TONY’S TAKE – A PREVIEW OF RAVENS-CHIEFS

by Tony Fiorello

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens greets head coach Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs prior to the game at M&T Bank Stadium on September 19, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend. Here at Buffalo Sports Page we will attempt to inform and educate our readers about the upcoming playoff games and what each team might do to emerge victorious.

This season’s AFC Championship Game will take place at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland as the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Baltimore Ravens. Here’s what you should know:

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - NOVEMBER 05: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens throws a pass to Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks at M&T Bank Stadium on November 05, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

RAVENS WILL RUN, RUN AND RUN SOME MORE

Before the 2019 season began, longtime Ravens head coach John Harbaugh promoted former Bills and San Francisco 49ers offensive play-caller Greg Roman to replace the outgoing Marty Mornhinweg. Roman was charged with maximizing the talent at his disposal and helped quarterback Lamar Jackson win the league’s Most Valuable Player award that same season (and he may win it again this year after helping Baltimore finish with a league-best 13-4 record).

Jackson is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in pro football. According to Bucky Brooks of nfl.com, “As a passer, Jackson has shown tremendous progress. He has significantly improved his completion rate and passer rating while displaying a better overall feel for the game from the pocket. He’s at his best throwing the ball down the seams or on in-breaking routes between the numbers on traditional dropbacks and play-action passes. Although he remains a work in progress on throws to the outside, the Ravens have built their offense around the strengths of his game and by allowing him to be himself.”

As much as Baltimore dominated on the ground through the years, however, the same couldn’t be said about their passing attack which was too easy to stop. This led to the ouster of Roman in favor of Todd Monken, a former coordinator in Tampa Bay and Cleveland who had helped the Georgia Bulldogs win back-to-back national championships at the college level.

Monken helps Jackson through clever usage of offensive sets, play-action and route concepts with defined reads in order to give him confidence right off the bat. Those passes are typically thrown to wide receivers like speedsters Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay and rookie Zay Flowers. Veterans Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor have provided depth and experience.

Used even more than their receivers are tight ends Mark Andrews (who can attack both the intermediate and vertical levels of defenses) and Isaiah Likely. Those two will be on the field at any given time, as the Ravens are one of the league leaders in usage of “12” (one back, two tight ends), “22” (two backs, two tight ends), “21” (two backs, one tight end) and “13” (one back, three tight ends) personnel. But they aren’t just weapons in the passing game – they’re also utilized heavily on the ground as blockers for Jackson and running backs Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Dalvin Cook, J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell (the latter two are done for the season with various injuries) and fullback Patrick Ricard.

Roman had experience working with mobile quarterbacks like Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick and had previously installed successful concepts for both of his former signal-callers like sweeps, zone-read options, triple options, quarterback counters and RPOs. Jackson used those same ideas and took them to another level in 2019, as he shattered Michael Vick’s league record for rushing yards in a season by a quarterback and became the first passer in NFL history to run for more than 1,000 yards and throw for 35 or more touchdowns. Jackson continues to be one of the league’s most dangerous running threats and Monken has helped by wisely keeping many of their rushing schemes from the past.

The same year that Jackson was named MVP, the Ravens also became the first team to average 200 rushing and passing yards per game in one campaign and set a new standard for rushing yardage in a season with 3,296. 2020 saw many of the same results, as Jackson became the first signal caller to rush for 1,000 yards in consecutive years and Baltimore also put up 3,071 yards – the first team ever to accumulate 3,000 yards on the ground in back-to-back years. 2021’s output wasn’t quite as good as in past years due to multiple injuries, but the Ravens ended the 2022 campaign with 2,720 yards rushing (good for second-best in the NFL) and led the league in rushing again in 2023.

Baltimore’s offensive line is characterized by man-blocking, pulling guards and power runs, and stalwarts Ronnie Stanley, Morgan Moses, Kevin Zeitler, John Simpson and Tyler Linderbaum are the team’s building blocks up front. Kicker Justin Tucker remains one of the league’s elite at his position.

In addition to their running prowess the Ravens’ offense has been solid in other areas this year. They were sixth in total yards and fourth in scoring but just 21st in passing, additionally they became just the third team in the Super Bowl era (joining the 1985 Chicago Bears and 1972 Miami Dolphins) to score 25-plus points-per-game while leading the NFL in rushing offense and scoring defense.

Baltimore is also the second team (along with the 2007 New England Patriots) with a point differential of 100 or greater against other playoff teams, and the Ravens became the fourth team since 1970 with a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the NFL’s first-ranked scoring defense. The previous three teams each won a Super Bowl (the ‘72 Dolphins, ’78 Pittsburgh Steelers and ’96 Green Bay Packers all accomplished the feat).

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JANUARY 20: Roquan Smith #0 and linebacker Patrick Queen #6 of the Baltimore Ravens react during an NFL Divisional Round playoff game against the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium on January 20, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images)

BALTIMORE’S DEFENSE STILL AN EXCELLENT UNIT

Traditionally the more-discussed unit on their team thanks to legendary coaches and players on that side of the ball, Baltimore’s defense is being overshadowed for once. Not to be outdone by their counterparts on offense, the Ravens continue to have one of the better group of defenders in football – finishing 2023 sixth in total defense, first in sacks, points allowed and takeaways (becoming the first defense ever to accomplish all three in one year), 14th against the run and seventh in defending the pass. They do all of this while being one of the most effective blitzing defenses in the NFL and mostly do so on overload and fire zone rushes out of single-high coverage looks.

Coordinated by Mike MacDonald, the Ravens have never been lacking in talent among their front seven and this year has been no exception. Defensive linemen Michael Pierce, Jadeveon Clowney and Justin Madubuike are solid run-stuffers (Madubuike has been a revelation in the pass rush department with 13.5 sacks) and veterans Odafe Oweh, Tyus Bowser (out with a torn Achilles tendon) and Kyle Van Noy are the team’s best outside linebackers. Patrick Queen and former Chicago Bear Roquan Smith are their inside linebackers and are one of the best duos in the NFL – they can cover and stop the run with ease out of multiple front looks – and rookie Trenton Simpson backs them up.

Baltimore’s secondary is as talented as ever, especially at cornerback. MacDonald has plenty of chess pieces at cornerback in Marlon Humphrey (who is adept at playing in the slot and on the boundary), Brandon Stephens and Ronald Darby. All can execute man and zone coverages well. Safeties Marcus Williams, Geno Stone and Kyle Hamilton are moved around often in pre-snap disguises and are used often in dime and “big” nickel packages – Hamilton is effective in the slot and is a good blitzer.

The Ravens are in the AFC Championship Game for the fifth time in their history and the city of Baltimore will host it for the first time since January 1971, when the Colts defeated the Oakland Raiders (the four previous times the Ravens got this far, all were played on the road). They will attempt to reach the Super Bowl for the third time, joining the 2000 and 2012 squads.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 13: (L-R) Isiah Pacheco #10, Travis Kelce #87 and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs stand on the field before the AFC Wild Card Playoffs against the Miami Dolphins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

CHIEFS’ OFFENSE IS TYPICALLY DANGEROUS, BUT SLOWING A BIT

Andy Reid’s version of the West Coast offense has taken on many forms over the years. In Philadelphia his passing game with quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick was vertical-based to take advantage of their arm strength, conversely with Alex Smith it became conservative and horizontal.

Now with Patrick Mahomes under center it has returned to its downfield version. The system has also incorporated many college concepts in recent years and heavily relies on the design of the play to get people open. According to former MMQB/SI writer Andy Benoit, “Kansas City’s passing game is unique because it doesn’t depend on wide receivers winning one-on-one battles outside. The scheme relies on route combinations and creating opportunities for tight ends and running backs. This means the throws are more about timing than velocity.

“Reid features presnap motion, misdirection and multi-option reads. Those tactics put a defense on its heels by presenting the illusion of complexity, but they can transition into traditional concepts once the ball is snapped…. (they) aim to isolate specific defenders – often linebackers – present them with run/pass assignment conflicts and also get defenders flowing one way as the ball goes another.”

For years Kansas City employed wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is perhaps the league’s fastest player and can line up anywhere – out wide, in the backfield and in the slot, where he is especially dangerous on post routes out of trips formations. Following a trade to the Miami Dolphins following the 2021 season, Reid and general manager Brett Veach decided to replace him by committee.

Although they don’t boast quite the same speed as Hill does, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore give the Chiefs a trio who can beat anyone vertically and all are used liberally in motion by Reid. Rookie Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney (he and Moore are both out for Sunday), Justin Watson, Justyn Ross and Richie James have also gotten in on the action this year to varying degrees and Reid also likes to give his wideouts reduced splits along the line of scrimmage to use defenders’ leverage against them and present two-way go’s. However, they have struggled this year against man coverage and are dropping passes at the highest rate in the NFL.

Travis Kelce, one of the best talents at his position, is versatile and can align in different ways in the formation (especially as the lone receiver on the backside in bunch – otherwise known as the boundary ‘X’ receiver). Perhaps the most athletic tight end in football, he can beat most defensive backs and linebackers on many different routes, especially on corners, sticks and crossers and is excellent at creating yards after the catch.

Kelce set a record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,416 in 2020 and continues to remain his usual elite self – he needs just seven catches to pass Jerry Rice for the most in playoff history. Backups Noah Grey, Jody Fortson (out with an injury) and Blake Bell’s roles have expanded as Kansas City has incorporated more formations featuring multiple tight ends (a year ago they used multi-tight end packages on more than 40 percent of their snaps).

In 2020 the Chiefs invested at running back by selecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire from LSU in the first round, hoping to upgrade a position that previously relied on veterans Damien Williams and former Eagle and Bill LeSean McCoy. Edwards-Helaire, however, has been injured and ineffective for most of his career – leading to Isiah Pacheco taking over. The powerful Pacheco (a downhill, north-south type of runner) and Jerick McKinnon are adept at hurting teams not just on the ground but through the air as well, especially on screen passes, and McKinnon has turned into an effective red zone weapon.

Those backs and Mahomes operate behind an offensive line that has undergone many changes over the last few years. Injuries and underperformance have seen the Chiefs say goodbye to names like Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Austin Reiter, Kelechi Osemele, Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie and hello to new faces like All-Pro Joe Thuney (out for Sunday with a pectoral injury), Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Smith and Taylor haven’t quite worked out so far – with the aging Smith being in and out of the lineup due to various ailments and Taylor underachieving, Reid has been using his tight ends and backs to help in pass protection more often (Taylor has taken more penalties than anyone in the NFL this season). Wanya Morris, who has filled in at tackle from time to time, has some physical traits (size, long arms) but is considered a project due to a lack of technique.

The widespread comparisons of Mahomes to Brett Favre aren’t unfounded, as the former possesses most of the latter’s attributes – a cannon for an arm, an uncanny ability to extend plays and good mobility and intelligence, plus a willingness to fit passes into tight windows. But he hasn’t always played the way his coaches want him to.

From time to time Mahomes shows too much unnecessary movement both in and outside the pocket due to anticipating pressure that isn’t there, sloppy footwork and not playing within the timing and structure of Reid’s attack. He also sometimes doesn’t take what defenses give him coverage-wise and forces plays down the field that don’t need to be.

When this happens, Reid usually gets Mahomes to settle down by incorporating more short and intermediate concepts like “smash” and “flood” – resulting in him being more decisive and his offense becoming more rhythm-based and less vertical. His mechanics also need touching up at times – especially by holding the ball higher so he can throw quicker and fixing his lower body base.

A year ago the Chiefs’ offense was their usual lethal selves, ending 2022 first in total yards, points scored and passing, but 20th in rushing. This year they’ve fallen off a bit – 15th in points (21.8, the lowest in the Mahomes era), ninth in total yards, sixth in passing and 19th in rushing are usually not bad numbers for anyone, but given Kansas City’s lofty standards they should be better.

KANSAS CITY, MO - JANUARY 13: Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) before the snap in the first quarter of an AFC Wild Card playoff game between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs on Jan 13, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

KANSAS CITY’S DEFENSE ON THE REBOUND

From 2013 through 2018 the Chiefs’ defense was conducted by Bob Sutton, a former longtime assistant with the New York Jets. During the first three seasons Sutton applied his scheme in Kansas City the Chiefs had an upper-echelon unit, but between 2016-18 it took a nosedive – bottoming out in ’18 by finishing the regular season in the bottom-half of the league in nearly every statistical category.

Reid promptly replaced Sutton with one of his old assistants from Philadelphia in Steve Spagnuolo. “Spags”, a former head coach with the Rams and Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator with the New York Giants, implemented a 4-3 system characterized by cleverly disguised five-man overload blitzes and coverages involving mainly Cover One, Two, Zero and two-deep man with press technique by the cornerbacks and the safeties rotating before the snap. They also blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

The biggest key to Kansas City’s defense used to be former Arizona Cardinal and Houston Texan Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu is one of the most versatile back-end defenders in football, as evidenced by his many snaps at slot cornerback, box safety, nickel/dime linebacker, free safety and outside cornerback. His athleticism and intelligence were valuable to the Chiefs – so valuable to the point where he was mainly used as the team’s middle hole defender in Cover Two zone and not a linebacker. But Mathieu left in free agency for the New Orleans Saints a year ago along with fellow safety Daniel Sorenson, and in their place now are ex-Texan Justin Reid (who matches up well with tight ends) and Bryan Cook (who is out for Sunday and will be replaced by Mike Edwards).

The Chiefs also underwent a makeover at cornerback. Veterans Charvarius Ward, Mike Hughes, Rashad Fenton and DeAndre Baker are gone and L’Jarius Sneed is now joined by youngsters Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson. This group is mainly used by Spagnuolo in dime packages (they utilize it at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL) with Sneed and Watson on the outside and McDuffie blitzing from the slot.

The Chiefs’ defensive line is the most talented part of this unit. All-Pro Chris Jones is one of the best defensive linemen in the league and is their linchpin thanks to his combination of burst and hand usage off the line of scrimmage. Derrick Nnadi (out for Sunday), Mike Danna and George Karlaftis are the team’s other contributors in their front four and all are versatile. At linebacker Kansas City employs Nick Bolton – who is their best second-level defender – Willie Gay (out for Sunday) and Drue Tranquill. Bolton is smart and athletic, and Tranquill excels in zone coverage.

Over the last few years the results from Spags’ defense were uneven, ranging anywhere from great to good to mediocre in multiple categories. Although 18th against the run and 27th in takeaways, his defense this season has been sublime ranking second in points allowed (17.3, the lowest of any Reid-coached team since the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles), second in total yards given up, fourth against the pass and second in sacks. The Chiefs are in their 10th AFC/AFL title game overall (and their sixth straight) and are trying to reach the Super Bowl for a sixth time going back to 1966 and for the fourth time in five years.