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TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-TEXANS

by Tony Fiorello

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)


Welcome to Week Five of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.


The Bills’ fifth game of 2024 will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas as they face the Houston Texans. Here’s what you should know:

HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 29: Nico Collins #12 of the Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud #7 walk to the huddle in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)


TEXANS’ OFFENSE EFFECTIVE

The Houston Texans are a much different squad now compared to the last time they reached the playoffs in 2019. Since Bill O’Brien was fired following 2020 they’ve gone through three head coaches, and after the disappointing tenures of David Culley and Lovie Smith it seems as if general manager Nick Caserio has finally gotten it right with ex-San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator (and former Texans linebacker) DeMeco Ryans.


A year ago Ryans led the Texans to a surprising AFC South division title, the seventh in franchise history. He and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik have brought a system to Houston that worked for them by the Bay, and what also worked for them years ago under Gary Kubiak – the Shanahan-style of the West Coast offense. Slowik has used a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. The system can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field.


No position has seen as much change in Houston than quarterback. Once led by one of the NFL’s best signal callers in Deshaun Watson, Watson was traded to the Cleveland Browns in 2022 following several legal problems and his successor has proven to be C.J. Stroud. The former first-round pick from Ohio State has shown a good sense of timing, accuracy and patience in the pocket with solid mechanics and is a quick processor of coverages. He’s also athletic enough to make second-reaction plays and is cool under pressure. He’s also the youngest quarterback (22) and highest-drafted rookie (second overall) to win a playoff game, and last year he and Ryans became just the fifth rookie signal caller and head coach to make the playoffs.


The Texans have a solid one-two punch at running back in former Cincinnati Bengal Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Mixon is one of pro football’s better running backs when healthy, and his solid vision and good cutback ability mesh well with Houston’s scheme. Both are injured though, leaving the job to ex-Ram Cam Akers.


Executing blocks on the offensive line are former first-round pick Tytus Howard, Shaq Mason, Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs and Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil is athletic and – aside from perhaps the 49ers’ Trent Williams – might be the league’s best offensive tackle in getting out to the perimeter to block for screens. This unit, however, has struggled early in the season in both in pass protection and the running game.


Before the 2024 season began, Caserio and Ryans acquired ex-Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to supplement Houston’s pass-catching depth. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations in Buffalo, and has brought his competitive fire to H-Town.


Stroud’s additional targets in the passing game are the blossoming Nico Collins – who is emerging as one of the league’s premier boundary ‘X’ receivers – veteran Robert Woods (who still offers some value as a possession receiver and is a good blocker) and Tank Dell, and Houston’s tight end is ex-Dallas Cowboy Dalton Schultz.


Houston was 12th in total offense, seventh in passing, 23rd in rushing and 14th in points in 2023. So far this year the numbers have been similar to those of a year ago – eighth in total offense, third in passing, 19th in rushing and 17th in points scored.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 29: Will Anderson Jr. #51 of the Houston Texans in action in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)


HOUSTON’S DEFENSE SOLID

Like their counterparts on offense, the Texans’ defense is also missing numerous players and coaches who have helped the team in years past. Among others, J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney and Romeo Crennel are no longer there, and Ryans’ preference for the Cover Three scheme that he coached in San Francisco (with deep zone coverage from the outside cornerbacks, one safety patrolling centerfield and another near the line of scrimmage) has taken over in H-Town.


Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke’s pass rush is spearheaded by one of the league’s best edge duos in Will Anderson Jr. (who was 2023’s Defensive Rookie of the Year) and former All-Pro Danielle Hunter. They are joined in the starting front four by Mario Edwards and Folorunso Fatukasi, and ex-Bills Jerry Hughes and Tim Settle, Derek Barnett and Khalil Davis are key rotational pieces for the Texans (Hughes and Barnett are both out with injuries).


At linebacker Houston employs a trio of aggressive second level defenders in Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris and Henry To’oTo’o. On the back end, Derek Stingley Jr. is showing why he was a high first round draft pick in 2022 while rookie Kamari Lassiter is the other starter at cornerback (veterans Myles Bryant, Desmond King II and Jeff Okudah – currently injured – are depth cornerbacks). Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward are Houston’s safeties.


The Texans ended 2023 14th in total yards, 23rd against the pass, sixth versus the run and 11th in points allowed. They were also 15th in sacks and tied for 16th in takeaways. Through four weeks in 2024 Houston is 22nd in points allowed, 13th versus the run, fourth against the pass and fifth in total yards, and tied for fourth in sacks.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Justice Hill #43 of the Baltimore Ravens is tackled by Rasul Douglas #31 of the Buffalo Bills at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)


BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.


2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White (Los Angeles Rams), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Shaq Lawson, Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Tyrel Dodson (Seattle Seahawks) and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).


Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.


Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator (Oliver is out for Sunday’s game with a hamstring ailment).


They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants – he’s also out for Sunday), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge.


Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and a lack of versatility along the defensive line. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.


Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With this in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s back now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played) but has provided a flash of his old All-Pro ability and speed with sacks in three of the team’s first four games. That ability will be missed for the next four weeks after being suspended for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.


Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.


Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.


But for the second straight year, Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a major injury – this time a torn bicep –which means backup Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he’s shown flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid – which should bode well for his future (so far he’s averaged more than nine tackles a game – the most by any Bill over a four game stretch since 1996). Bernard has missed each of the last two games after sustaining a pectoral injury against Miami but may return this week.


Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.


The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage, and that setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.


With Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages on the back end now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickups Mike Edwards and Kareem Jackson (who bring physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end), former Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick Lewis Cine and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete. Bishop will get his first career start this week after Rapp suffered a concussion a week ago.


At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite but might miss a fourth straight game with a forearm injury. If so, he will be replaced by tweener Cam Lewis.


So far the dime setup has returned with Lewis manning the linebacker spot and Ingram taking over in the slot. It’s worked to the tune of seven takeaways (tied for fifth), 12th in points allowed, 14th in total yards given up and sixth against the pass. They’ve also allowed just one passing play of 25 yards or more, which is the best mark in the NFL (and they’ve allowed the least such plays in the league since 2017 by a wide margin). But they’re third-last against the run after giving up 271 yards on the ground to Baltimore last week, and all five of the Ravens’ touchdowns last week came out of heavier personnel. In fact, the Ravens had just 17 out of 54 offensive snaps with three wide receivers on the field.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills is tackled by Odafe Oweh #99 of the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)


BILLS’ OFFENSE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT EVOLVING

Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football over the last four years (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).


In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also first in third down rate and fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady.


Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical change on offense for Buffalo will be to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.


Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers), “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) and “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.


The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays.


Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions, (so far they’ve used pre-snap motion at one of the highest rates in the league), designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure.


Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.


Their biggest transaction on offense was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.


In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty and Andy Isabella walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.


The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.


While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel – a poor-man’s Deebo Samuel who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs – and deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who needs to work on his inconsistent hands. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year man Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage (Shakir is out for Sunday’s game with an ankle ailment).


Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.


The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.


The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. Rushing for 266 yards against Dallas was the most such yardage under Sean McDermott since 2017 and was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football.


So far that approach has continued in 2024. Buffalo has run the ball on one of the highest figures in the NFL and have also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is now Alec Anderson, and through four games the Bills have had one of the highest rates of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – most of them being called runs.


One area the Bills need to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years, they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year.


While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 – the question with him is, was it because he was getting acclimated to a new holder, or was it a mental block? Time will tell.


Through four weeks Buffalo is second in scoring, 20th in total yards and passing, and 17th in rushing.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills rushes the ball against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)


12 STATS TO MUSE OVER

·         Allen has compiled 43 career regular season games with a passer rating of 100 or better and has reached that mark in 26 of his last 43 outings. In those games Buffalo’s record is 40-3, and he had a perfect quarterback rating against Miami in Week Four of last year – Doug Flutie was the only other Bills passer to accomplish that feat in a game back in 2000.

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .667 (28-14) since 2019.

·         Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 34-9 including playoffs.

·         Before last week against Baltimore, the Bills hadn’t lost a game by more than six points in their prior 43 outings – the longest streak in NFL history.

·         Allen is just two rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 11 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals.

·         According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth).

·         Buffalo hasn’t won in Houston since a 24-21 victory on November 19, 2006.

·         Since 2019 Buffalo is 18-5 in the week after a loss.

·         According to ESPN, if Allen doesn’t throw an interception this week it will be the longest streak by a Bills quarterback to start a season in franchise annals.

·         Last week Allen was held without a passing or rushing score for the first time since November 7, 2021.

·         McDermott has fared well against first and second-year signal callers – he’s limited them to a 69.7 passer rating with 21 touchdowns and 30 interceptions since 2017.

·         Buffalo has faced Houston just twice in the regular season since 2017 – tied for the fewest of any AFC team including Cleveland. Including their wild-card playoff game in 2019, they’ve gone against one another just three times.

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