave general manager Chris Grier – the brother of ex-Buffalo Sabres winger Mike Grier – the authority to build the team as he and former head coach Brian Flores saw fit. However, after a nine-win campaign in 2021 Grier decided to make a coaching change and replaced Flores with then-San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.
Under Flores, new faces were a constant at one area for Miami – offensive coordinator. While the basis of Flores’ philosophy stayed the same – using the Erhardt-Perkins concepts that his former employer, the New England Patriots, based their passing game around for more than 20 years – the man calling the plays changed in all three of Flores’ seasons in South Beach. After trying out Chad O’Shea and Chan Gailey in 2019 and ’20, Flores decided to promote then-tight ends coach George Godsey (a former coordinator with the Houston Texans) and running backs coach Eric Studesville to passing game and running game coordinator, respectively. Neither panned out.
In contrast, McDaniel – a longtime protégé of Mike and Kyle Shanahan – has brought their version of the West Coast offense to South Beach. The system is very creative in its ability to attack matchups and utilizes a lot of play-action passes, bootlegs and rollouts designed around the threat of outside-zone runs.
The Dolphins’ running philosophy relies on a mobile offensive line that pushes defenders from sideline to sideline on “stretch” runs that encourages its tailbacks to find holes on the opposite side of the play’s direction and cut back against the grain. Executing these blocks are former All-Pro Terron Armstead, Isaiah Wynn (out with an injury), Liam Eichenberg, Aaron Brewer, Austin Jackson and Robert Jones, versatile fullback Alec Ingold and tight ends Durham Smythe and Jonnu Smith, and allowed the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL despite fielding 11 different combinations a year ago.
While the outside/wide zone is the team’s foundational run, McDaniel will also use power plays, traps, sweeps and counters as a changeup tactic and will throw in some misdirection concepts like end-arounds and reverses as well. These are usually carried out by speed threats Raheem Mostert (who had a career year but has also suffered through knee and ankle issues), Jeff Wilson Jr. and De’Von Achane. This system has made many a star of running backs for decades and most of Miami’s runs are executed out of “21” personnel (two backs, one tight end).
The reason why the Shanahan coaching tree likes to have two running backs on the field most of the time is to give credibility to the belief that they will call a running play at any time while also taking advantage of smaller defenders who are used to being on the field to stop the pass and forcing the opposition to use more basic coverages. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Shanahan plays with two backs more than any schemer, by a wide margin…. with two backs in, the Niners compel defenses to prepare for more run possibilities, which limits their options in coverages. Shanahan exploits the suddenly predictable coverages through route combinations or mismatch-making formation wrinkles.”
Wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are similar receivers – each are polished route runners, have good hands and speed to burn, and are adept at picking up yards after the catch, especially on in-breaking routes. They can also return punts in a pinch and are liberally used by McDaniel in jet and orbit motion to influence defenders’ responsibilities and create leverage and space. Hill and Waddle are also dangerous ballcarriers and will sometimes line up at running back. They are backed up by former All-Pro Odell Beckham Jr., Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft (the latter two are both injured).
Hill is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. The “Cheetah” was on pace to break the NFL’s single-season record for yardage a year ago before an injury derailed those aspirations – Hill and Waddle’s speed dissuades the opposition from using single-high coverages against them.
Like his colleagues, McDaniel will have his wide receivers, running backs and tight ends line up in unusual places in the formation to determine if defenses are playing man or zone coverage and will have his wide receivers stay inside the numbers to give them extra room to run routes and to serve as additional blockers. His scheme makes excellent use of shifts and motions, especially to create false reads and favorable angles in the running game, and the receivers’ pass patterns work well off one another with many intersecting routes at all three levels.
At the helm of this attack is signal caller Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa, a rhythmic, precision passer and 2020’s fifth-overall draft pick out of Alabama, has most of his passing concepts come in the form of short and intermediate plays to play to his strengths as an intelligent passer who can get the ball out on time and to hide his limitations – particularly an arm that isn’t one of the league’s strongest, and he also isn’t comfortable going to his second and third reads in pass progressions. Nevertheless he finished first in the NFL in passing yards in 2023, but Tagovailoa suffered another in a long line of concussions in Week Two against Buffalo and while he’s now back his career and well-being are in question.
When healthy Miami’s offense is one of the league’s best. Early last year the Dolphins had a 70-point, 700-yard performance against the Denver Broncos (becoming the first team ever to put up both numbers in one game, the first to score 70 in a game since 1966 and just the fourth team ever to score 70 in a game) and were second in points, first in passing and total yards and sixth in rushing. This year (mainly due to the absence of their quarterback) Miami is dead-last in scoring, 22nd in total yards and 26th in passing but are still ninth in rushing and scored a season-high 27 points a week ago versus Arizona with Tagovailoa back in the fold.
Miami has shown to have one crucial weakness – while they are excellent out of their 3x1 (three wideouts on one side, one on the other) formations, they can be predictable in 2x2s (two on each side). They love to use play-action in this set and zone runs compared to gap runs in 3x1s – for more info, read this: What a difference one change in alignment makes for the Dolphins - Sports Info Solutions.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 27: Calais Campbell #93 of the Miami Dolphins warms up prior to an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals at Hard Rock Stadium on October 27, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
DOLPHINS’ DEFENSE HAS A SWITCH IN PHILOSOPHY - AGAIN
Heading into 2024, McDaniel has a new play-caller on this side of the ball for the third consecutive year. After inheriting Josh Boyer from Flores’ old staff in 2022 and trying out one of the best defensive minds in the NFL in Vic Fangio last season, McDaniel has done an about-face and switched to former Baltimore Ravens defensive line coach (and ex-Houston Texans coordinator) Anthony Weaver.
Weaver, naturally, brings a Ravens-flavor to South Beach. Baltimore traditionally has one of the most effective blitzing defenses in the NFL and mostly do so on overload and fire zone rushes out of single-high coverage looks – which aren’t totally foreign to the Dolphins given that Boyer employed similar coverage concepts on the back end.
Miami is led in their secondary by three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey (who is excellent in zone coverage) and Kendall Fuller. Kayden Kohou normally mans the slot and the team’s starting safeties are ex-Bill Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland (Holland and Kohou are currently injured, leading Ramsey to take snaps inside and Cam Smith to see more playing time on the outside). Backup Marcus Maye, a former New York Jet and New Orleans Saint, will be utilized heavily in three-safety packages, otherwise known as “big nickel”.
At linebacker the Dolphins employ Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips, David Long, Jordyn Brooks, Emmanuel Ogbah and rookie Demeioun “Chop” Robinson (Chubb, their sack leader a year ago, is on the PUP list and Phillips is out for the season), and their defensive linemen are veteran Calais Campbell, Benito Jones and Zach Sieler (out with an eye injury).
A year ago Miami was 10th in total yards given up, 15th versus the pass, eighth in takeaways, seventh against the run and third in sacks. But they were 22nd in points allowed, and the Dolphins ended 2023 with a 1-5 record against playoff teams with a -91 point differential against such opponents – only the New York Giants and Washington Commanders were worse. This year they’re 15th in points allowed, sixth in total yards surrendered, fourth versus the pass, second on third down and 16th against the run but given the injuries they’ve had, they’re struggling to rush the quarterback – Miami’s second-last in sacks, 27th in quarterback hits and 24th in pressure rate.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 27: Austin Johnson #98 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates with teammates after an interception during the third quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 27, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024
For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.
2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Los Angeles Rams), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Tyrel Dodson (Seattle Seahawks) and Shaq Lawson and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).
Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.
Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.
They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter (out due to wrist surgery) and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge.
Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and speed. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.
Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With this in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided a flash of his old All-Pro ability and speed with sacks in three of the team’s first four games. That ability will be welcomed after returning following his suspension for four weeks for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.
Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.
Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.
But for the second straight year, Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a major injury – this time a torn bicep –which means backup Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he’s shown flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needed to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid – which should bode well for his future while improving with more experience game by game.
Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.
The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage, and that setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.
With Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickups Mike Edwards and Kareem Jackson (who bring physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end), former Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick Lewis Cine and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete (Jackson and Cine are both on the practice squad).
At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis.
Despite injuries, the Bills’ defense has worked to the tune of 14 takeaways (sixth), sixth in points allowed, 12th in sacks, 13th against the pass, 16th in total yards allowed and 15th against the run. They’re also sixth in blitzing success rate, first in red zone defense and on fourth down (their offense is also first in that category).
A week ago Buffalo held Seattle to just 32 yards rushing and one yard in the first half – the second-fewest ground total they’ve surrendered in a first half this century (-11 in Week 17 versus Indianapolis in 2010).
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 27: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks for pass during the first quarter of the game against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 27, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
BILLS’ OFFENSE ONCE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT RETOOLING IN 2024
For four consecutive seasons, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Led by quarterback Josh Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, they allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).
In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play-caller Joe Brady.
Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical question on offense for Buffalo will be how to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.
Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers), “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) and “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.
The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays. Lately, Brady has been running the ball more – the Bills are 23rd in pass attempts.
Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some of those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within timing and structure.
Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.
Their biggest transaction on offense in the spring was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.
In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.
The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.
While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Deebo Samuel who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year man Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.
This group had been struggling to beat man coverage in recent games, and while more motion and bunch alignments may help in this regard Buffalo was lacking a true replacement for Diggs. Enter five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2025. Cooper, who is making less than a million dollars this season, fits what the Bills need both financially and on the field – boasting size, speed, excellent route-running and vertical ability and is deadly on in-breaking patterns over the middle.
Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.
The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.
The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted (currently they’re eighth in rushing attempts). Additionally, Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football (so far they’ve only given up 10 sacks, the best mark in the league).
So far that approach has continued in 2024. Buffalo has also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is Alec Anderson, and through eight games the Bills have had the highest rate of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – with most of them being called runs, and they also lead the NFL in yards per carry and yards per play with six linemen.
One area the Bills needed to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. This year Allen has thrown just one interception – a sign of progress in this regard (it’s the longest streak by a Bills quarterback to start a season in franchise annals and Allen became the third signal caller in NFL history to start a season with 10 touchdowns and no picks through his team’s first seven games).
While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 and hasn’t been great in 2024, to improve he will need to get over whatever mental block is impeding him.
Through eight weeks Buffalo is fifth in scoring, 13th in total yards, 15th in passing and 12th in rushing. But third down taken a dip. After leading the NFL in that category in each of the last two years, they’re near the bottom of the NFL so far and because of this downturn, they’re also among the worst in the league in average offensive snaps per game – a year ago, for reference, they were fifth (although they were eight for 15 on third down last week and had 38 minutes of ball possession).
Additionally, because of their heavy usage of the run and lack of production on early downs they’ve faced third-and-six or more on most of their drives.
McDermott and Brady also cost themselves a win three weeks ago while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened.
According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes. They’ll need to learn from that miscue going forward.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 27: Keon Coleman #0 of the Buffalo Bills catches a touchdown pass during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on October 27, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)
12 STATS TO MUSE OVER
· The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .667 (30-15) since 2019.
· Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 35-9 including playoffs. They’ve also had 15 home wins of 24 points or more since 2020, the most in the NFL in that span.
· Allen is just two rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 10 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals. He can also surpass Travis Henry for fifth in rushing yards.
· Allen has tied Joe Ferguson for second in Bils history in passing touchdowns (181). Jim Kelly is first with 237.
· According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on one of the highest figures in the NFL.
· Allen’s career record is 69-32. Including playoffs Allen is 12-2 all-time against Miami and since 2017 the Bills are 14-2 against Miami. Allen’s accounted for 39 touchdowns and seven picks in those games.
· Conversely, Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions against Buffalo – double the amount of any other opponent.
· Buffalo has rushed for touchdowns in 10 straight games going back to 2023 and have the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Detroit Lions (21).
· The Dolphins haven’t won a game in Buffalo since Christmas Eve 2016.
· Miller is the first defensive player in league history to sign two contracts worth at least $100 million. He is also vying to be the second player to win a Super Bowl with three different teams (Matt Millen was the first) and has tied Derrick Thomas for 17th on the all-time sack list. 1.5 more will tie him with Rickey Jackson for 16th.
· Strange but true – the Bills have lost each of their last three games on the day in which daylight savings time ends.
· Last week marked the first time the Bills had a 100-yard receiver (Shakir) and a 100-yard rusher (Cook) in the same game since Week 14 of 2018 (Robert Foster and Allen).
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