TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF PACKERS-COWBOYS

by Tony Fiorello

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 13: Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy talks with Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field on November 13, 2022 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season’s Wild Card Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

One of the NFC’s wild card games will take place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas as the Green Bay Packers will face the Dallas Cowboys. Here’s what you should know:

Football: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) in action, throws the football CeeDee Lamb (88) vs Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia, PA 11/5/2023 CREDIT: Erick W. Rasco (Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (Set Number: X164454 TK1)

COWBOYS’ OFFENSE BEST IT’S EVER BEEN UNDER MCCARTHY

The foundation of Dallas’ passing attack was the vertical-based Air Coryell system for the better part of three decades, but with the hire of former Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy in 2020 their offense has gotten a facelift. McCarthy’s version of the West Coast offense yielded solid results with Dallas being 14th in the NFL in passing, ninth in rushing, 11th in total offense and fourth in scoring a year ago, and this season has been even better. The Cowboys ended 2023 first in scoring, fifth in total yards, third in passing and 14th in rushing, and have turned the ball over just 16 times all year which was tied for the second-lowest mark in the NFL.

McCarthy has added more formations, motions and intricate route combinations (such as double posts, or “dino” concepts) to this attack, a refreshing change for an offense that previously utilized static formations and isolation routes that relied on a receiver’s talent to get open. The trigger man for his system is Dak Prescott, whose mobility helps Dallas remain dangerous on play-action, bootlegs, rollouts, zone-reads and RPOs – all plays that are built off the run.

Prescott is an interesting quarterback to evaluate. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Prescott does many things well; he commands the field in spread-empty formations, makes the occasional big-time throw and poses a threat as a perimeter runner, keeping edge defenders from attacking down on Dallas’ zone runs….. Then there are the negatives. Prescott’s arm is merely adequate, and he’s not always great at reading a field quickly.”

Prescott’s top weapon in the passing game is CeeDee Lamb, who excels both on the boundary and in the slot and is a very good route runner. The problem for the Cowboys is that he’s their only consistent receiving option, as Michael Gallup – who is normally their boundary ‘X’ receiver – is up-and-down and the well-traveled Brandin Cooks is a one-trick pony as a deep threat. Tony Pollard is a versatile and explosive running back who can align all over the formation and Jake Ferguson has emerged as a quality starting tight end.

Pollard operates behind one of the league’s better offensive lines. Anchored by perennial All-Pros Tyron Smith and Zack Martin plus Tyler Smith, Tyler Bladasz and Terrence Steele, this unit performs well on man and zone-based running plays.

Kicker Brandon Aubrey has been near-automatic as a rookie, having entered Week 18 35-for-35 on field goals before missing twice and falling short of the league record for most field goals made without a miss (former Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt was 37-for-37 in 2003).

ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 10: Micah Parsons #11 of the Dallas Cowboys lines up before a play during an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

DALLAS DEFENSE BUILT OFF SIMPLICITY AND AGGRESSION

In the past, former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator and Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was a strong proponent of the Cover Three scheme (deep zone coverage on the outside with a safety in the box and a deep safety patrolling centerfield) but he has had excellent results in Big D while mixing in more single-high man coverages (Cover One) in recent years. No one uses more Cover One in the NFL than Dallas and they’ll also throw in some Cover Two zone looks on third down from time to time.

While the Cowboys weren’t great against the run in 2022 (22nd), they were ranked eighth against the pass, third in sacks, fifth in points allowed and tied for seventh in interceptions. This year they’ve been better, as they are fifth in points allowed, total yards given up and against the pass, 16th versus the run, tied for 13th in sacks and tied for eighth in interceptions, but two flaws remain. Dallas is 20th in red zone percentage and they’re also susceptible to pre-snap motion – they’re one of the best in the NFL at defending against plays with no motion and one of the worst against motion, according to ESPN.

Dallas’ athletic defensive line – led by Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Jonathan Hankins, Osa Odighizuwa, Dante Fowler Jr. and rookie Mazi Smith – relies on slants, stunts and twists at the line of scrimmage to get to the quarterback. They also use them against the run, which helps shut down multiple gaps at once, while also executing multiple pressure concepts and defensive fronts.

Helping at the second level are linebackers Micah Parsons, Leighton Vander Esch (whose career may be over after a neck injury), Damone Clark and Markquese Bell, who are intelligent, fast and good in run support and in pass coverage. Parsons may be the league’s best pass rusher with a combination of violent hands, bend, flexibility, burst and explosiveness, and is versatile enough to execute at a high level at any position at the line of scrimmage.

The Cowboys are led in their secondary by Trevon Diggs (out for the season with a torn ACL), Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland, who has taken advantage of Diggs’ absence in a big way. His nine interceptions led the league and had five pick-sixes, an NFL single-season record. Most of them have come by Bland gambling and waiting on specific routes to develop, but he can be beaten by wide receivers using double moves. Dallas’ safeties are the rangy Malik Hooker, Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson.

Dallas has a 16-game winning streak at home, and this will be the ninth playoff meeting all-time between the Cowboys and Packers – tied with Cowboys-49ers, Cowboys-Rams and Packers-49ers for the most playoff meetings ever between NFL teams.

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - DECEMBER 31: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers hands the ball off in the second quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

PACKERS’ OFFENSE TALENTED, BUT VERY YOUNG

After 13 years, four trips to the NFC Championship Game and a Super Bowl victory in 2010, longtime Packers coach Mike McCarthy was let go by Green Bay after 2018. A sense of staleness had grown around the franchise and general manager Brian Gutekunst sought to revive his team with new blood in the form of Matt LaFleur, who has taken “Titletown” to a pair of conference championship game appearances.

The fifth-year head coach was the Tennessee Titans’ play-caller in 2018 and prior to his time in the Music City, LaFleur ran Sean McVay’s offense for the Los Angeles Rams. McVay and LaFleur go back even further than that too, with both spending time working for Mike Shanahan in Washington and LaFleur also served on the staffs of his pupils – Gary Kubiak in Houston and Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta.

Like his former colleagues, LaFleur has used a playbook that emphasizes a running game built around zone-blocking (especially to the outside on “stretch” plays) and passes that are created off the threat of run-action. It’s a West Coast-style of offense that can create a lot of big plays down the field from craftily designed routes that work off one another, and the skill position players often line up in reduced splits to the line of scrimmage to become both extra blockers on runs and to have more room to run routes on the field. Additionally, unlike McCarthy’s matchup-based system, LaFleur’s playbook relies more on the design of his plays and the progressions of the quarterback – and it’s taken well to this roster.

For the first four years of the LaFleur regime, the Packers’ offense continued to run through quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That partnership, however, is no more after Rodgers (like his predecessor, Brett Favre) was traded to the New York Jets in the spring for draft pick compensation. Waiting in the wings was first-year starter Jordan Love, who had some big shoes to fill after a combined 31 years of Hall of Fame excellence preceded him under center.

Like Rodgers, who also had to wait three years before he got his shot to replace Favre, Love has excelled after taking over as Green Bay’s starting quarterback with his accuracy and touch while remaining an aggressive downfield thrower. After a rough first half of the 2023 season (with just 14 touchdowns and 10 picks in nine games), Love has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception in his last eight starts – finishing the campaign with 32 scores and 11 picks while completing 64.2 percent of his throws. He also showed off his athleticism while finding paydirt four times when rushing.

For the last several years, Rodgers and Love's wide receivers included an extraordinary route runner in Davante Adams (who is especially adept on double moves and was a favorite target on third down), Marques Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and all could carry out Green Bay's favorite routes. Slants, posts and back-shoulder fades are staples of the Packers’ offense, and not only do they excel at such pass-patterns but they also had a great feel for how to get open when plays break down – especially Adams, who could also play in the slot.

However, following a trade of Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and Valdes-Scantling bringing his speed to Kansas City via free agency, the Packers decided to rebuild this group. Second-year man Romeo Doubs and rookies Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have stepped up in the absence of Christian Watson, who followed up a solid rookie year with an injury-plagued second season. When healthy Watson provides speed, physicality and good route-running ability. Green Bay’s tight ends also occasionally get in on the action – especially in the red zone – and those duties fall to rookies Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave.

The Packers also boast threats on the ground. Aaron Jones is Green Bay’s starter in the backfield and is adept both on the ground with three 1,000-yard rushing seasons under his belt and through the air, as evidenced by his setting career-highs in receptions (59) a year ago. His backup, the powerful A.J. Dillon, can also get the job done.

Executing blocks for Jones and company are veterans David Bakhtiari – one of the best left tackles at the professional level when healthy – 2020 Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers and youngsters Jon Runyan and Zach Tom. Bakhtiari, however, is once again injured, and has been replaced by Rasheed Walker.

The Packers, the youngest team in the NFL in terms of average age (25.13 years, the fifth-youngest team ever to reach the postseason), ended 2023 11th in total offense, 12th in passing and scoring, and 15th in rushing. They also allowed the third-least amount of sacks, only Buffalo and Kansas City surrendered less.

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 05: Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) lines up against Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field on November 5, 2023 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

GREEN BAY’S DEFENSE IS SOUND, BUT HAVING ISSUES

Coordinator Joe Barry – a former defensive play caller in Detroit and Washington – was hired by LaFleur two years ago in hopes of bringing a different approach than Mike Pettine once did. While Pettine was a fan of overload blitzes, exotic pressure schemes and man-press coverage, Barry mainly incorporates four-man rushes and zone coverages with two deep safeties – mainly Cover Two and Four (although he’s mixed in more single-high looks recently).

The defensive backs that are integral to Barry’s secondary are All-Pro Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes (who has dealt with a hamstring injury all season), Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine and Keisean Nixon at cornerback and a pair of versatile safeties in Darnell Savage and Jonathan Owens. The team’s depth on the back end is imperative to the team, as Green Bay loves to use subpackages (especially dime, 4-2 and 5-1 nickel).

Rashan Gary and Preston Smith are one of the better pass rush duos in the NFL when healthy. Joining them at linebacker are the speedy De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker. Kenny Clark, who is very athletic for his 315-pound frame, Devonte Wyatt and T.J. Slaton are Green Bay’s best defensive linemen.

2023 saw the Packers give up the 17th-most total yards, the ninth-least amount of passing yards, and they were 10th in points allowed. But they were the fifth-worst team against the run, 16th in sacks and just 23rd in takeaways.