TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF BILLS-TITANS

by Tony Fiorello

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 14: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 14, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

Welcome to Week Seven of the 2024 NFL season. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming opponent and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

The Bills’ seventh game of 2024 will take place at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York as they face the Tennessee Titans. Here’s what you should know:

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 30: Calvin Ridley #0 and DeAndre Hopkins #10 of the Tennessee Titans speak on the field during the second half of the game against the Tennessee Titans at Hard Rock Stadium on September 30, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

THE MCVAY/SHANAHAN OFFENSE STILL RESIDES IN TENNESSEE

New Titans head coach Brian Callahan – the former offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals and son of longtime NFL offensive line coach Bill Callahan (who now teaches Tennessee’s front five) – is continuing Tennessee’s recent tradition of employing the McVay/Shanahan offense. The system, which was originally installed in Nashville under former head coach Mike Vrabel’s first play-caller, Matt LaFleur (who worked with the Shanahans for years before eventually becoming head coach in Green Bay), was continued under Arthur Smith and Todd Downing and is now being utilized by the Callahans and current coordinator Nick Holz.

Brian Callahan, who worked for Zac Taylor in Cincinnati (a former disciple of Sean McVay’s in Los Angeles, who once worked for Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay) and Bill Callahan, who worked with Gruden in Oakland and Philadelphia (and with Jay Gruden and McVay in Washington), know the West Coast offense all too well. Like their former colleagues, they use a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. It’s a system that can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field.

A year ago Tennessee drafted Will Levis, a quarterback from Kentucky, in the second round. Levis, who has some dual threat ability, possesses a big arm and size but has some issues. Holding on to the ball for too long while getting stuck in the pocket, not processing coverages quickly enough and erratic ball location and poor decision-making have worked against him in the NFL, but he will miss this week’s game due to injury.

Ex-Pittsburgh Steelers backup Mason Rudolph will get the starting nod. Rudolph doesn’t have elite physical traits but has a solid arm and doesn’t turn the ball over. Given his limited skills, the Titans will likely try to manage his pass attempts by taking deep shots down the field off play-action if their running game is working.

That running game, held down for so long by one of the NFL’s best power runners in Derrick Henry (who continued the tradition of great Titans/Houston Oilers backs such as Earl Campbell, Eddie George and Chris Johnson) has a new face in former Dallas Cowboy Tony Pollard, who is a versatile and explosive running back who can align all over the formation.

Former All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins might not be the fastest wideout in football but he succeeds with physicality, body control, route-running ability and excellent hands – akin to Hall of Famer Cris Carter. He’s also versatile by being able to align all over the formation and is especially adept on intermediate in-breaking routes over the middle of the field. Ditto that of Calvin Ridley, the ex-Atlanta Falcon and Jacksonville Jaguars, who was acquired in the spring. Shifty slot receiver Tyler Boyd came with Callahan from the Bengals and former first round pick Treylon Burks rounds out the receiving corps, but is currently injured. The tight ends are Chig Okonkwo and Josh Whyle.

Tennessee’s offensive line is going through a youth movement. Former first round picks J.C. Latham and Peter Skoronski hold down the fort on the left side while Dillon Radunz and rookie LeRoy Watson are on the right, with former Denver Bronco Lloyd Cushenberry at center. This unit has struggled in pass protection but executed well in the run game.

The Titans are 15th in rushing but second-last in passing and in total yards per game. They’re also 21st in scoring, but they’ve only trailed at halftime once this year and have been in the lead or tied going into the fourth quarter in four of their five games in 2024.

CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 08: Jeffery Simmons (98) of the Tennessee Titans tackles D'Andre Swift (4) of the Chicago Bears during the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 8, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Ben Hsu/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

THERE IS A DECIDEDLY RAVEN FLAVOR IN “SMASHVILLE”

New defensive play-caller Dennard Wilson was hired from the Baltimore Ravens in the spring and has brought the Raven’s scheme to Nashville. Wilson, a former defensive backs coach in Baltimore and Philadelphia, has quite a bit of talent on this side of the ball.

The Titans’ scheme is characterized by simulated pressures at the line of scrimmage with a lot of coverage disguises with late movement and press coverage on the back end. They also like overload and fire zone blitzes out of single-high coverage looks.

Wilson has a good front-seven to execute these schemes. An underrated defensive line led by two-time All-Pro Jeffery Simmons, rookie extraordinaire T’Vondre Sweat (who at 6’4” and 366 pounds has quick feet for a big man) and Sebastian Joseph-Day make life easier for edge rushers Harold Landry and Arden Key, and Ernest Jones and Kenneth Murray have size to go along with speed.

Tennessee’s defensive backfield is held down by one of the NFL’s better cornerbacks in L’Jarius Sneed and he is complemented by Jarvis Brownlee and slot corner Roger McCreary. Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs are a solid safety pair.

Despite being just 13th in points allowed and not producing much in terms of turnovers, the Titans’ defense has been very good this season. As of press time, they’re first in total yards and passing yards allowed, ninth versus the run, fifth in third down rate and fourth in red zone touchdown percentage.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 14: Taron Johnson #7 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates an interception with Terrel Bernard #43 during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 14, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

BUFFALO’S DEFENSE USUALLY ELITE, BUT UNDERGOING CHANGES IN 2024

For most of head coach Sean McDermott’s time in Buffalo, the Bills’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Points allowed (fourth in the NFL in that category in 2023), total yards per game allowed (ninth), passing yards given up (seventh), rushing yards surrendered (15th), takeaways (third), interceptions (tied for fourth) and sacks (fourth, tied for second-most in their history with the 2014 team) have generally been the categories that the Bills have excelled at over the years, with last season’s sack total being the best in the McDermott era.

2024, however, will be a year of transition for the Bills on defense. Due to age and salary cap complications, out the door are longtime veterans such as Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer (Dolphins), Tre’Davious White (Los Angeles Rams), Leonard Floyd (San Francisco 49ers, who had 10.5 sacks a year ago – the most of any Bill since Lorenzo Alexander in 2016), Jordan Phillips and Linval Joseph (Dallas Cowboys), Tim Settle (Houston Texans), Kaylon “Poona” Ford (Los Angeles Chargers), Tyrel Dodson (Seattle Seahawks) and Shaq Lawson and Dane Jackson (Carolina Panthers).

Including names from the past such as Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei, Carlos “Boogie” Basham and Harrison Phillips, that’s a lot of turnover over the last eight years – none more so than this past offseason. The answer, according to McDermott, general manager Brandon Beane and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich (who will get the opportunity to call plays this season) is youth and cheap veterans to provide cost-effective depth.

Some of those younger players – albeit young veterans since they are in their fourth and fifth professional seasons, respectively – who will be asked to take on a greater role include Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who can line up both on the edge and go inside in passing situations. Da’Quan Jones, perhaps their best run-stuffing lineman, is back healthy after tearing a pectoral muscle against Jacksonville last October and is effective on T-T stunts with Ed Oliver, an excellent gap penetrator.

They will be backed up by versatile free agent pickups Austin Johnson (who comes from the Chargers after stints with Tennessee and the Giants), Dawuane Smoot (Jacksonville) and Casey Toohill (Washington) along with rookies DeWayne Carter and Javon Solomon. Toohill is a core special teamer who reminds some of a more athletic Trent Murphy due to his length, height and movement skills while Solomon has been compared to a younger Elvis Dumervil with his lack of height yet long arms and strength and explosiveness off the edge.

Over the years Buffalo has been inconsistent in two areas – creating a consistent pass rush (last year not withstanding) and, from time to time, stopping the run. These issues are mainly caused by poor tackling (their missed and broken tackle percentage has been among the highest in the NFL over the years), a lack of gap integrity and speed. They also gave up 4.6 yards a carry on inside runs last year, 30th in the NFL. Another issue was the Bills giving up tying or go-ahead drives in the final two minutes in four of their six losses last year – meaning they struggled to close out games.

Beyond improving against the run, the Bills had also lacked an elite pass rusher off the edge who could command double teams on a consistent basis since Mario Williams was employed 10 years ago. With this in mind, two years ago Beane signed future Hall of Famer Von Miller. But Miller suffered a torn ACL after putting up eight sacks in 11 games and missed the first four games of last season while recovering on the PUP list. He’s healthy now and was on a snap count as he shook off the rust (although by his own admission he shouldn’t have played in 2023) but has provided a flash of his old All-Pro ability and speed with sacks in three of the team’s first four games. That ability, however, won’t be available after being suspended four weeks for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Schematically the Bills’ defense mostly relies on basic zones after the snap (they’re usually among the top units in the NFL in usage of coverages with two high safeties such as Cover Two, Four and Six) but before the snap it is complex – safety rotations to disguise their intentions keep opposing quarterbacks guessing and selective pressure looks at the line of scrimmage and coverage exchanges are the team’s calling cards.

Those blitz looks usually happen in the A-gaps with the smaller, but smart, speedy and athletic Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard (who replaced the departed Tremaine Edmunds last year) to confuse opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, but Buffalo rarely sends five or more pass rushers – their favorite blitz tactic besides A-gappers are four-man zone exchanges. Bernard has become a good blitzer and coverage ‘backer – his 6.5 sacks in 2023 were the most by an off-the-ball linebacker in Bills annals and he became the first NFL player since Seth Joyner in 1991 with six sacks, three picks and three fumble recoveries in a season.

But for the second straight year, Milano is out for the foreseeable future after suffering a major injury – this time a torn bicep –which means backup Dorian Williams will need to pick up the slack. The Bills struggled to defend the run well last year because of a lack of experience by Williams – he’s shown flashes of quickness and burst but was slow to key and diagnose at the line of scrimmage. He also took many false steps and needs to process better while in coverage, but is athletic, long and fluid – which should bode well for his future while improving game by game.

Additional depth comes from Baylon Spector and rookie Joe Andreessen. Andreessen, a University at Buffalo product who hails from nearby Lancaster, showed excellent diagnostic skills at the line of scrimmage in the preseason while also displaying strong hands, a quick downhill trigger that allows him to shoot gaps well and some speed and range. It helps that the rookie played in a similar role as Milano while in college.

The Bills mainly utilize nickel personnel, as evidenced by Buffalo using five defensive backs between 90 and 100 percent of their snaps since 2020. They did use more dime personnel after Milano’s injury last year with three safeties to help offset the loss of Milano in pass coverage, and that setup featured Hyde and ex-Ram Taylor Rapp on the back end and Poyer near the line of scrimmage.

With Hyde and Poyer’s elite ability to disguise coverages now gone, the Bills’ safety positions are now manned by Rapp (who is better playing near the line of scrimmage), the rangy and physical but inconsistent Damar Hamlin, veteran pickups Mike Edwards and Kareem Jackson (who bring physicality and smarts and can play in the box or on the back end), former Minnesota Vikings first round draft pick Lewis Cine and rookie Cole Bishop, who is an underrated and cerebral athlete.

At the boundary cornerback spots replacing White and Jackson are Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, and are backed up by the tall and physical Ja’Marcus Ingram and Kaiir Elam, who has underwhelmed so far as a pro. Douglas, an ex-Green Bay Packer and Philadelphia Eagle, has great size and length, is versatile and a gambler – he can take chances because he understands route combinations very well (he led the NFL in takeaways last year with six after he was acquired). Slot corner Taron Johnson remains elite – especially in in the quickness and tackling departments – and he’s backed up by tweener Cam Lewis.

Despite injuries, the Bills’ defense has worked to the tune of 10 takeaways (tied for seventh), 11th in points allowed and sacks and 15th against the pass. But they’re 21st in total yards allowed and 23rd against the run.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 22: Amari Cooper #2 of the Cleveland Browns makes a reception against Deonte Banks #3 of the New York Giants during the fourth quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

BILLS’ OFFENSE ONCE AN UPPER-ECHELON UNIT, BUT RETOOLING IN 2024

Led by quarterback Josh Allen and a cadre of gifted pass-catchers, the Bills boasted one of the NFL’s elite offenses for the first time since the K-Gun was running roughshod over the league more than 30 years ago. Allen’s improved processing skills, ball placement, patience within the pocket and touch on passes allowed Buffalo to become one of the most feared attacks in pro football over the last four years (last year Allen was fourth in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns while tying for third in rushing scores – leading the league in total yards and touchdowns in the process).

In 2023 the Bills were sixth in scoring, fourth in total yards, seventh in rushing and eighth in passing. They were also first in third down rate and fifth in red zone efficiency, yet their offense performed poorly over a six-game stretch where they averaged just 20.5 points per game. It resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey getting the boot in favor of quarterbacks coach and former Carolina Panthers play caller Joe Brady.

Like their defensive counterparts, the Bills are going through changes on this side of the ball because of age, the salary cap and a new coordinator. With Brady taking over the role full-time, the biggest philosophical change on offense for Buffalo will be to retain elements of what made them so good in the first place while adding in new and fresh concepts.

Between 2018 and last year, Buffalo’s offense was an Erhardt-Perkins system brought in from New England by then-coordinator Brian Daboll. It was built upon concepts involving option and crossing routes from the slot, downfield routes from the outside, run-pass options (especially in the red zone), designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Allen’s mobility and alignments that create favorable matchups and some trick plays with jet/orbit motion and sweeps. It was mostly out of “11” personnel groupings (one back, one tight end and three wide receivers), “10” personnel (one back, no tight ends, four receivers) and “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) – and would also go no-huddle from time to time to limit the opposition’s defensive calls.

The Bills’ multi-receiver sets were traditionally their offensive calling card. In 2020 they used four wide receivers or more 155 times – the second-most in the NFL at the time – and they utilized someone in motion on 43 percent of their offensive snaps, a huge increase from their 25 percent rate in 2019. Daboll, now the head coach of the New York Giants, also called for a passing play on 64 percent of their first downs, according to ESPN Stats and Information (no team with a winning record in the prior 20 years did it more than Buffalo) and that rate continued in 2021 and ’22 with “11” personnel used on nearly three-quarters of their plays. Lately, Brady has been running the ball more – the Bills are second-last in pass attempts entering Week Seven.

Daboll’s successor, Ken Dorsey, got away from some those concepts and tried to rely on the talent at his disposal winning one-on-one matchups instead of having the scheme help them get open. Once Brady was promoted, the Bills returned to them. He also included more under-center formations and play-action (which can still stand to increase after being a top-four team in run-fakes in 2020 and ’21), pre-snap shifts, motions and designed passes to running backs and route combinations with defined reads for Allen so he can play within structure.

Brady got his start in the NFL working for the New Orleans Saints and then-coach Sean Payton. Payton himself came from a melting pot of a background including stints running the Erhardt-Perkins scheme for Bill Parcells in Dallas and learning the West Coast offense from Jim Fassel in New York with the Giants and from Jon Gruden during their one-year stint together in Philadelphia in 1997, so Brady will bring a similar approach to the table while likely keeping some things the same in Buffalo.

Their biggest transaction on offense was trading the aging Stefon Diggs to Houston. Diggs, while never a burner on the outside, was an exceptional route runner who specialized in making contested catches and operated well out of bunch and stack formations – leading him to re-write many of the Bills’ single season receiving records.

In addition to Diggs, Buffalo has let veterans Gabriel Davis, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty walk over the years. Many of them were productive, but nothing can last forever – hence the overhaul of the Bills’ wide receiver room in 2024.

The Payton offense is built through having big, physical targets who can get open over the middle of the field, especially on deep in-cuts, or “dig” routes. Payton has employed such players in those roles before like Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Michael Thomas and Courtland Sutton, and the drafting of rookie Keon Coleman from Florida State fits the bill for Brady. Coleman, whose game evoked comparisons to Colston, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin coming out of college, brings size and physicality to the boundary ‘X’ position with good body control and strong hands to make contested catches and has some run after the catch ability. He does need to work on his speed, quickness and ability to beat press coverage, but in time he may improve in those areas.

While not a burner at the position (like free agent pickup Mack Hollins, who has similar skills), Coleman will be accentuated by speed in the form of Curtis Samuel, a poor-man’s Deebo Samuel who can line up both in the slot and outside the numbers and take handoffs. That speed was needed since Buffalo was just 28th in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more last season according to Trumedia, and shifty third-year man Khalil Shakir returns to man the slot with his quickness, sure hands and savviness to get open versus zone coverage.

Lately this group has been struggling to beat man coverage, and while more motion and bunch alignments may help in this regard Buffalo was lacking a true replacement for Diggs. Enter five-time Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, who was acquired from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a third-round draft pick in 2025. Cooper, who is making less than $1 million this season, fits what the Bills need both financially and on the field – boasting size, speed, excellent route-running and vertical ability and is deadly on in-breaking patterns over the middle.

Tight end Dawson Knox is joined by second-year man Dalton Kincaid, and their diverse skillsets should allow the Bills to throw curveballs at opponents with multiple tight end sets. Kincaid lived up to the hype with 73 receptions a year ago, the most of any Bills rookie and surpassed Pete Metzelaars for the most catches by a Bills tight end in one season. He also became the fourth rookie tight end since 1960 with 70 or more catches in a year.

The Bills’ offensive line is composed of Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern (taking over at center for the departed Mitch Morse), O’Cyrus Torrence and Spencer Brown. This crew (which last year became the first unit to start every game in a regular season for Buffalo since 1989) along with fullback Reggie Gilliam has mainly executed outside zone runs along with zone-reads, pin-and-pull concepts, traps (especially with Dawkins as the puller), counters, split inside zone/duo and sprint draw plays sprinkled in for running back James Cook. Cook, who had a breakout season in his first campaign as the starter, is backed up by physical rookie Ray Davis and ex-Jet Ty Johnson provides valuable depth with his receiving skills.

The starting front five had been iffy in providing push in the running game and in pass protection over the last couple of years but has become a strength. In the past, most of the team’s rushing production came from Allen’s legs and few came from their backs – the Bills’ rushing attempts per game in 2022, 18.2, was last in the NFL but that number jumped to the highest in the NFL after Brady was promoted. Additionally, Allen was taken down just 24 times overall in 17 regular season outings – the best mark in pro football (so far they’ve only given up eight sacks, second-best in the league).

So far that approach has continued in 2024. Buffalo has run the ball on one of the highest figures in the NFL and have also carried over their trend of using an extra offensive lineman to help in the running game. Now that Edwards has moved into the starting lineup, that extra guy is now Alec Anderson, and through six games the Bills have had one of the highest rates of offensive snaps with six linemen on the field – most of them being called runs.

One area the Bills needed to clean up is protecting the ball. Over the last two years they were one the league’s sloppiest teams – Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles in 2022 and Allen led the NFL with 18 interceptions last year. So far Allen hasn’t thrown an interception this season – a sign of progress in this regard.

While punter Sam Martin and kicker Tyler Bass have been excellent in the past, Bass has been a bit shaky lately. When Martin was named the NFL’s Special Teams Player of the Month in December – the first Bills punter to do so since Brian Moorman in November 2006 – and Bass collected the same honor earlier in the year, it was the first time both Bills specialists have won the award in one season. But Bass’ field goal percentage took a dip in 2023 – the question with him is, was it because he was getting acclimated to a new holder, or was it a mental block? Time will tell.

Through six weeks Buffalo is seventh in scoring, 21st in total yards, 25th in passing and 11th in rushing. Third down has also taken a dip. After leading the NFL in that category in each of the last two years, they’re 24th so far and because of this downturn, they’re near the bottom of the league in average offensive snaps per game – a year ago, for reference, they were fifth.

Additionally, because of their heavy usage of the run and lack of production on early downs they’ve faced third-and-six or more on most of their drives.

McDermott and Brady also cost themselves a win two weeks ago while trying to throw three successive times within their own three-yard line with less than a minute to go and no timeouts. With Houston having all three of their timeouts, three straight runs would have forced Houston to burn them to get the ball back – meaning they wouldn’t have had one to use to stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal, which happened.

According to ESPN, the Bills became the only team in the last 45 years to be tied or winning in the last minute of the game, inside their own five-yard line and threw three straight passes. They’ll need to learn from that miscue going forward.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 14: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws the ball during an NFL football game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on October 14, 2024 in East Rutherford, NJ. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

12 STATS TO MUSE OVER

·         The Bills have compiled a road winning percentage of .659 (29-15) since 2019.

·         Since 2020 Buffalo has the best home record in the NFL – 34-9 including playoffs.

·         Allen is just two rushing touchdowns away from moving past O.J. Simpson and 10 away from surpassing Thurman Thomas for second and first all-time, respectively, in Bills annals.

·         According to Trumedia, the Bills faced man coverage on 32.7 percent of their snaps last year – the most in the NFL. However, heavy usage of man coverage isn’t foreign to the Bills’ offense. It’s been a staple against them over the last five years (48 percent in 2019, first, 35 percent in ’20, fifth, 33.3 percent in ’21, fourth and 29.3 percent in ’22, fifth), and it’s been no different in 2024 as they have gone against man coverage on one of the highest figures in the NFL.

·         Allen hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year – it’s the longest streak by a Bills quarterback to start a season in franchise annals.

·         Allen also has never lost three straight regular season games. According to Mike Catalana, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games in each of the last four years and their combined record after those losses is now 27-2.

·         A week ago Davis became the first rookie to lead the Bills in rushing and receiving in the same week since Ronnie Harmon did so in Week Eight of 1986 against New England. He also was the first Bills rookie running back with at least 150 yards from scrimmage since Marshawn Lynch recorded 160 in Week Nine of 2007.

·         Allen’s career record is 67-32.

·         Buffalo has rushed for touchdowns in eight straight games going back to 2023 and have the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Detroit Lions (19).

·         The Bills have gotten a sack in 25 consecutive road games – only Dallas has had a longer streak (28).

·         Knox became the fourth Bills’ tight end with 2,000 receiving yards, joining Pete Metzelaars, Jay Riemersma and Scott Chandler.

·         According to buffalobills.com, Buffalo has played against Tennessee five times in the regular season since 2017 – along with Kansas City, it’s the most games they’ve played against any non-AFC East team.