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TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF COMMANDERS-BUCCANEERS

Tony Fiorello

by Tony Fiorello

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 05: Head coach Dan Quinn of the Washington Commanders looks on against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 05, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)


Welcome to the 2024 NFL season’s Wild Card Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.


One of the NFC’s wild card games will take place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida as the Washington Commanders will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Here’s what you should know:

BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 13 Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) receives a pass from quarterback Jayden Daniels (5)] during the NFL game between the Washington Commanders and the Baltimore Ravens on October 13, 2024 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)


WASHINGTON HAS SOME OFFENSIVE PLAYMAKERS

Change is the theme in the nation’s capital, as new ownership (Josh Harris), a new general manager (Adam Peters), a new head coach (Dan Quinn) and a new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) have taken charge of the Washington Commanders and led them to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.


Kingsbury’s system, which borrows heavily from the Air Raid system, leans towards the usage of “10” and “11” personnel and two-tight end sets. He also likes to use three-by-one sets (three wide receivers on one side and another wideout or a tight end on the other) along with some shifts and motion to help his quarterbacks decipher coverages in the passing game.


After multiple seasons in which the Commanders had six different starters take turns under center (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Alex Smith, Sam Howell and the late Dwayne Haskins), the organization decided to start over and draft Jayden Daniels from LSU. Daniels is accurate, intelligent and throws a good deep ball while possessing poise and vision.


Daniels also has athleticism and mobility, and Washington also incorporates a lot of designed runs like zone reads, run-pass options, quarterback sweeps and lead draws to take advantage of his ability to make people miss in space.


Wide receiver Terry McLaurin is a nuanced route runner and has shown the ability to line up outside the numbers and in the slot. He is supplemented in the form of Dyami Brown, K.J. Osborn, Jamison Crowder, Luke McCaffrey, Olamide Zaccheaus and the injured Noah Brown. Tight end Zach Ertz has been rejuvenated in D.C. while posting his best numbers in three years.


Running back Austin Ekeler, who is a shifty ball-carrier and a threat as a pass-catcher out of the backfield and while split out, and Brian Robinson operate behind an offensive line that doesn’t have a lot of household names. Ex-Chief Andrew Wylie joins Brandon Coleman, Nick Allegretti and Tyer Bladasz while the inconsistent Sam Cosmi is their right guard.


Washington has had surprising success on this side of the ball. They ended 2024 seventh in total yards, 17th in passing, third in rushing and fifth in scoring.

ARLINGTON, TX - JANUARY 05: Bobby Wagner #54 of the Washington Commanders lines up before the snap during an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on January 5, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)


DEFENSE LEARNING A NEW SCHEME

In the past, Quinn – a former defensive coordinator in Seattle and Dallas and a head coach in Atlanta – a was a strong proponent of the Cover Three scheme (deep zone coverage on the outside with a safety in the box and a deep safety patrolling centerfield) but he has had excellent results while mixing in more single-high man coverages (Cover One) in recent years. He’ll also throw in some Cover Two zone looks on third down from time to time.


The Commanders’ defensive line has two building blocks with Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen (currently injured), veterans Dante Fowler, Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell and rookie Jer’Zhan Newton. Washington can win at the line of scrimmage with stunts, slants and twists to create confusion for rival offensive lines.


11-time All-Pro Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu are the team’s linebackers. Four-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore, former Miami Dolphins first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene, Mike Sainristil, Jeremy Chinn and Quan Martin make up Washington’s secondary.


The Commanders finished 2024 13th in total yards, third against the pass, tied for 11th in sacks and 18th in points surrendered. But they were third-last versus the run and tied for just 20th in takeaways.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 29: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers greets Mike Evans #13 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during warmups before the game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on December 29, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)


BUCS’ OFFENSE IS HUMMING

The last few years have been seasons of change for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – especially on offense. Names who have headed out the door over the last two years include Bruce Arians, Byron Leftwich, Dave Canales, Tom Brady, Donovan Smith, Alex Cappa, Ted Larsen, Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate and Leonard Fournette. That’s a lot of talent – some will be headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in a few years – and the Bucs, naturally, have had to start over on this side of the ball.


One of the most important offensive figures that has arrived on Florida’s West Coast over the last two seasons is offensive play caller Liam Cohen. Cohen, a former coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams, has brought a version of Sean McVay’s block of the West Coast offense to the Bucs and the scheme has been effective. It’s one with plenty of under-center play-action, shifts, motions, high-low concepts and downfield option routes with defined reads.


The other is signal caller Baker Mayfield. Mayfield, the first overall draft pick in 2018, had a solid start in the pros with the Cleveland Browns but eventually flamed out there. After short stints with the Rams and Carolina Panthers, Mayfield has resurrected his career by the Gulf of Mexico by setting career highs in multiple categories, and has very good pocket movement while keeping his eyes downfield while going through his progressions.


Mayfield is known for being an aggressive downfield passer. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “(Mayfield) extends plays with his feet, but only when necessary, relying first on his outstanding timing and accuracy, especially on seam balls and underneath throws from spread formations. More impressive are the passes Mayfield does not make; he has a veteran’s sense for getting off of bad reads. And when he does get fooled into the occasional turnover, he continues to be aggressive.”


Helping Mayfield out is a pair of dangerous options in the passing game. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, two fast and big-bodied red zone targets, are among the NFL’s best one-two punches. They’re especially effective in three-by-one trips formations (with Evans as the backside receiver) and in bunch with Godwin as the point man, but Godwin is out for the season after suffering a dislocated ankle. In his place are Jalen McMillan and former New York Giant Sterling Shepard. Tight end Cade Otton is a pass-catching threat as well as a good blocker, and he and Payne Durham operate out of many “12” personnel packages (one back, two tight ends).


The three-headed monster of Bucky Irving (who displays good power), Rachaad White (a solid receiver) and Sean Tucker runs behind an offensive line composed of Tristan Wirfs, Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke, especially on counter plays. Beyond Wirfs and Goedeke, the interior line has been up and down.


One year after Tampa Bay’s offense was near the bottom of the NFL in points scored (20th), total yards (23rd), rushing yards (last) and passing (17th), they are third in total yards and rushing, and fourth in passing and scoring.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 21: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens is sacked by Antoine Winfield Jr. #31 and Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 21, 2024 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)


TAMPA’S DEFENSE IS AGGRESSIVE AND COMPLEX

Head coach Todd Bowles – one of the NFL’s better defensive minds – runs a 3-4 scheme that is characterized by multiple fronts and blitzes and uses plenty of stunts and slants at the line of scrimmage to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks. On the back end, Bowles prefers disguised coverages defined by Cover Four and Three and man-press coverage to take away quick throws and disrupt timing between wideouts and pass distributors – a stark contrast to the old “Tampa Two” zone coverage that the Buccaneers leaned on for years.


Like their offense, the Bucs have had a bit of a changing of the guard on defense. Gone are the likes of Devin White, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Steve McClendon, but it seems as if Bowles and company have survived these losses better than on the other side of the ball.


Tampa Bay has an excellent front-seven up front. Vita Vea is the team’s top lineman and may very well be the best 3-4 nose tackle in all of football. He is joined by Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall. Shaq Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Yaya Diaby and Anthony Nelson are at outside linebacker.


Inside linebacker Lavonte David has been one of the best at his position in pro football for years and he is excellent in coverage and blitzing. He’s joined by J.J. Russell. In the secondary, beyond one of the NFL’s better safeties in Antoine Winfield Jr., his counterpart Tykee Smith (their backups include veterans Mike Edwards and Jordan Whitehead, who is out for the season) and cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum leave a bit to be desired – making it imperative that teams have success in getting the ball out to their playmakers on hot routes to take advantage of their aggressiveness.


A constant theme for this side of the ball since 2020, the Bucs were good in certain areas and struggled in others. They finished 2024 tied for 16th in takeaways, 16th in points allowed, 18th in total yards given up and 29th versus the pass, but fourth against the run and tied for sixth in sacks. They’re also in the playoffs for the fifth straight year, the only NFC team to pull off the feat.

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