TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-JETS

by Tony Fiorello

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 06: Buffalo Bills Head coach Sean McDermott looks on during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on October 06, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)

Welcome to Week Six of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

The Bills’ sixth game of 2024 will take place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey as they face the New York Jets. Here’s what you should know:

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 19: Sauce Gardner #1 of the New York Jets defends in coverage during an NFL football game against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium on September 19, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

GANG GREEN’S DEFENSE BECOMING SEATTLE-LITE

Former Jets head coach Robert Saleh – who was fired this past Monday – arrived in the Big Apple three years ago from San Francisco where he oversaw a defense that was among the NFL’s better outfits between 2017-20. Saleh was one of the original architects, along with Pete Carroll, Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn, of the Seattle Seahawks’ fabled Cover Three scheme (featuring deep zone coverage on the outside with one safety in the box and a deep safety patrolling centerfield) which they employed en route to back-to-back NFC championships and a Super Bowl title between 2013-14. Saleh himself used those same tactics to help the 49ers make an appearance in Super Bowl LIV in 2019, although as of late New York has utilized more Cover Four and Cover One Robber concepts in the red zone.

In addition to his favored pass coverages, Saleh and defensive coordinator (and now interim head coach) Jeff Ulbrich would – like their predecessors – use one or two of their linemen to two-gap while the rest of the front seven will control just one, which eliminates the potential holes for opposing running backs to go through. They’ve also had their linemen liberally execute stunts, twists and slants out of overloaded fronts to open up one-on-one opportunities in pass rush situations, and fortunately for them the Jets are accumulating the talent needed to make this system go.

New York once had shaky depth among their defensive backs, but not anymore. Rangy and intelligent safeties Chuck Clark and Tony Adams patrol the Jets’ back end while former 49er and Seahawk D.J. Reed holds down one outside cornerback spot and Michael Carter II is in the slot.

The opposite boundary corner position is occupied by Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner. 2022’s fourth overall draft pick out of the University of Cincinnati, Gardner – who boasts smarts, length, strength to jam wideouts in press coverage and adeptness in both man and zone coverage, may be the best Cover Three corner to enter the NFL since Richard Sherman. Given the amount of zone the Jets use, they rarely ask Gardner or Reed to shadow top wideouts in man coverage.

Up front New York has a pair of talented defensive tackles in ex-49er Javon Kinlaw and All-Pro Quinnen Williams. Jermaine Johnson (out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon), Will McDonald IV, Michael Clemons and Takkarist McKinley are the team’s main edge rushers and they’re good enough to the point where Salah and Ulbrich hardly blitz (they should also be supplemented by former Eagles All-Pro Haason Reddick, but he’s currently embroiled in a contract holdout).

Veteran C.J. Mosley continues to display a high football IQ, athleticism and good technique. He, Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood are New York’s starters at linebacker. As talented as they are, however, they’ve shown a tendency to have problems containing running plays on crack-toss concepts and dealing with unusual formations – they don’t communicate well when trying to defend unbalanced lines, for example.

After ranking dead last in the NFL in points allowed and total yards surrendered in 2021, because they’ve accumulated more talent the Jets’ defense has taken some big leaps in improvement over the last few years while ranking among the league’s best in multiple categories. New York was fourth and third in total yards given up over the last two seasons and so far they’re second in total yards and passing yards allowed, fourth in sacks and tied for fifth in points given up, but 16th against the run and middle of the pack in takeaways. They’ve also been the second-most penalized defense in football (which doesn’t bode well this week since Adrian Hill is the assigned referee. His crew has thrown the third-most flags in the league).

London, United Kingdom - October 6: Aaron Rodgers of New York Jets controls the ball during the NFL match between New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on October 6, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

BIG APPLE’S OFFENSE STILL STRUGGLING

Between 2021-22 Saleh’s offensive coordinator was Mike LaFleur, the brother of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Mike’s system was identical to that of his brother’s and his former 49ers boss Kyle Shanahan’s – it emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. It’s a West Coast philosophy that can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field.

Due to ineffectiveness, LaFleur was canned at the end of 2022 in favor of former Denver Broncos head coach (and ex-Bills and Packers offensive coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett employs the same system that LaFleur has used, so there hasn’t been much of a change in offensive philosophy for Gang Green, yet while Hackett remains the coordinator he no longer calls plays on gameday – leaving those duties to former Raiders and Titans shot caller Todd Downing.

There have been major changes in the personnel that Hackett and Downing have at their disposal compared to who the Jets employed a few years ago. To make this unit go, a year ago Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas gave up on former first round draft pick Zach Wilson and traded for ex-Packer and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.

Now 40 years old, Rodgers remains as strong-armed, accurate and intelligent as he was earlier in his career, but what’s interesting about Rodgers is that at times he won’t play “on schedule”, as coaches like to put it. Sometimes he will try to play sandlot football – meaning not looking at his first receiver and holding onto the ball for too long to try and make a greater play than what the original call designed – but that approach may be working against him now as his mobility is declining thanks to a torn Achilles tendon suffered a year ago.

According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit: “Though he is capable of beating defenses with presnap reads and quick throws, Rodgers frequently passes up open receivers and leaves clean pockets, which would warrant a reprimand for most QBs. But he’s so exceptional that he often goes on to make a better play.

“The tricky part is that Rodgers’s approach is more conducive to spread formations and isolation routes which, when relied upon too heavily, can lead to dry spells in the passing game. The challenge is to find the proper mix.”

Those isolation routes – which ask for a receiver to win his one-on-one matchup at the line of scrimmage – and a lack of motion and shifts are being blamed for the Jets’ offensive incompetence. Since the Jets’ wideouts aren’t beating their competition, they may need to have more route combinations open up space for them to get separation – that task is up to Downing and Hackett to figure out.

Those wide receivers include Garrett Wilson, ex-Charger Mike Williams and Allen Lazard, and all are capable of carrying out Rodgers’ favorite routes, which include such LaFleur/Hackett staples as slants, posts and back-shoulder fades. Tyler Conklin, who is particularly good on seam routes, is New York’s tight end.

Breece Hall is the Jets’ top running back and is backed up by rookie Braelon Allen. The two operate behind an offensive line that has undergone a facelift – while Alijah Vera-Tucker remains Gang Green’s right guard, new faces include former All-Pro Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson, Joe Tippmann and rookie first round pick Olu Fashanu, who struggled while Moses was out with an injury (his concerns coming out of Penn State remain, in that he has balance and body control issues while reaching and lunging at defenders too often and displaying stiffness in pass protection).

Like they have the last few years, New York has shown to be ineffective in the trenches. Their biggest problem has been providing production on the ground, as they have struggled in reaching the second level of defenses in the run game – especially on first and second down, resulting in being dead-last in rushing.

Few other areas on offense have been better statistically for the Jets. So far they’re 27th in total yards, 19th in passing and 25th in scoring. Additionally, they haven’t scored more than 22 points in each of their last 10 outings against the Bills.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 06: Tank Dell #3 of the Houston Texans is tackled by Terrel Bernard #43 of the Buffalo Bills in the first half at NRG Stadium on October 06, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.

2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Los Angeles Rams), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Tyrel Dodson (Seattle Seahawks) and Shaq Lawson and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).

Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.

Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator (Oliver is out for a second straight game with a hamstring ailment).

They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge.

Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and speed. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.

Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With this in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided a flash of his old All-Pro ability and speed with sacks in three of the team’s first four games. That ability will be missed after being suspended four weeks for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.

Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.

But for the second straight year, Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a major injury – this time a torn bicep –which means backup Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he’s shown flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid – which should bode well for his future.

Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.

The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage, and that setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.

With Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages on the back end now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickups Mike Edwards and Kareem Jackson (who bring physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end), former Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick Lewis Cine and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete.

At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite but is questionable with a forearm injury. If out again, he will be replaced by tweener Cam Lewis.

So far the dime setup has returned with Lewis manning the linebacker spot and Ingram taking over in the slot. It’s worked to the tune of nine takeaways (tied for fourth), 11th in points allowed and 13th against the pass. But they’re 21st in total yards allowed, 26th against the run and have struggled on third down (24th).

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 06: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills signals at the line of scrimmage in the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on October 06, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

BILLS’ OFFENSE ONCE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT STRUGGLING LAST TWO WEEKS

Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football over the last four years (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).

In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also first in third down rate and fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady.

Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical change on offense for Buffalo will be to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.

Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers), “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) and “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.

The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays. Lately, Brady has been running the ball more on first down – the Bills are second-last in first down pass attempts with a run called 61 percent of the time.

Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure. Over the last two weeks, however, Buffalo has gotten away from these concepts and need to return to them.

Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.

Their biggest transaction on offense was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.

In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.

The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.

While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel – a poor-man’s Deebo Samuel who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs, but hasn’t been utilized much lately – and deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who needs to work on his inconsistent hands. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year man Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage. Lately this group has been struggling to beat man coverage – more motion and bunch alignments may help in this regard.

Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.

The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.

The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. Additionally, Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football.

So far that approach has continued in 2024. Buffalo has run the ball on one of the highest figures in the NFL and have also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is now Alec Anderson, and through five games the Bills have had one of the highest rates of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – most of them being called runs.

One area the Bills need to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. So far they’re tied for the least turnovers in the NFL through five weeks, but Buffalo has been living on the edge in this regard. In their last two weeks, Allen has been blitzed at a higher rate and has been leaving the pocket prematurely while throws are there for the taking.

While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 – the question with him is, was it because he was getting acclimated to a new holder, or was it a mental block? Time will tell.

Through five weeks Buffalo is fifth in scoring, 23rd in total yards, 26th in passing and 14th in rushing. They’re also seventh in red zone percentage, but third down has taken a dip. After leading the NFL in that category in each of the last two years, they’re 25th through five games. Because of this downturn, they’re 28th in average offensive snaps per game – a year ago, for reference, they were fifth.

Additionally they’re 28th in average yardage on first down, and because of their heavy usage of the run and lack of production on early downs they’ve faced third-and-six or more on two-thirds of their drives.

McDermott and Brady also cost themselves a win last week while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened.

According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes. They’ll need to learn from that miscue going forward.

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 06: Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman (0) sprints to the end zone in the third quarter during the NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans on October 6, 2024 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

12 STATS TO MUSE OVER

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .651 (28-15) since 2019.

·         Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 34-9 including playoffs.

·         Allen is just two rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 11 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals.

·         According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on 38.4 percent of their snaps – the highest figure in the NFL.

·         Allen hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year – it’s the longest streak by a Bills quarterback to start a season in franchise annals.

·         Allen also has never lost three straight regular season games. According to Mike Catalana, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games in each of the last four years and their combined record after those losses is 26-2.

·         The Bills are 7-4 in their last 11 games against the Jets with Allen as their starter, and five of those games being decided by seven points or less (the home team has won the last five games between these two). Also they’re 20-5 against the AFC East since 2020 – tied for the best record against divisional opponents with Kansas City.

·         This is the fourth primetime game in Buffalo’s first six weeks – tied with three other teams for the most that any NFL team has ever played (2015 and ’23 New York Giants, 2022 Denver Broncos) – and it’s their last night game until Week 13 against San Francisco. Allen’s career record in primetime is 17-7 and he and McDermott are 4-4 on Monday Night Football (5-0 on Thursdays, 6-2 on Sunday Night Football).

·         Interim coaches have gone 16-13 in their first game coaching since 2010, according to Fox Sports, and in the Super Bowl era only one team has reached the postseason after having a midseason coaching change – the 2021 Las Vegas Raiders.

·         Rodgers has struggled against the Bills, never throwing for 300 yards or three touchdowns versus them in his entire career. His passer rating versus Buffalo all-time is 74.9.

·         Allen’s completion percentage last week against Houston (30 percent) was the worst of his career and the worst of any quarterback with 30 or more attempts in a game in the last 32 years.

·         Buffalo has a 69-58 record against the Jets all-time, their best winning percentage against a divisional opponent and their point differential (plus-88) against them since 2020 is tied for the fifth-highest by any team against one opponent in that span.